harmony

A tad off-topic, but former Red Sox reliever Brad Ziegler and the Miami Marlins have reportedly agreed to a two-year contract for $16 million plus incentives:

A signed free agent cannot be traded without his permission until mid-June of the next season.

To elaborate, the Red Sox may well be the current favorite to win the American League pennant next year: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3 [check out the right column] ... but it's crazy call the Red Sox the "prohibitive" favorites, as one columnist did: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/6/13856634/chris-sale-red-sox-american-league-favorites-rotation-lineup-moncada-kopech I'm not a betting person but I would easily take the field against Red Sox to win the AL title.

FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan was succinct in today's chat: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-121616/

As a side note of no relevance, lefthanders Drew Smyly and Drew Pomeranz faced each other in college: http://www.olemisssports.com/sports/m-basebl/recaps/050810aaa.html

It's probably safe to say most Red Sox fans did not think Drew Pomeranz was worth Anderson Espinoza at the time of the July 14 trade. If Pomeranz was not worth Baseball America's 15th-ranked midseason prospect, was the lefthander worth only Tyler O'Neill, whom BA ranked 45th at midseason? http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-100-prospects/#OdA0f2SxPS2v1vqS.97 And if Pomeranz's trade value has dropped since, might Tyler O'Neill perhaps be an overpay at this point? For what it's worth, MLB.com Prospect Watch now ranks Espinoza No. 13 and O'Neill No. 60 while John Sickels ranks Espinoza No. 30 and O'Neill No. 77: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016 http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/9/24/12932956/top-100-prospects-end-of-2016 This year O'Neill was the MVP of the Double A Southern League in his age 21 season while Espinoza had a rocky Single A year in his age 18 season: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/tyler-oneill-pulled-rare-feat-double/#Q0czcEhp6JGGGTSi.97 http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=espino005and I doubt the Red Sox will trade Pomeranz this offseason after swapping him for a highly touted prospect. At a Tampa Bay website several posters wrote that Tyler O'Neil would be a fair return for lefthander Drew Smyly, who like Drew Pomeranz comes with two years of team control. http://www.draysbay.com/2016/12/14/13959116/potential-jake-odorizzi-landing-spots Scroll toward bottom of comments. Of course, the Rays have a greater need for a righthand-hitting outfielder. FanGraphs Depth Charts project Smyly with a 2017 WAR of 2.5 and Pomeranz with a 2017 WAR of 2.3: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11760&position=P http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P I found that interesting because I suspect the Mariners would prefer Smyly to Pomeranz.

Does Drew Pomeranz have more or less trade value than he did when the lefthander was traded to the Red Sox two days after his appearance in the All Star Game? Keep in mind Pomeranz's exposed medicals, lackluster post-trade performance and diminished duration of team control. In the offseason prospective trade partners are not operating in a pennant race under the pressure of an approaching trade deadline.

Beyond the Box Score posted a positive take on the impact Chris Sale will have on the Red Sox rotation: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/15/13937042/boston-red-sox-chris-sale-rotation-preview

Working off Baseball America's midseason Top 100 list, if Drew Pomeranz last July was worth 15th-ranked prospect Anderson Espinoza, would the lefthander now be worth the 45th-ranked prospect, Seattle outfield prospect Tyler O'Neill, given Pomeranz's exposed medicals, lackluster post-trade performance and diminished duration of team control? The Mariners are in no position to weaken a rebuilding farm system, but I'm trying to get a handle on relative value. O'Neill might be a better fit for the less-contending Tampa Bay Rays, who could offer healthier lefthander Drew Smyly, who about matches Pomeranz in age, projected WAR and years of team control. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11760&position=P

Not likely, according to this information a Seattle blogger attributed to Mariner GM Jerry Dipoto from a conversation last week: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/12/10/13906272/dipotos-ll-christmas-gift

From today's chat with MLB Trade Rumors columnist Jeffrey Todd: https://www.jotcast.com/chat?id=1776 I hope the Mariners shoot higher than Clay Buchholz.

For what it's worth, MLB Prospect Watch ranks Rafael Devers and Jason Groome at No. 16 and No. 31 (with Andrew Benintendi at No. 5) while the White Sox* have Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito at No. 1 and No. 3, the Braves have Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies at No. 4 and No. 12, and the Pirates have Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows at No. 8 and No. 9. Even the Yankees have Clint Frazier at No. 15, Gleyber Torres at No. 17 and Jorge Mateo at No. 18: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=prospects * the White Sox also have Michael Kopech at No. 30, Reynaldo Lopez at No. 38, Carson Fulmer at No. 58 and Zack Collins at No. 80

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-luxury-tax-20161212-story.html

I suspect fWAR is not that simplistic. fWAR probably takes into account BABIP and HR/FB where in the first half last year David Price posted .321 and 15.2 while Steven Wright posted .271 and 6.5: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=30&season1=2016&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players= Somewhat unrelated, but here is an explanation of descriptive and predictive statistics: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-beginners-guide-to-understanding-descriptive-and-predictive-stats/#more-2807

That's a criticism of ERA and WHIP, not WAR, which is an accumulative statistic that rewards a pitcher for pitching more innings. WAR is not a be-all stat but it may be the best starting point in player valuation.

I posted the same comparisons to a Tampa Bay Ray website and got this response about the relative value of Clay Buchholz and Alex Cobb: http://www.draysbay.com/2016/12/12/13931508/mariners-show-interest-in-rays-starters

The worst car I ever owned was a 1983 Renault Alliance, which made Car & Driver magazine's Top 10 list that year: http://www.caranddriver.com/features/dishonorable-mention-the-10-most-embarrassing-award-winners-in-automotive-history That's saying a lot because I previously owned a Ford Pinto and a Chevy Chevette. I've done much better since.

After reading that Seattle is interested in Tampa Bay starters: ... I couldn't help drawing parallels between the potentially available pitchers for the Red Sox and the Rays. Clay Buchholz and Alex Cobb are inconsistent righthanders with only one year of team control. Steamer had projected 2017 WAR of 1.7* in 23 starts for Buchholz and 1.6 in 21 starts for Cobb but Buchholz is owed $13.5 million in 2017 while Cobb is projected to earn only $4 million. Drew Pomeranz and Drew Smyly are lefthanders with two years of team control. Steamer projects 2017 WAR of 2.3 in 147 innings over 34 appearances, including 24 starts, for Pomeranz and 2.5 in 164 innings over 28 starts for Smyly. Pomeranz is projected to earn $4.7 million and Smyly $6.9 million. It should be fascinating to see how the market shakes out. * Steamer revised the Buchholz projected WAR down to 0.5 in 37 innings following the Chris Sale trade but I use the original projected WAR of 1.7 for comparison purposes

It's sometimes difficult to distinguish between intentionally false news and mere negligently bad reporting. This piece includes the line: "Chris Buccholz also has a tem option for 2017." http://www.gamenguide.com/articles/88504/20161212/mlb-news-rumors-clay-buccholz-trading-block-teams-prefer-drew.htm The article also includes these quotes:

I generally admire the work of Over the Monster's Ben Buchanan but caution that this conclusion comes from a Red Sox-centric columnist. Buchanan's bias is neither better nor worse than the bias of the typical SB Nation columnist. Here is the account from Scott Gelman, an SB Nation columnist for the Miami Marlins: http://www.fishstripes.com/2016/12/12/13923278/marlins-discussed-clay-buchholz-trade-with-red-sox I have seen no report that the Marlins made an offer for Clay Buchholz. I have read one report that the Marlins declined a Red Sox offer of Clay Buchholz. I am not sure whom to believe in this age of false news. It should be interesting to see how the market plays out.

Over the Monster columnist Ben Buchanan today discussed the reported Red Sox demand in a contemplated trade of Clay Buchholz to the Miami Marlins: http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/12/12/13918280/red-sox-asked-marlins-for-a-prospect-in-trade-for-clay-buchholz The Marlins turned down the offer, according to the Miami Herald: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article120255323.html Scroll down.

I regret to report that an apparent administrator labeled me a troll at the Red Sox website Over the Monster. In a September 4 game thread, a poster had made fun of the last-place Athletics celebrating after a walk-off win against the Red Sox. "Lol celebration last place must be so good," the poster wrote: http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/9/4/12794362/game-136-red-sox-vs-athletics#comments I responded that the A's celebration was reminiscent of a celebration of a last-place team a year ago and provided a link to a video of a walk-off celebration by the 2015 Red Sox. In a post soon thereafter I wrote that "Last place teams need a reason to celebrate" and provided second link to a video of the 2015 Red Sox celebrating another walk-off win. My posts elicited this response from Over the Monster: At that point I decided that Over the Monster and I were not a good match. Over the Monster posts are often filled with profanity but void of substance. I like to think that my posts are quite the opposite. I have not acknowledged the warning and will not post there. Over the Monster is a great site for a poster who wants to swear profusely. I visit many baseball message boards, but excluding Mariner forums I spend more time on Red Sox boards than on all other forums combined. I have concentrated on the Red Sox just as a person studying a second language does not necessarily study all languages. I first came to a Red Sox forum in January 2006 when the Sox were rumored to be interested in Seattle outfielder Jeremy Reed as a replacement for the departed Johnny Damon. I wanted to compare how Red Sox fans and Mariners fans valued Reed ... and of course the valuations were much different. Through the process I gained a better idea of Reed's value. I know my ideas will be subjected to scrutiny when I post on a public forum. I am grateful to the many Red Sox fans who through the years have challenged my contributions in a civil manner ... and even those who have been less than civil. The discussions have made me more knowledgeable about the game I love. Peace be with everyone this holiday season.

Why does anyone study a second language? I visit many baseball message boards to learn more about the game I love.

So who was "stirring the pot" in this exchange?

A Seattle blogger took this away from his conversation Friday with Mariner GM Jerry Dipoto: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/12/10/13906272/dipotos-ll-christmas-gift