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Hugh2

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Everything posted by Hugh2

  1. Hugh2
    Moon....how can you possibly look at what's going on in the market and still undersell the cost of pitching? Put yourself in a teams position holding onto an ACE with two years of control. I would demand a teams top prospect, or one of their top prospects for them. And if we don't pay it someone else will. We keep losing these free agents because there's always ONE team willing to spend more. The trade market works the same way. If the front office has that mentality they will get beat out for trades as well. And we will be sitting here twiddling our thumbs come March talking about how this is the year Nick Pivetta becomes and ACE.
  2. Hugh2
    So you'd trade 6 years of a guy who might be the best player on your team for the next 6 years for 2 years of a pitcher with injury concerns? So what do you do in 2027? now you're down a pitcher again, and you have an additional hole to fill because you've traded away Campbell+ and it will be plus, a bird in hand is worth two in the bush. I don't care what BTV says but Campbell gets you 1/2 way there. This team sucks because they don't want to spend money, not spending money creates holes, trading everyone away plugs those holes up for a year or two, but developing them can at least buy you a 6 year window at some point. I would be upset if they don't spend money this year, but I'd consider it a much bigger insult and slap in the face to Sox fans to trade away their future that they've endured 4 years of suck for for a guy that will be on this team for 2-3 years. I'm sorry, If I'm trading for a guy I'm extending him. If you're not extending a guy it's not worth trading for him. That's my argument, any no man made outa straw in that.
  3. Hugh2
    Surgery is still surgery and even though there's a high success rate a decent amount of players never return to peak performance. And if he does, his price tag goes through the roof, If Alcantara comes back and looks like he did in 2022 he'd be looking at $300 million plus in free agency, actually if the inflation rate for top of the market doesn't slow down in the next two years you can make an argument for contract pushing over $360 million for Alcantara If you're trading for two years of a guy you're just going to have to pay anyways, why not just pay a guy now and save the prospects? If the Sox aren't willing to pay the price now, when will they be? If they have no desire to pay top dollar, their best bet is keeping and developing young talent and trying to lock up their own. Count me out.
  4. Hugh2
    I remember suggesting the Corbin Burnes might approach 280-300 million during the season and was crucified, so badly I convinced myself it was dumb. But I'm reminding of what I tell myself time after time, Always take the over in the market for pitching. The cost has gone up, is going up, and will only continue to go up. Back of the rotation starters like Pivetta are going to be getting $20 million per year or close to it. While I don't think Burnes eclipses $300 million he's probably getting around $250 if not more. If you trade for Crochet, you're not extending him if he's not getting around $30 million per year, even buying out those 3 years. Otherwise, why wouldn't he just bet on himself when he sees what these guys get? It would look really bad, if you traded away guys like Mayer/Abreu/Crawford to trade for Crochet, and in a year or two he goes down. I'd rather of just signed Burnes or Fried, at that point at the very least you've just burnt money, and not money and the players. Ownership obviously thinks very different than I do.
  5. Hugh2
    I agree that I think it's generally assumed that no one is untouchable for the right price. I say Roman Anthony is 100% untradeable and I wouldn't even think about it. But if the Tigers came calling and said "hey we really like Roman we will give you Skubal for him" then obviously you do a 180. I like to think of untouchable in terms of FIT. You can pay for guys like Devers making $30 million a year by having guys on team control play next to them. If Prime Jason Varitek was your catcher under team control, someone like Teel becomes more tradeable, now I consider Mayer a better prospect but from that perspective in terms of needs he's more movable than Teel (although up the middle is still a big need) The thing is, I can see a spot for all of these guys to slide into. Mayer > Short stop, Campbell > 2nd base Anthony > RF/CF and Teel > catcher.
  6. Hugh2
    Go back to the original plan. Pitching pitching and more pitching. I have faith in the young kids locking down the position side of things. But I have zero faith in the pitching being much better without outside help.
  7. Hugh2
    For reasons I've already stated, the Betts deal is in a sense comparable to Sotos deal. If you pay him for 3 more years accounting for age and add in the inflation rate the past 5 years you get over 700 million. Here's the reality. If Soto is still playing like an MVP 5 years from now no one is going to be calling this a bad contract. I suspect in my lifetime I'm going to see all stars regularly being paid $100 million dollars a year.
  8. Hugh2
    Interesting point, I also wonder how that inflation rate holds going back further? I'd suspect the rate of inlfation comes down but is still much higher than the national average. Shane Victorino would probably get $150 million 5 years in this market. Bregman is probably going to get more than that, probably closer to Adames money. Not comparing any of those players.
  9. Hugh2
    You said the contract was a done deal, only the team option years were being worked out. What happened to that 384 dollar contract? I thought those were the facts......and not up for dispute?
  10. Hugh2
    I was convinced to want Soto, 6 weeks ago I had sole interest in adding to the pitching staff. It's an emotional blow to not land Soto, but a perfectly viable offseason is there for the taking.
  11. Hugh2
    Makes you wonder what someone like Mookie would get today if he reached free agency at the age of 26. Probably over 750 million. As disappointed as I am, and I am, it's easy to see that money and say oh well I don't want to pay that. But that's where the market is going. Baseball player inflation is high, about 11% the past decade. That and paying for youth adds a premium as well. Lets take Mookie as an example. 1.11^5=1.68 That's the inflation adjustment from 2025 to 2020. Take Mookies 365*1.68 and you get $613 million dollars. But that was for 12 not 15 years. Mookies contract today, adjusting for inflation and years would be $766 million dollars. I'm not saying we made the wrong decision not outbidding the Mets, but MY MAIN POINT here is this is where the cost for premium players as gone. I get betting on the wrong guy can burn a hole in your roster, but at some point if you're a billionaire owner you have to place your bets somewhere. John Henry is like....playing the table minimum at the high roller table.
  12. Hugh2
    At this point Soto is either signing here or not, I don’t care what we or anyone else throws in. I firmly believe above the $700 million mark any team is just bidding against themselves. He’s going where he wants to play. I will be dissatisfied, but I also recognize the emotions attached to this. I want call it a failed offseason or rage against ownership until spring training has come around and they’ve failed to add pitching. They really still need two elite arms.
  13. Hugh2
    In 15 years from now the CBT will be well above 400 million and elite players will be pushing $100 million a year. He’s probably opting out after a year anyways so who cares. 2025: $65 2026: $65 2027: $60 2028: $60 opts out 2029-2039 $47.5/year i think it’s finally getting leaked today. Boras wants Soto signed so the winter meetings can be about all his other clients
  14. Hugh2
    I don’t think it matters anymore, at this threshold Soto is going to go to the team he likes best. I won’t be surprised if he ends up taking a lesser offer this point (from the 700+ ones) any more money is probably just us bidding against ourselves. The Ball is in Sotos court at this point. Let the cards fall where they may
  15. Hugh2
    I’m generally with you, but he’s also years younger than those free agents. Sox have been saying for years their preference to handing out bigger contracts to younger guys. And literally said such when they extended Devers
  16. Hugh2
    I just don't know why Boras would have such a meeting, or at the very least without having one with another team as well and telling them to match. Perhaps, if the price is right would him and Soto be willing to sign something then and there? if so will Henry hand out that kind of money.
  17. Hugh2
    Teoscar is rumored to be resigning with LA
  18. Hugh2
    I thought that would get people going, but it has to make you think. How things could of been different if things turned out differently. At the very least, you can see the logic in the return, Sox saw a hole that needed to be filled with up the middle in coming years (even if you kept Bogaerts 2nd base has been a hole as well). You don't have to love the trade to see the forest for the trees here. I can't help but look at hypotheticals....like what if, what if Martin Perez had his 2022 in 2021? and/or they picked up one more bullpen piece? Maybe we have a 2021 world series too. People forget we were just 2 games away from an appearance 3 years ago and they don't wanna believe John Henry is about to go BALLS again despite his constant history of spend/constraint/spend/constraint/spend/constraint. Yes, I share your disdain for his in ability to break that cycle and retain a fan favorite (Mookie Betts)
  19. Hugh2
    And I wanted Dansby Swanson. Both would of helped this team the last few years. So would Jeter Downs if he wasn't a bust.
  20. Hugh2
    They've certainly made their share of bad free agent signings over the last several years. Here's what I think NEVER happened. Scout "sir we've done extensive analysis of this guy called Trevor Story, on paper he's just as good maybe even better than Xander Bogaerts, but we believe his arm is about to blow up and he's going to provide almost no value going forward" Bloom " shiiiiiiiiiiit give that guy a fat check, we need him on our roster" Conversations that never happened. Point is, the guys at the top pulling all the strings are only as good as the information they're being fed. Sox have allegedly made massive changes in their structure and a ton of investment into their scouting and development departments the last few years. They obviously have seen the problem and are trying to fix it. Hopefully they're putting that to the text this offseason.
  21. Hugh2
    Not if they're going over, it's just peanuts at that point. Sox are way under and would be first time offenders. Like MVP just said its the non tax penalties that are the harshest. The Sox could spend $92 million dollars more before they'd have to lose draft position. If the Sox spent all the way up to $280 million (and I'm not saying they are) it would cost them a little over $10 million. They have said repeatedly over the years they will spend when they have a team worth building around. This is John Henry's MO, he's done it here, he's done it in Florida over and over again, and they're literally telling us they're doing it this year. I predicted it earlier and I'm going to say it again. The Sox are going over the CBT this year.
  22. Hugh2
    Look, if we are going to blast the Red Sox for not extending guys they should have.....shouldn't they get credit for refusing to pay top dollar for a guy who has shown to NOT be worth it in his later years? I feel like we can't play both sides of that. Gotta pick one.
  23. Hugh2
    Let me reiterate, I don't believe that number was reasonable. That's why the Sox let him walk, and I think they legit would have matched but they didn't see anyone out there offering close to $300 million. Sox were wrong, they miscalculated and it ended massively working out in their favor.
  24. Hugh2
    I vehemently disagree with that. Bogaerts ALREADY signed an extension, he could of honored it to the end and made money. His decision to opt out was all about maximizing his market. When guys do that, they don't sign extensions unless they're getting what they think they will get in the market. What do you think Scott Boras thought Bogaerts was going to get?
  25. Hugh2
    I mean, it's $10 million 1 year. That's pretty much what a good bench bat makes nowadays. If that's all they do for the pitching I'll be pissed too. I think they get another reliever and an elite starter. Also Chapman has a reputation of being very good with younger Latino players and that might be a very positive thing with guys like Bello/Rafaela/Abreu and even Devers around.
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