Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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I’ll repeat my statement from several days ago. Brazier is going to get DFAd before Ort.
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That’s not how it works. It’s an insanely small sample size. A large variance in a situation like this might be a bad catcher who would have allowed 1 more run in 30 innings, but instead he gave up 10 more in 30 innings; Which may easily be due to other factors such as the pitcher. That’s a very large variance, that you’re using for McGuire, in an insanely small sample size. Saying things like and a paraphrase “McGuire gives up 3 more runs a game” is stating a very large variance in a sample size.
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Told ya'll not to give up on Duran.
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That's statistics 101. The smaller the sample size the more likely an outcome will vary from the mean. Hence, higher variances.
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Easy, they will win a few more games above .500 and be a few games out from a wildcard. If more goes right than wrong maybe more. That's how. I'm not betting on it, but I'm rooting for it, and when you live in a world that isn't binary, and everything isn't black and white you can imagine a scenario where they win 90 games, and yes one where they stink and win 70. I would like to formally apologize for not being as doom and gloomy as everyone else.
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Yeah I knew it wasn’t pretty. I’m happy we didn’t resign Wacha, but we could of used an upgrade not a Kluber
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I don't remember I only drove by it twice, it's outside of Tampa Bay right off the highway and there doesn't seem to be much in the area, at first glance it would look like the traffic in/out would be easy. But...It's not like I got off the highway and tried going to a game so I don't really know.
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You would think with such poor attendance the drive in and out would be pretty easy.
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And I believe it's been said that what little relevance CERA does have on pitching performance (which is some just very little) takes a much larger sample size than most other stats. Which begs the question....why do we keep nitpicking his every start? "today McGuire gave up 3 more runs than he otherwise would have" but if there's anything to CERA we'd expect an elite catcher to save a run every week or two.....not 3 day.
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If the Sox listened to me from my armchair we'd have Senga over Kluber, Nimmo over Yoshida, Kike over Duvall (because he'd be in CF) and Swanson over whatever our SS is. Probably wouldn't have signed Martin and we'd be right below the luxury tax. Probably with a few more wins as well. But, things can change quick. It is a SSS. Also the early returns on Senga look good, but you have to think those walks are going to catch up to him eventually.
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Yes, they will.
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A large variance in small sample size is actually direct evidence that the small sample size is..... too small.
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And there's plenty of articles that Praise McGuires defense, and stats to back it up...except for CERA....this one year.....in a tiny tiny sample size....that has been largely discredited. McGuire is a good defensive catcher, he is average to above average at just about everything behind the plate from framing, blocking, and his pop times. With the later being a little down this year. AND he's one of the only guys hitting. Also, a typical starting catcher isn't going to give you as many games as a healthy starting SS or any other position player. A catcher might start 120 games a year and thats GOOD, but if your SS did that you'd be saying he can't stay on the field. So even if Wong starts more McGuire is going to be a better 2nd than just about anyone in the league. it's really perplexing that we are talking so much about Reese.
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This team might not be that good, but they're playing mediocre with some of their best players (reportedly) out. Duvall, Story, and Mondesi for however games we get him healthy this year conceivably should make this team much better. Even if they have bad or down years, it's very reasonable to assume that all of Kike, Casas, Arroyo, and Yoshida are not going to be as horrible as they've been so far. With that in mind, I think the team has potential. They're not good like Toronto, and Tampa Bay but if they stay healthy they will compete for a WC this year.
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Even in the article, they state that the study revolves around figuring out WHY some catchers have a better CERA and they point to metrics that are more measurable. Such as throwing out base runners, framing, blocking etc. If you use Statcast, all their data from all years then Reese is 34th out of 219 catchers in framing and 24th out of 73 in blocking skills. His pop times used to be elite but have taken a tick down this year which is the only thing I find concering so far but it's such a small sample size. He's an average to above-average defender, not gold glove caliber but by all means, he can catch. Wong seems to have the makings of a plus defender behind the plate too. I'm thoroughly convinced our pitching woes are on the pitchers. I actually think the McGuire/Wong combo is one of the seasons bright spots so far.
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Had one good game and stunk the rest of the way? Kluber did that too
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Sorry…12 years
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Yes 8 years old, CERA has been thrown out the window since then. But hey….one guy. Or two now
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And Reese is one of the only guys on the team hitting. Maybe he’s only hitting though because the other catchers suck too
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They started finding really bad defensive catchers would have very low CERAs with good pitchers. Which is why CERA was a flash in the pan stat. no one uses CERA
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Kluber sucks; is washed up, and can’t even throw out of the 80’s. Putting yesterdays game on Reese is ridiculous. He’d have sucked just as much with anyone behind the plate.
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According to ONE stat that is highly regarded as garbage. Did Reese like steal your wife or kick your dog or something?
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So maybe we just need to get the best catcher and pay s*** pitchers. Yes it’s a coincidence, baseball is like that, and CERA has been proven time time again to not only be a poor indicator but to need a larger sample size than any other stat to have any type of correlation. Its variance in a SSS is higher than just about anything else. By all accounts, scouting and metrics, McGuire has been a plus defender in his young career. This just feels like looking for something and rolling with it. McGuire is fine, CERA is garbage.
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An earlier Sox prospects podcast they talked about Duran. They talked about despite his struggles they see a potential MLB future for him. He made some adjustments, looked good in camp, and the Sox were going to let him have a little sustained success in AAA so they could keep other guys on the roster. Well, now he’s making his case. SSS, and the defense is still iffy. But he’s looking better.
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It’s time to move Kluber to the bullpen, let him take the swing man role. Maybe he gets one more start, and that’s being generous.