harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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I suspect the Red Sox have explored the trade market for Clay Buchholz. I wonder what they've found.
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Perhaps the Red Sox are waiting to shed payroll to stay under the luxury tax threshold before spending big on a free agent.
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I suspect the luxury tax threshold came into play for the Red Sox. I'm not surprised that Carlos Beltran signed only days after the Collective Bargaining Agreement was settled.
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2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
harmony replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Bullpen arms won't come cheap this offseason if the contracts for Brett Cecil and Marc Rzepczynski are any indication. -
2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
harmony replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The salaries of Allen Craig and Rusney Castillo do not count against the luxury tax because neither is on the Red Sox 40-man roster. The Red Sox would be fortunate to find a trade partner willing to pay $4 million of Pablo Sandoval's $19 million annual AAV salary. The savings for luxury tax purposes would be limited to the trade partner's contribution. -
Well, I raised this issue last month: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17583-Clay-Buchholz-Is-he-worth-the-2016-option?p=1038051#post1038051 And I guess I made a brief mention in this post about Rusney Castillo's contract: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17963-Looking-ahead-to-2017/page7 And I offered this response to one of your posts: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17549-A-Realistic-View-at-2016/page155
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I made a brief mention of Clay Buchholz in a largely unrelated post then responded to your inquiries: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/17862-Postseason-Happenings-2016?p=1040101#post1040101
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2016-2017 Offseason Trade Speculation Thread
harmony replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
That's where the luxury tax is likely to come into play. A team that is not bumping up on the threshold could outbid the Red Sox. Now that Tyson Ross is a free agent an acquiring club won't need to rely on the Padres for his medicals. -
Neither has great value.
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Fans want to buy into the hype of their favorite team's young players and I suspect Red Sox fans have not abandoned the early hype on Rubby de la Rosa: http://nesn.com/2013/02/pedro-martinez-thinks-rubby-de-la-rosa-could-become-one-of-baseballs-elite-players/ De la Rosa, who will be 28 years old on Opening Day 2017, has posted only 1.8 fWAR in four years of MLB service (and only 1.2 fWAR since his August 2012 trade to the Red Sox): http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3862&position=P De la Rosa apparently has concerning health issues: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17653903/rubby-de-la-rosa-arizona-diamondbacks-stem-cell-injection-injured-pitching-elbow
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Rubby de la Rosa will earn whatever the highest bidder will pay. De la Rosa was projected to earn $3 million in his second year of arbitration.
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The Diamondbacks have non-tendered Rubby de la Rosa: The non-tender of catcher Welington Castillo could impact the trade market for Boston's catchers.
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Clay Buchholz has been valued at 7.7 fWAR over the past four seasons, including 0.5 fWAR this year. Andrew Cashner, who is two years younger than Buchholz, has been valued at 8.1 fWAR over the past four seasons, including 0.4 fWAR this year. Cashner got a one-year, $10 million contract but did not cost the Texas Rangers a draft pick. Buchholz has one year and $13.5 million remaining on his contract. A Buchholz trade partner would need to send talent in return unless the Red Sox give him away. Cashner and Buchholz provide an interesting comp.
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Seattle could offer D.J. Peterson, who was drafted as a third baseman with No. 12 pick in the 2013 draft. Peterson's stock has dropped precipitously since twice being ranked among the Top 100 prospects.😜
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With a projected 2017 WAR of 1.7 and a 2017 salary of $13.5 million, Clay Buchholz has limited surplus value. The return in a trade might reflect a correspondingly limited surplus value.
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An SB Nation blogger on the Red Sox and third base: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/1/13775444/pablo-sandoval-travis-shaw-yoan-moncada-boston-red-sox-third-base
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I suspect the Red Sox will keep Clay Buchholz and hope his "ace stuff" surfaces for a chunk of the 2017 season. I'm still curious what the Sox would receive in an offseason trade of the righthander.
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I suspect Seattle would prefer a hitter who posted a positive WAR in one of the last two years. Pablo Sandoval is a pariah whose now lefthanded bat would not play on a lefty-heavy Mariner club that traded for the righthanded bat of Danny Valencia. I question whether Clay Buchholz would get three guaranteed years heading into his age 33 season coming off this year's disappointment.
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Adding a net $14+ million in annual salary for that return might cause a revolt in the Pacific Northwest. Clay Buchholz would not compensate for three years of Pablo Sandoval at $18 million over one year of Danny Valencia at a projected $5.3 million.
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Dipoto hopes Mitch Haniger, Dan Vogelbach and/or International League MVP Ben Gamel -- who all absolutely tore up Triple A pitching this year -- will break out in 2017. http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=hanige001mit http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=vogelb000dan http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=gamel-001ben Jean Segura is likely to regress but the Mariners go into the 2017 season with a 27-year-old shortstop who posted a higher 2016 fWAR than Xander Bogaerts ... at a less premium position nonetheless. I hope Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte have successful careers, but I hope the same for Haniger and Segura.
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Yes and yes, although I am probably an optimist. The Mariners have added Jean Segura, Danny Valencia, Carlos Ruiz and Mitch Haniger to a potent offense that this year trailed only the Red Sox in wRC+ (the M's have subtracted Adam Lind, Nori Aoki, Dae-ho Lee and Ketel Marte). Pitching was the problem with this year's 86-win team and the team lacks rotation depth with the trade of Taijuan Walker. Should the Red Sox trim payroll with a trade of Clay Buchholz? At any rate, I expect the M's to be in the market for another starter or two to go with Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, Ariel Miranda and Nate Karns. Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto left the Angel farm system barren but many attribute the demise to Halo owner Arte Moreno. Dipoto inherited a weak Seattle farm system that has probably improved since Dipoto's arrival in September 2015. I'm bracing for regression from probably two of Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz, but I remain optimistic.
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On the other end of the spectrum, how many November moves are too many? Scroll down for a list of the Seattle Mariners' November moves, including five trades: http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article117483458.html The binge did not end with the month ... today's reports are that the Mariners will sign lefty reliever Marc Rzcepczynski: http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article118223958.html
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Allen Craig in March 2013 signed an extension with the St. Louis Cardinals, a franchise that was nowhere near the luxury tax limit. If Craig had remained with the St. Louis, the Cardinals could facilitate a trade by paying part of his salary without luxury tax implications. With the trade to Boston, and with his underperformance, Craig is pretty much precluded from plying his trade at the MLB level unless he forgoes his negotiated salary. I suspect agents may address the issue in future player contracts.
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Interesting solution. I suspect the players union would like to address that issue in the future as Rusney Castillo and Allen Craig find themselves in purgatory because no trade partner is likely to take on the full salary and any salary paid by the Red Sox in a trade would count against the luxury tax in the likely event either lands on a 40-man roster.
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Luxury tax threshold reportedly set at $195 million this year: