harmony

As we approach the 2017 season, Clay Buchholz has not won more than eight games in a season since 2013. The Red Sox rocket scientists have deployed Buchholz to the tune of a 4.60 ERA and 93 ERA+ over the last three seasons.

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/12/red_sox_trying_to_stay_under_l.html https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2016/12/05/red-sox-conscious-of-new-luxury-tax-penalties-this-offseason http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/12/07/massarotti-dombrowski-now-tasked-with-shedding-salary-to-get-red-sox-under-luxury-tax/ http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20161206/luxury-tax-penalties-dissuade-red-sox-from-offering-extensions-to-betts-bogaerts http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/boston-red-sox-taking-stricter-luxury-tax-penalties-consideration-offseason

By the same token, a horrendous stretch by Clay Buchholz "could mean the difference between playing baseball in October and playing golf then." And Buchholz has experienced horrendous stretches. That's the rub that limits Buchholz's value.

Another team's "need" for a Clay Buchholz-level starter may not be as great as the Red Sox need to get and stay under the luxury tax threshold. Most clubs can send out to the mound several starters who have posted a low 90s ERA+ over the past three seasons. On the other hand, the Red Sox cannot simply cut payroll by voiding contracts. The Sox could choose to exceed the luxury tax threshold for a third straight year but under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement would face onerous sanctions not limited to monetary penalties. I don't see the Red Sox in a position of strength in negotiations.

Did you mean lefty Drew Pomeranz?

Even with his spectacular stretch in 2015, over the past three seasons Clay Buchholz has an ERA of 4.60 and an ERA+ of 93 in only 67 starts (and 16 relief appearances). Over the same period Bartolo Colon has an ERA of 3.90 and an ERA+ of 97 while, more importantly, making 95 starts (and three relief appearances). I am generally a conservative investor who views Clay Buchholz as a volatile stock.

Koji Uehara reportedly is on the brink of signing with the Cubs:

Koji Uehara is close to signing with the Cubs, according to Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald:

I suspect the Red Sox did not open the negotiations by offering Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. It almost certainly was a process.

Boston GM Dave Dombrowski is taking calls on starting pitchers just as Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto is taking calls on Seth Smith. Perhaps eventually each will receive the right offer.

Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier reports that the Red Sox are currently under the luxury tax threshold: http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/12/07/red-sox-have-some-payroll-flexibility-but-not-lot/8kxd3dJOmnTWjEbsCODbfO/story.html

Do you think Dave Dombrowsi is making calls to get under the luxury tax threshold?

A team "desperate" for starting pitching will call a team equally desperate to get under the luxury tax threshold. Incentives abound.

Clay Buchholz may not be at the top of my wish list but the righthander is probably worth consideration.

As noted, Clay Buchholz has a higher ceiling but lower floor than many mid- to bottom-of-the-rotation starters. Is it worth $13.5 million to find out whether Buchholz will exceed the projected 1.7 WAR (valued at $13.5 million)? Steamer projects a 2017 WAR of 1.7 for Seattle righthander Nate Karns, who likely has a lower ceiling but higher floor than Buchholz. The Buchholz floor might be lower than that of Seattle lefthander Ariel Miranda, who is projected at 1.1 WAR in only 119 innings. Karns and Miranda currently slot as No. 4 and No. 5 in the Seattle rotation. I doubt Buchholz would land, as another posted suggested, an MLB-ready starter with options. Karns and Miranda fall into that category but are needed for rotation depth. Seattle's newly acquired righthander Chris Heston, who pitched a no-hitter among his 31 starts in 2015, comes with options and five years of team control. I suspect the Mariners will find a solution elsewhere but I enjoy discussing the possibilities with fans of other teams. A Mariner beat reporter writes: "Boston is eager to unload Buchholz, who is owed $13.5 million for 2017." Read more here: http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article119662648.html#storylink=cpy

2016 was a contract year for righthander Andrew Cashner, who posted a higher WAR than Clay Buchholz over the past four seasons. Cashner's WAR dropped from 2.7 in 2013, to 2.3 in 2014, to 2.3 in 2015 to 0.4 in his contract year. Steamer currently projects Buchholz with a 2017 WAR of 0.5 in 37 innings after previously projecting 1.7 WAR in 23 starts. Even using the higher 1.7 WAR Buchholz and his $13.5 million salary represent limited surplus value because this year 1.7 WAR was valued at ... $13.5 million.

The AL Central has represented the American League in the World Series in four of the past five seasons. The AL East has represented the American League in the World Series only once in the past seven seasons.

The Red Sox reportedly tried to trade for Wade Davis before trading for Tyler Thornburg: http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/12/07/source-red-sox-made-strong-run-at-royals-closer-wade-davis/

That's why I was suggesting a cost-saving Red Sox trade of Clay Buchholz for Seth Smith before the Sox opted for the lesser bat but glitzier glove of Mitch Moreland. Now I don't see a good match unless the Red Sox take the one-year, $6 million commitment to reliever Steve Cishek, who may miss the start of the 2017 season after undergoing labrum surgery on his hip. Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto made nonstop moves the first month of the offseason before heading to the Winter Meetings with the goal of landing a mid-rotation starter. Dipoto may walk away from the meetings with only rotation depth in 28-year-old San Francisco righthander Chris Heston, who missed much of the 2016 season after tossing a no-hitter among his 31 starts in 2015. The search continues:

Clay Buchholz has a higher ceiling but lower floor than many mid- to bottom-of-the-rotation starters.

Clay Buchholz would lengthen the Seattle rotation on a short one-year commitment with a projection in line with those for Nate Karns and Ariel Miranda, who are currently slotted as the No. 4 and No. 5. Hardly great.

I agree, which is why I offered his Steamer projection before the Chris Sale trade.

Think of what the Yankees got for two months of Aroldis Chapman and for two years and two months of Andrew Miller.

I merely speculated that down the road the most productive player might not be the prospect who was ranked the highest. Of the three prospects traded for Adrian Gonzalez, only Anthony Rizzo has developed into a productive Major Leaguer ... and a highly productive one at that. The other two -- top-ranked Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes -- have not. The Chris Sale trade will look good if only one of the players traded evolves into a productive Major Leaguer ... and in the likely event Sale produces.

Steamer projects Jorge Soler with a 2017 WAR of 0.3 in WAR with a wRC+ of 99 and a line of .246/.325/.424/.749 in 244 plate appearances. Soler, who turns 25 in February, could be closer to Rusney Castillo than to Yoenis Cespedes.