harmony

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/regression/ Toward the mean of all players.

The projections almost always regress toward the mean ... in both directions.

We all hope Andrew Benintendi remains healthy but a wide variety of outcomes are possible. On what do you base your stated projections?

Andrew Benintendi was the 2016 version of Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber the previous season because each made his MLB debut roughly a year after being a Top 10 draft pick out of college. Here are their MLB slash lines from their debut years: AB DOB 7-6-94 2016 118 PA, .295/.359/.476/.835. OPS+ 117, 0.6 fWAR MC DOB 3-1-93 2015 194 PA, .270/.335/.506/.841, OPS+ 126, 2.1 fWAR KS DOB 3-5-93 2015 283 PA, .246/.355/.487/.842, OPS+ 130, 1.9 fWAR Here are the second-year slash lines for Conforto and Schwarber: MC 2016 348 PA, .220/.310/.414/.725, OPS+ 92, 1.3 fWAR KS 2016 5 PA, .000/.200/.000/.200, OPS+ -39, -0.1 fWAR

FanGraphs Depth Charts projects Andrew Benintendi with a 2017 WAR of 1.6. in 560 plate appearances covering 133 games: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17901&position=OF ... with the Steamer projection coming in slightly lower.

From Monday evening's FanGraphs chat: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-after-dark-chat-112916/ Also:

New England's largest newspaper did not let up after Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez departed: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/02/16/carl-crawford-adrian-gonzalez-still-complaining-about-boston/xFuFQGrlGdHLEXynRMRk7K/story.html Again, legitimate issues need to be addressed but how the issues are addressed makes a difference. The Red Sox indeed attract top free agents, some overpaid and probably fewer underpaid. Money speaks.

To varying degrees, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Adrian Gonzalez were vilified by a wide swath of Boston fans and media. Two of the three generally disappointed after their trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers. No doubt some Dodger fans expressed their disappointment but the typical displeasure was not as vile as that generated in Boston. Again, a generalization. It comes down to how we hold people accountable. Perhaps we can draw an analogy to an abusive relationship. For example, a woman can be subjected to her husband's physical and emotional abuse, which is not limited to calling her a "fat slob" in public. The wife may have genuine shortcomings but the husband's response is abusive. The woman divorces the abusive husband and ultimately marries a man who recognizes her same shortcomings but responds by either helping her address the shortcomings, tolerating the shortcomings or a combination of both. Should the woman be blamed for her inability to cope with the intensity of the first marriage? The bottom line is how we treat our fellow human beings. I give the MLB player the same respect I give the 6-year-old T-baller. An MLB player does not lose respect because he earns $10 million a year. I can be disappointed with the performance of the MLB player or the T-baller but that does not give me the right to belittle either. I should probably remain silent unless I can offer ways to improve the situation. On the other hand, an MLB player or T-baller who spits on an umpire will lose some respect. Work environments vary employer to employer. The work environment for a professional athlete in New England might be different from the work environment for a professional athlete elsewhere. The rare MLB player with a choice of employers could take that into consideration.

And the same could be written of Eduardo Rodriguez ... or Rick Porcello, David Price, Drew Pomeranz and Steven Wright. Let's hope they're all healthy.

Steamer projects Eduardo Rodriguez with a 2017 WAR of 1.7 and an ERA of 4.31 in 24 starts: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13164&position=P Rodriguez could be Chris Sale or Felix Doubront.

Try this source: http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2003/08/30/pedro_runs_afoul_of_puritan_sox_fans/

I welcome the discussion and hope no one (especially you) feels compelled to retreat to a safe space.

Most everyone can agree that a player should be held accountable. The issue is how a player should be held accountable. In terms of player accountability, a person with a character flaw is one who is unable to distinguish between calling a player a "fat slob" and mindfully addressing the player's shortcomings. The "fat slob" designation is an attack on character. What does that designation achieve? Alternative measures can result in accountability.

Character flaw noted.

From Monday's FanGraphs chat with Dan Szymborski: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-112816/

It's an overgeneralization, but ... The typical New England fan is quick to attribute a lack of performance to a character flaw. A typical fan elsewhere might be more likely to mindfully seek solutions to the performance problem. The typical MLB player does not expect the fans and media to ignore a lack of performance, but the player probably welcomes solutions over character assassination. Perhaps the character flaw lies with the typical New England fan. It's an overgeneralization, but ...

This offseason a San Diego Union-Tribune writer has critiqued the Craig Kimbrel and Drew Pomeranz trades: http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-padres-kimbrel-trade-review-20161017-story.html http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-padres-trade-review-drew-pomeranz-20161124-story.html

The San Francisco front office denies discussing Pablo Sandoval: http://m.giants.mlb.com/news/article/209693506/giants-deny-talks-to-bring-back-pablo-sandoval/

Only in hindsight.😊

I hope you're right but there are no sure-things.

I have not seen Andrew Benintendi play in person but I witnessed the pure left-handed swing of Dustin Ackley coming up.

I question San Francisco's need for third baseman with baseball's worst WAR over the past two seasons. This year the Giants finished in the middle of the pack in third-base WAR despite only two months of returning third baseman Eduardo Nunez, who posted a 2016 fWAR of 2.7.

Andrew Benintendi is a great prospect but he is not a sure-thing. That $56 million investment would carry risks. We need to separate the questions of what the Giants would need and what the Red Sox would be willing to offer.

Most Pablo Sandoval trade rumors are laughable.