Hugh2
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Everything posted by Hugh2
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Because Abreu, Rafaela, Yorke, Valdez, Bello, Casas, Duran, Fitts + are all in Worcester or above.
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I think there's a difference between being the back up and then being the emergency (said position). I don't see a problem with a guy like Casas being the emergency 3B, but honestly he shouldn't getting more than 9 innings in that role a year. Ideally you have someone coming off the bench who can also play multiple positions doing that. You got 4 guys on the bench, right now that projects as McGuire/Reyes/Dalbec/Refsnyder. Thats' fine, but a guy like Cooper to replace Dalbec makes sense, and he's your back up first baseman. Reyes is your back up 3B. I have crazy speculations about a guy like Grissom possibly playing some 3B, maybe not in 2024 but if a guy like Yorke pans out or Mayer is up soon and Story is good/healthy you can get creative on getting guys at bats. Or not.
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I do see it as a contradiction.
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I don't think that's crazy at all.
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That's not exactly saying there's a budget though. There's a difference between we can't spend, and then we won't spend. If the Sox set their budget at 215 million and are sitting at 200, does that mean they have to go out and spend that 215 just because that's their budget? I think it's perfectly reasonable to assume their self imposed budgetary constraints could lay higher than what they actually spend. For example, they might be perfectly willing to sign Jordan Montgomery to a 4/90 dollar deal, but that's not going to happen so they "probably" won't be spending that extra 22.5 million. It's sort of a different way of being cheap.
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It's a tough climb to the top, did we really think there was an offseason to be had that would take us from a 78 win team to a 98 win team?
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Did the Sox front office ever actually say that though? It was reported after the Sox shed some payroll in the Sale trade, and after it was reported they were trying to move other players. But as far as I can recollect that never came from the FO. It feels like pure conjecture, conjecture that could be absolutely true by the way. It's hard to argue with this offseasons results so far.
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You know things are bad when you start convincing yourself that Garrett cooper would actually be a decent pick up. But.......he may actually be a decent pick up. He had a .904 OPS against LHP last year. If the Sox use him to spell Casas at 1B vs tough lefties, and play some outfield when they need another righty in the lineup he could make for a valuable bench piece. Sox now have their back up 1b. As far as I can gather.....he can not pitch.
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zips and steamer projections are more for O'Neill than they are Verdugo, because if healthy "the juicer" actually would be an upgrade not a downgrade there. If O'Neill goes down then I presume Abreu/Rafaella come up each of whom may add equal or greater value...or not. I expect the same production in LF/CF with the slight chance of improvement out there. Story will upgrade SS, Grissom will upgrade 2nd. Honestly, this feels like an 82 win team. That could break one way or the other depending on how much goes right/wrong. A major pitching upgrade would have many feeling much better about the team, that's for certain.
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Tuesday morning rumor is that Justin Turner has signed with the Toronto Blue Jays. Jays fans on Twitter are pissed about the move.
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I think the position side looks pretty darn good, it's the other side of the ball I find concerning.
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For the rotation to look good, you're going to need two out of the Wikelman/Perales/Fitts group to pretty much hit their ceiling. I'd be happy with one, and this is assuming Bello/Crawford can be a 2/4 type each. Next years free agent pitching class looks good, and fairly deep, but with a lot of teams seemingly sitting out on the Snell/Montgomery sweepstakes I feel there will be a lot more top dogs bidding on pitching next winter. I think the FO should still strongly consider these two this offseason if the price is reasonable.
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After this season the Astros will lose Jose Altuve Alex Bregman Justin Verlander Ryan Pressly Two big bats up an ace and their closer. They also have zero top 100 prospects. I'd much certainly rather be any one of the Dodgers or the Braves right now than the Astros. Even the Orioles, if they ever decide to spend....look out.
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They sign extensions early, buying out more team-controlled years. You take a big paycut but you take guaranteed millions with a chance of still hitting free agency around 30. A lot can happen in 5-6 years so that has appeal to a lot of players. There's risk there for the team too.
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Exactly, this is why I think this year is going to be different. Erod got 80/4, how much better is Montgomery really than EROD? He's worth more than that but not much more, maybe a hair more AAV and another year. Snell is harder to predict, because he could be the best pitcher in the game, or not there but he's still probably going to get around $150. I think if another team throws out the contract he rejected from the Yankees he might bite, unless there really is some mystery bidding going on behind the scenese. I don't think that's happening this year. For all the talk of Boras knowing what he's doing, people also forget about the years he misreads the market for his clients and they have to go play overseas for a year. I'm sure if Michael Conforto could turn back the hands of time he'd have accepted the METS QO in 2021. He would have gone into free agency the same exact year and be $19 million richer.
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That's just the thing I'm wonder, yes everyone needs pitching, but I'm not really sure who out there is going to go desperate for Snell or Montgomery. They both projected to receive 200/150 respectively. I think they end up seeing about 75% of that. Bold prediction here that Boras hold outs will end up with a rare depreciation in value by holding out.
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Next years pitching class has some interesting names in it as well. Brandon Woodruff Max Scherzer Justin Verlander Shane Bieber Zack Wheeler Max Fried Walker Buehler
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I don't think Montgomery is going to get the $150 million MLBTRADERUMORS, and certainly not the $172 million he is looking for in free agency. If he can be had in the $90-$130 range (depending on years) Sox should bite
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If the kids play like Casas did we would be in the playoff picture. I don’t think we will be sellers.
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Nate was pretty good in 21 as well, he had that one bad apparence out of the pen in game 4 of the ALCS, but besides that he was good.
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I think this is actually a much under appreciated way to get wins during the regular season, with the right guys as you say. I wouldn't hate it.....but I still think you need a top of the rotation starter to go deep in October.
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Breslow is going to look like a genius when he waits out the market and signs Jordan for $125
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Some might say we need to move money to be able to sign a pitcher. I'm not sure who you would need to make room for other than Snell/Montgomery, and I don't think anyones one year contract is preventing that. Ownership is just disinterested in moving in signing big money contract to pitchers. I'd trade Jansen in the right deal, heck I'd throw in money if we got back legit prospects. But I do that if we were signing a Montgomery type and pushing someone like Houck to the pen. I have no problem waiting until the deadline. Good bullpen help never hurts a team and certainly commands a fair payout at the deadline.
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I'm actually rather optimistic on the defense improving in 2024, I just won't be completely surprised if it's over subpar again. They should certainly have more depth options with guys like Rafaela being more ready and able to fill in at CF/SS
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I've put my personal opinions aside on the issue and don't want Bauer here. Right or wrong, it doesn't matter, the reality is he's a PR nightmare.