harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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I can't answer the question, but Wade Miley reportedly was the most-asked-for of the available Red Sox starters last offseason, according to Dave Dombrowski, as quoted by Boston Globe columnist Nick Cafardo in December: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/12/08/red-sox-traded-away-wrong-guy-wade-miley/F29p2YXUJ8G8Mx3ijW0v0N/story.html
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2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread
harmony replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I suspect Dave Cameron would welcome a casual fan to his FanGraphs chat today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-7616/ Every July in recent years FanGraphs has posted Cameron's widely cited annual trade value list. Here is last year's list: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-the-full-list/ -
2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread
harmony replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Serious baseball fans are familiar with Dave Cameron, managing editor of FanGraphs, which an analyst in the Washington Nationals' research and development department calls "the pinnacle of the online sabermetric community." Here is a link to a Washington Post article about FanGraphs: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2016/02/15/the-rise-of-fangraphs-stats-site-gives-fans-front-offices-view-to-baseballs-evolution/ -
Would anyone trade Clay Buchholz straight up for 38-year-old Seattle reliever Joaquin Benoit, who sports an ERA of 5.03 in 20 appearances this year in his final season before free agency? http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/benoijo01.shtml This season Benoit will be paid $7.5 million while Buchholz is paid $13 million (and a $500,000 buyout of his 2017 option). Benoit was stellar in 2010, his only season in the AL East. The Mariners have groomed 22-year-old phenom Edwin Diaz to take Benoit's set-up role.
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2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread
harmony replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron suggests that the Red Sox should trade for a hitter: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-red-sox-should-trade-for-another-hitter/ -
Two months of a 36-year-old lefthander with a 2.31 ERA in 12 MLB starts this year are worth far more than a 25-year-old lefthander who posted an ERA of 5.45 (with 6 walks per 9 innings) in seven Triple A starts before going on the inactive list with anxiety issues, and a 23-year-old lefty who is walking 6.3 per 9 innings in 14 Triple A starts. If Oakland places Rich Hill on the trade block, the Athletics will seek players with promise, not players who have lost their promise.
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Seattle is only one game back in the AL Wild Card race despite a starting rotation that has been decimated by injuries to Felix Hernandez, Wade Miley and Taijuan Walker (and the demotion of Nate Karns). Under those circumstances, I doubt the Mariners will trade righthander Hisashi Iwakuma. By the way, the Red Sox should thank the Mariners for sweeping a four-game series at home this weekend against the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles, who entered the series with a seven-game winning streak.
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That's asking for the pitching equivalent of Mookie Betts or Xander Bogaerts.
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2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread
harmony replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I too disfavor long-term contracts and agree that most don't produce value in the end. I was opposed to the Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz contracts at the time of each signing. With the exception of his injured-marred first half of the 2015 season, the Mariners have pretty much gotten what they wanted from Cano, who produced 5.2 fWAR in 2014 and who is on pace for 6.1 fWAR this year. The contract will look great if Cano ages like David Ortiz or Adrian Beltre but poor if Cano ages like Prince Fielder. In the free agent market, the bottom line is that mediocrity is costly and excellence is costlier. -
2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread
harmony replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Just as an aside, Robinson Cano has been valued at $80.9 million two-and-a-half years into his 10-year, $240 million contract despite an injury-marred first half of the 2015 season: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3269&position=2B#value Felix Hernandez has been valued at $115.4 million three-and-a-half years into his seven-year, $175 million extension (although the righthander has been on the disabled list for more than a month): http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4772&position=P#value Kyle Seager has been valued at $51.9 million a year and a half into his seven-year, $100 million extension: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9785&position=3B#value Nelson Cruz has been valued at $54 million a year and a half into his four-year, $58 million contract: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2434&position=OF#value The Seattle Mariners have baseball's longest postseason drought but contended in Cano's first season and are currently 1.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race. -
Joe Kelly has an ERA of 8.46 in six starts with the Red Sox this year, walking 7.7 per nine innings: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kellyjo05.shtml This year Kelly has an ERA of 2.37 in four starts at Triple A Pawtucket but has only a June 7 start since May 16: http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=523260#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2016/MINORS
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2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread
harmony replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
MLB Daily Dish columnist Chris Cotillo offers his Red Sox trade deadline preview: http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2016/7/1/12062670/boston-red-sox-trade-deadline-preview -
89-90 wins, AL East champs, lose in AL Divisional Series My prediction is not worth the cyberspace it's written on.
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In light of the near-perfect game today by Atlanta righthander Julio Teheran, I thought I would compare the relative merits of the 25-year-old starter and top Red Sox prospect Yoan Moncada. In 2012 Teheran was a Top 5 prospect when he was four months older than Moncada was this year when Moncada was a Top 5 to 7 prospect, according to rankings at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. Teheran made his MLB debut at age 20, 100 days, while Moncada at age 21, 23 days, has yet to play above the High A level. In February 2014 the Braves signed Teheran to a six-year, $32.4 million contract with a 2020 option for a seventh year at a net $11 million. In February 2015, the Red Sox signed Moncada to a $31.5 million bonus (and incurred a penalty of a similar amount). The Red Sox reportedly are paying out the bonus in three annual installments. Moncada would remain under team control through 2023 if the Sox call him up for good in midseason 2017. Barring Super Two status, Moncada would have three years at the league minimum and three arbitration seasons. Teheran is a somewhat established commodity while Moncada is the promising but unproven prospect that Teheran once was. I suspect the Atlanta Braves would not trade Teheran straight up for Moncada in a starting-pitcher market that may overheat if it has not already.
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I was listening to the Seattle radio broadcast on Saturday and the Mariner broadcasters were noting -- not complaining, but noting -- that the homeplate umpire called balls on two of Adrian Sampson's pitches in the middle of the strike zone. In the sixth inning today, the first two pitches to Jackie Bradley were strikes, according to MLB.com Gameday, but the umpire called each a ball. The calls did not lead to Red Sox runs. Today's umpires probably are no worse at calling balls and strikes than were their predecessors over the past century-plus, but modern technology gives fans more ammunition to complain.
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2016 Trade and Roster Move Speculation thread
harmony replied to Dojji's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Why would the Brewers take on $25 million more in obligations to trade a productive player for four disappointments? Under the fWAR conversion, Ryan Braun has been valued at $30.6 million since the start of the 2015 season. Over the same period, Pablo Sandoval has been valued at a negative $17.4 million, Rusney Castillo $4.9 million, Henry Owens $2.8 million and Brian Johnson $100,000. Braun barely earns more than Sandoval over the next three seasons. Milwaukee should not be a dumping ground. I assume you were joking. -
I can understand why a Red Sox fan would be pleased with the selection of Jason Groome but I questioned the suggestions that the lefthander would be in Boston "in 2-4 years." I humbly provided the MLB experience of all high school pitchers taken in the previous four MLB drafts. Groome faces long odds of pitching at the MLB level within four years. But again I understand why a Red Sox fan would be pleased with the Groome pick just as this Seattle fan is pleased with the Mariners' selection of college outfielder Kyle Lewis with the preceding pick at No. 11. As Groome dropped from No. 1 in the MLB.com draft projection to the No. 12 pick, Lewis dropped from No. 3 to the No. 11 pick: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=draft Whereas Groome dropped in part because of signability issues, Lewis apparently had no signability issues, inking at slot value and taking batting practice at Safeco Field before Saturday evening's game. Perhaps Lewis dropped because of talent issues, but Lewis, who succeeded Andrew Benintendi as Baseball America's College Player of the Year, still drew rave reviews on draft day. Prospect guru Jim Callis of MLB.com wrote: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/183086774/mlb-draft-pick-by-pick-selections-analysis The Red Sox face an interesting task of signing Groome, who significantly increased his leverage by committing to a junior college instead of to Vanderbilt. Groome will demand top dollar that will far exceed the slot amount at No. 12. If the Sox don't meet his demands Groome will play a year at the junior college and return to next year's draft. If the Red Sox meet his demands the Sox will need to reduce their offers to other draft picks or face substantial penalties. I don't doubt that teams with higher draft picks were scared off by Groome's anticipated demands and his option to re-enter next year's draft. I offer this not because I think Seattle drafted a better player than Boston did. I offer this because although I am pleased with the Mariners' pick I am not making any outlandish projections. Let's hope that someday Groome and Lewis are teammates on the American League All Star Team ... but that's a hope, not a projection.
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Fans naturally get excited about their team's draft picks and prospects but the statistics suggest that only a minority become productive MLB players. Four years from now we should judge the progression of Jason Groome (and the four high school pitchers taken ahead on the lefthander in this year's draft).
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http://highschoolsports.nj.com/news/article/7832549342102810772/has-jason-groome-fallen-out-of-the-top-5-picks-in-the-mlb-draft/
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None of the high school pitchers taken in the first rounds of the 2013, 2014 and 2015 drafts has made an MLB appearance to date. Jose Berrios and Lance McCullers are the only high school pitchers from the first round of the 2012 draft who have made MLB debuts. We should temper our expectations for Jason Groome, who was passed over by 11 clubs for a variety of reasons (some not talent-related).
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Late last month in Seattle, the Minnesota Twins swept the Mariners, who at 33-26 are currently only one game behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card standings (the Mariners also have been swept at home by the Angels and the Athletics, two more clubs with losing records). Baseball is a funny game. The Red Sox are better than the Twins yet I would be surprised if the Sox sweep ... but anything is possible.
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We don't know whether Henry Owens, Brian Johnson and/or Michael Kopech were in play in negotiations, if the Red Sox took part in negotiations at all. The body of stats might be comparable, but Owens. Johnson and Kopech each have recent concerns that Erik Johnson may lack. I suspect the Padres discussed a James Shields trade with many clubs and decided that the White Sox deal was the best ... and perhaps the Red Sox were neither interested in Shields nor willing to include Owens, Johnson or Kopech in a package. A Sox rotation of David Price, Rick Porcello, Steven Wright, Eduardo Rodriguez and Clay Buchholz/Joe Kelly might be enough despite the likely frustrations.
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6/5 vs Canadian birds with stupid names.
harmony replied to User Name's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
The Red Sox remain in good shape in their bid for a postseason berth: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx#ALE -
San Diego is not a dumping ground. With his negative 0.2 fWAR and negative 0.7 bWAR this year and about $1.8 million left on his 2016 salary, Joe Kelly comes with two and 2/3 years of team control. I suspect the Padres would rather take their chances with Erik Johnson and his five and 2/3 years of team control.
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Does Anyone Remember Their First Major League Game?
harmony replied to bosoxmal's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Red Sox right fielder Jose Tartabull started that game-ending double play: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHA/CHA196708271.shtml Scroll to the bottom. Carl Yastrzemski hit two homers en route to a share of the 1967 American League home run title with my childhood hero, Harmon Killianbrew. The Sox closed out the season with two wins over my Minnesota Twins to erase a one-game deficit and claim the AL crown.

