Nick

I've always thought that we should bring up promising rookies in late April to give us an 'extra' year of team control, a la 4 arbitration years plus 3 years at minimum. I had forgotten that Rookie of the Year now brings in an extra draft pick. I'm hoping Campbell has an outstanding Spring and comes up North with the varsity team. His ceiling seems much higher than that of what's his face from Atlanta.

thx

A way too early look at Red Sox ZiPS Projections

Quick question. Suppose the Sox come to quick 1 year deals with its arbitration eligible players. Can the extension signed AFTER March 2025 be effective for 2026 and beyond for the luxury tax purpose payroll calculation or does the 1 year deal for 2025 be combined with the extended amount to come up with a 'new' luxury tax payroll for 2025 season?

Exactly......there are consequences to being viewed as 'cheap'.

I like the idea of Campbell/Mayer combination. Hell if we have enough outfielders, we can bring back Rafaela to short when Story's contract expires. All I'm saying is no one should be non tradeable if it makes the team better. "Better Defense" keeps bouncing in my head and Devers pop up.

I think Vladimir's bat will play in Fenway better than Devers'. We were willing to fork out $700M for Soto. What's $450M for Vladimir? Don't you root for a team that simply wants to make the playoffs? Hold on to everyone tight as though they've already won the world series? I'm at an age I only care for winning the World Series. Everything else is 2nd place.

I didn't do a deep dive other than thinking we'd have to move Devers to 1B and then as a DH at some point. If we can afford it, I'd love to keep them both. Rotate Devers at 3B/DH and do the same for Vladimir at 1B/DH. That would require getting rid of Yoshida at some point. I just think Vladimir is better than Devers and much of that goes to a power righty hitting in Fenway.

Devers has 9 years remaining in his 10 year deal, $313.5M. The beauty of his contract is that he has NO, no trade clause. Also looking back from 9 years from now, I believe his production will stay pace with the market value. (I'm saying $30M in 5-9 years from now may become equivalence of paying guys $20M in today's market). One thought is going hard after Vladimir in free agency. He's little bit younger than Devers. But one advantage he has is that he already knows how to play 1B. Sure at some point he maybe a DH candidate. Similar situation as Devers but much later. I'd like to see him hit 81 games in Fenway. I don't see having to 'pay' the trading partner any money for Devers. We may or should get something reasonable in return. You make a trade at the deadline. Financially it won't cost us more than $15M. Deal Casas, Abreu or any combination. It would have to be a trade/sign deal. If we are in contention at the All Star break, this is how you go for IT. What are the negatives?

I am astonished that semi-proclamation of going all-in or at least more so than the previous winter turned out to be THIS. Maybe Bres has put a price tag of "$40M spend" on the acquisition of Croshet.

Moon, I am okay with us signing Bregman. I just wished we'd pick a player and see through the signing. I just don't think we'll do it. It appears our MO is to haggle over the last $3/$4M and lose out. You HAVE said the MOST IMPORTANT THING RECENTLY. That we are wasting one year of two year control of elite pitcher Crochet that we acquired by giving up pretty good prospects. Let that sink in for everyone here. Anyone that works for the Sox on this board, you are f***ing idiots.

Despite being $31M under the cap, I believe you won't see another big ticket signing this winter. Perhaps we'll add another bullpen arm on the cheap but our pitching staff is set. It's better than the one we had last year. Let's evaluate FA Bregman signing. Bres appears to be in no rush to move Devers off 3B. This almost is a duplicate of pussyfooting around NOT asking Xander to get his ass off ss for the good of the team. We want better defense but we seem to be very weak on the corners. It would be asinine to sign a player on the decline (Bregman) and ask him to play a position he's never played before. Just keep in mind that year ago Bres thought so highly of Atlanta's Vaughn Grissom that we PAID the Braves to take Sale off of our hands in exchange for Vaughn. Please let that sink in. I still believe Bres has not totally given up on Grissom, chalking up last year to injuries. The bigger issue is we may have someone that can fill 2B better than anyone on our 40 man roster, Kristian Campbell. Hell, he's already better than Bregman. Surely plays better defense. I doubt that we'll trade Casas when his value is at lowest. But he's still under team control for 4 more years. Let him play out this year and increase his trade value. Ultimately he probably has to go because of Devers. I doubt we pay Devers $30M just to DH. Unless of course we decided to roll the dice in 2025 and we trade for Vladimir (who is in his last year before free agency) for Casas, Abreu and handful of prospects. Adding Vladimir would be a calculated risk maybe worth taking if we're going for it. As of today, that maybe the only ONE move we can make to get us to the World Series. Solid starting pitching to go with a formidable offense with Vladimir, Devers, Duran, Story, Yoshida along with Anthony and Campbell. Quit nickel and diming us John. Do you ever dream big anymore? Or do you want your legacy, and this will be your only legacy, to be the cheap ass that owned the Red Sox?

I think you and I are in same place looking down from 30,000'. Let's look at our off season little differently thus far. We lost Pivetta, Jansen, Martin and O'neill at total cost of $37M. We've added Chapman, Walker and Crochet for $34M. We've replaced 1 starter with 2, not counting Giolito who will come back from IL. We haven't replaced our right handed bat and our bullpen payroll has been reduced, adding marginal relievers to replace Martin. Our luxury tax payroll has gone from $208.5M up to $210M. On surface, it sure doesn't look like we've opened up our checkbook. WE BOUGHT A STARTER WITH 4 FUTURE PROSPECTS. THAT'S PRETTY MUCH BEEN IT. WALKER BUEHLER BASICALLY GOT PIVETTA'S QUALIFYING OFFER. UGH, UGH, UGH.

"When the vaunted rotation of Sale, Price, Nate, ERod and Porcello imploded, it was not a pretty sight to see." You actually said this right after complaining about NOT bringing back Pomeranz? There was NOTHING wrong with the starting rotation on paper as of 3/31/2019. I doubt you had any concerns at the time that Pomeranz was no longer with the team. I thought his acquisition was a stretch at the time of the trade.

I am coming around to our latest addition. One year deal. Our rotation, at least on paper, looks solid. For me the best thing was not giving up Casas with 4 years of team control for a pitcher that we had to pay $70M over 3 years. That to me seemed asinine. I'd much roll the dice and have him come back with good year, then do the Tamp Bay thing and trade him. Just not sure if we can keep both Devers and Casas if we want to improve our defense. We possibly gave up much talent but Crochet costs us $3M this year. My hope is we extend him and buy out 2-4 years of free agency. We can sign Bregman and still stay under the cap. Just get it done.

I am willing to give a pass on Soto situation. Mets were going to add few millions to whatever the highest bid was. It seemed very personal between the Mets and the Yankees. My only hope was Soto looked at us kindly. When I heard no Yankee contacted Soto after the season put a thought on my head that Soto was going to the biggest contract offer, and that was always going to be the Mets.

I believe Moon suggested we may want to trade Crawford. The upside may be great for this newly formed rotation but I would caution against trading anyone at this point. No one has confirmed that Giolito will be ready to go on day 1. Too many fragile arms to worry about thinning out the ranks. Based on innings pitched history along with lengthy injury report on this group, it would seem we should consider a six man rotation. That maybe what's coming down the load.

Cot's now has the Sox $36M below the luxury tax payroll limit. Sign a big right handed bat and then move on? We'll have $51M coming off the books after 2025 so we can continue to add one year 'rehab' contracts while we look for another diamond in the rough starting pitcher off of our minor league teams.

I can't tell you how disgusted I am with this. What's the upside for paying almost $20M for this guy? You mean to tell me we couldn't have added another high level bullpen guy for 2 years at $20M? Bres can go to hell.

Yankees at $260M and still looking to add. Sox are at $176M, trying to eek out $3M-$5M wins on 6 figure contracts for FA.

I thought the goal was to win the Division. Signing Bregman and Burnes would go long ways in making the Sox faithful back in the fold. Do it John. We'll be right at they cusp of the luxury tax payroll with these two signings. Just week ago JH was going to throw $700M at Soto. All of the sudden, we're done after dishing out $10M to Chapman? Unfreaking real.

Let's hope Sox don't stop playing ball this winter. Crochet is a start. We need to see a right handed bat, a reliever and maybe another starter.

Only thing I can figure out about the Orioles is that they will have 16 arbitration eligible players at the end of 2025. They have about 10 this year. Are they afraid that payroll is going to get hit with higher arb numbers in two years?

I like to see us go ahead and sign Bregman. Then wait out the Mariners and get one of their young pitchers. It may take Casas plus Abreu. It just brings clarity into our future. Want to improve defense? Move Devers to 1B or to DH. That opens up spot in the OF for Anthony. Keep good defensive centerfielder in Rafaela. Campbell should be our future 2B. I'd even think about adding another right handed bat with some power. We'd still have Mayer as a backup at short for our injury prone Story. Add another bullpen help. Wong, Campbell, Hamilton, Mayer, Devers, Rafaela, Anthony and Duran all with at least 4 years of team control. We're still $65M under the cap.

Does that mean we get Bregman? Looks like Houston received a 3B in exchange.