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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aroldis-chapman-re-ups-with-the-red-sox/ According to fangraphs, you appear to be correct. My bad everyone. Still, I think you're right that a deal is worth exploring. 2027 may be a short year, and Chapman will be a 39 year old. If team wants to give us an arm and a leg for him now it should still be explored.
  2. Hugh2
    Do you have a link?
  3. Hugh2
    They gave him a contract extension in season not during FA.
  4. Hugh2
    Isn't that how options typically work? you have the "OPTION" but not the "OBLIGATION" to take a certain course of action. Unless someone can correct me and show me where I'm wrong and this mutual option that becomes a teams option if he pitches over 40? That doesn't make sense but for good measure I've been looking into this and that does not seem to be the case. The odds are very strong that Chapman walks out that door at seasons end and is not coming back. A closer pitching at an elite level is one of the most highly coveted things at the trade deadline, and if this team is out of it, it would be roster malpractice to not trade him.
  5. Hugh2
    How much would an elite closer get paid in free agency for one year? Probably more than $13 million. I don't think.....I'm pretty certain there is.
  6. Hugh2
    Oh.....is it a team option?
  7. Hugh2
    Do we actually believe Chapman is going to exercise that option?
  8. Hugh2
    Guaranteed to whom? Doesn't Chapman have the option to decline the option and go to free agency and get more money? What are the odds he picks it up? If there's more money for him on the open market is going to stay here because this team is such a winner?
  9. Hugh2
    Who is worrying? I'm not worrying. I think the liklihood that Chapman opts into a contract are extremly small and he should be considered a guy not part of this core post 2026 and should be traded......if we are sellers.
  10. Hugh2
    Correction: it's a mutual option IF it does not vest, which is almost certainly the case if it does not. If Chapman doesn't hit 40 IP something seriously went wrong. If the option vests, certainly Chapman is going to earn himself much more than 12.7 per year given the year he's having this year. Even at his age, if he performs at this level all year someone is giving him 20 million for a year.
  11. Hugh2
    No, it's a vesting mutual option. If it doesn't vest theres no option. It's either a mutual option or no option at all and mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties.
  12. Hugh2
    Oh, absolutely 100% We could be living in a completely different world in 5-6 weeks from now. But if we are sitting here at the end of July and the Sox are sub .500 and not competing for a wild card they need to sell. No more of this hugging the line crap.
  13. Hugh2
    Yes, FREE AGENT is not the same thing as having a mutual option. The whole point of this exercise in determining who to sell is to list the expiring contracts. ADD: I've also edited my comment to state the mutual option is for next year 2027, not 2028. I wasn't quick enough for you.
  14. Hugh2
    It's not a slam dunk that Chapman and the Sox wouldn't both exercise the option for 2027 but it's pretty close to it. He will be 39 in 2027. If he's still good, and the Sox would want to exercise the option some team out there would pay more than 12.7 million for one year. Why would we assume he would be here for 2027?
  15. Hugh2
    Because after this season he's a free agent. He has a mutual option for 27, which means BOTH him and the team have to exercise it......which hardly ever happens in such scenarios.
  16. Hugh2
    I was wrong on Contreras, but Chapman is much more certain to be gone after this season. Without much playoff hope in 2026.....what should we keep Chapman and lose him for nothing?
  17. Hugh2
    I made an error, I thought it was a mutual option, it's a team option. Yes, I'd say it's much higher. Well, this takes Contreras off the "must trade list" for certain but I would certainly still entertain offers.
  18. Hugh2
    could be, but what are the odds? less than 10% certianly. For all practical purposes I'd consider him here thru 27'
  19. Hugh2
    I wouldn't. But I do wonder if he's hurt. YOu don't go from having some of the best range in baseball to having the range of "sylvester stallone" in one year from normal decline. He's battling something. If that's something he can easily recover from and that $150 million would be paid down would I consider it? yes
  20. Hugh2
    I'm not denying SF is not as friendly for hitters. But since Devers was trade to the Giants in both 2025 and 2026 he has hit better at home than he has on the road. In 2025 he has WRC+ of 138 and an OPS of .843 at Oracle park while he was 118/.786 on the road. This year the road/home splits are almost identical. He's just not hitting as well as he historically has everywhere right now. I think there's more to it, as you pointed out his exit velocity and hard hit rates are down. Some guys just start their decline earlier than others and a lot of ball players start to go downhill around 30. Maybe we really did dodge a bullet trading Devers when we did...
  21. Hugh2
    EDIT: Wilson Contreras is not on an expiring deal, he does have one more year left. I'd still keep him on that list. Someone would pay handsomely for him the way he's swinging the bat.
  22. Hugh2
    The must sells Wilson Contreras, Sonny Gray, Aroldis Chapman, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. There are other names we can talk about. But all these players are on expiring deals (assuming Mutual options are not exercised which is almost certainly the case). In the absence of any shot of making and competiting in the playoffs you just have to sell high on those guys.
  23. Hugh2
    Because he'll be 33?
  24. Hugh2
    I wonder, does anyone believe the Sox should be buyers?
  25. Hugh2
    Here's how I'd improve the team. I'd work out trades with the Brewers for multiple players. I'd then not make those trades. I'd then go to other teams and find out which of our prospects they want that the Brewers didn't want and trade those guys to make the team better.
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