harmony

In 2016 Clay Buchholz avoided the disabled list for an entire season for the first time since 2009: http://m.mlb.com/player/453329/clay-buchholz Scroll down.

Especially if Clay Buchholz is hit by injury: https://e8k0luq9wg.execute-api.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/v1/articles/16486532/boston_red_sox_clay_buchholz_i.amp

Unless Clay Buchholz is the pitcher who goes down. It's happened.

We can agree that 14 Chris Hestons would not be a wise allocation of roster slots.

That's not the issue.

For Clay Buchholz, I've always used the early Steamer 2017 projection of 1.7 WAR in 23 starts, which is just under the average number of starts Buchholz has made over the past three years. It's the 1.7 fWAR that was valued this year at $13.5 million, giving Buchholz no surplus value with his 2017 salary of $13.5 million. Each team likely has its own proprietary means of projecting value, but Steamer is one widely cited and publicly available projection. Each front office could have a higher or lower projection for Buchholz.

That's the guy (and his 2016 ERA in five innings). Seattle continues to look for a veteran starting pitcher to push Chris Heston down from his current No. 6 slot on the starter depth chart. The Mariners hope to do better than Clay Buchholz but we'll see how the market plays out.

Interesting idea, but Clay Buchholz and his $13.5 million salary would need to have surplus value. With a Steamer's generous early projected 2017 WAR of 1.7 (since rescinded), valued this year at $13.5 million, Buchholz may not have surplus value.

Assuming the trade partner would pick up the entire 2017 salary of $13.5 million.

Mitch Moreland added $5.5 million to the Red Sox payroll while a trade of Clay Buchholz for Seth Smith would have cut the Red Sox payroll by $6.5 million (without taking up an added roster slot).

I suspect the Mariners and their fans are aiming higher than Clay Buchholz but in the end may be stuck with a Buchholz-caliber starter ... with hopes of a salary less than $13.5 million. Baseball columnist Jon Heyman reported that Seth Smith was nearly traded to the Red Sox before Mitch Moreland signed: Smith's $7 million salary would have helped offset Buchholz's $13.5 million salary if Buchholz was the trade target, as some have speculated. Seattle is trying to pare down its pool of platoon players as the Mariners pursue another starting pitcher. The search continues after the Winter Meetings where the Mariners picked up starter Chris Heston, like Buchholz a 6-foot-3, 190-pound righthander who pitched a no-hitter as a rookie. I question whether Buchholz is nearly $13 million better than Heston, who will earn the league minimum in 2017.

The one-year contracts for free agent starters Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Andrew Cashner suggest that Clay Buchholz would be hard-pressed to get a one-year, $13.5 million contract on the open market.

Seattle could probably survive the loss of righthander Nate Karns, whose 2017 Steamer WAR projection of 1.7 matches that of Clay Buchholz before the latter's projection was revised downward following the Chris Sale trade. As things stand now the Red Sox are the American League favorites but the Sox will have competition.

The flip side is that his value could drop if Clay Buchholz suffers yet another injury. Risks abound.

The Red Sox are bumping up against the luxury tax threshold if they're not already over for the third straight year. Sanctions under the new CBA add to the 50 percent tax a potential loss of draft picks and international signing money. I suspect the Red Sox want to avoid those penalties and still have budget space to make mid-season moves. http://www.telegram.com/sports/20161205/dombrowski-red-sox-will-try-to-stay-under-luxury-tax-threshold Clay Buchholz currently accounts for $13.5 million of the 2017 budget although projections suggest that the 32-year-old righthander has limited, if any, surplus value with a projected 2017 WAR of 1.7*, which this year was valued at $13.5 million. Bartolo Colon, with a projected 2017 WAR of 2.2, landed a one-year, $12.5 million contract. Andrew Cashner, with a projected 2017 WAR of 1.2 (and a higher WAR than Buchholz over the past four seasons), landed a one-year, $10 million contract. R.A. Dickey, with a projected 2017 WAR of 1.8, signed a one-year, $8 million contract. Neither Colon, Cashner nor Dickey cost his new team a draft pick or existing talent. The Red Sox should expect little in return if a trade partner assumes the entire $13.5 million owed Buchholz in 2017. A better return may come if the Sox pay part of the salary although that contribution will count against the Red Sox luxury tax threshold. We'll see whether the Red Sox avoid harsh penalties by coming in under the luxury tax threshold for the first time in three years. * the WAR projections are from Steamer, which revised the Buchholz projection down to 0.5 following the Chris Sale trade. I use the original 1.7 WAR projection for this valuation.

Indeed Clay Buchholz would be more marketable if the righthander were earning his 2013, 2014 or 2015 salary. But he's not ... and it makes a difference:

Clay Buchholz was worth more in 2013 than he is today. According to the FanGraphs conversion, Buchholz has been valued at $41.5 million over the past three seasons, which is in line with Steamer's 2017 WAR projection of 1.7, valued this year at $13.5 million. Steamer has since revised the 2017 projection down to 0.5 in six starts but the 1.7 WAR projection is more practical in the valuation. Buchholz was mentioned prominently in this Over the Monster piece today: http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/12/9/13898032/red-sox-prefer-to-keep-drew-pomeranz-trade-clay-buchholz ... including this tweet from an MLB blogger:

I proposed a one trade of outfielder/DH Seth Smith for Clay Buchholz because Seattle probably doesn't need a $7 million platoon partner (who could complement Chris Young). I don't recall another trade proposal involving Buchholz (although on other boards I've discussed proposed Seattle trades for Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Ervin Santana, Shelby Miller, Patrick Corbin, Homer Bailey, Zack Wheeler, Matt Garza, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb and even Wade Miley).

As we approach the 2017 season, Clay Buchholz has not won more than eight games in a season since 2013. The Red Sox rocket scientists have deployed Buchholz to the tune of a 4.60 ERA and 93 ERA+ over the last three seasons.

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/12/red_sox_trying_to_stay_under_l.html https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2016/12/05/red-sox-conscious-of-new-luxury-tax-penalties-this-offseason http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/12/07/massarotti-dombrowski-now-tasked-with-shedding-salary-to-get-red-sox-under-luxury-tax/ http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20161206/luxury-tax-penalties-dissuade-red-sox-from-offering-extensions-to-betts-bogaerts http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/boston-red-sox-taking-stricter-luxury-tax-penalties-consideration-offseason

By the same token, a horrendous stretch by Clay Buchholz "could mean the difference between playing baseball in October and playing golf then." And Buchholz has experienced horrendous stretches. That's the rub that limits Buchholz's value.

Another team's "need" for a Clay Buchholz-level starter may not be as great as the Red Sox need to get and stay under the luxury tax threshold. Most clubs can send out to the mound several starters who have posted a low 90s ERA+ over the past three seasons. On the other hand, the Red Sox cannot simply cut payroll by voiding contracts. The Sox could choose to exceed the luxury tax threshold for a third straight year but under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement would face onerous sanctions not limited to monetary penalties. I don't see the Red Sox in a position of strength in negotiations.

Did you mean lefty Drew Pomeranz?

Even with his spectacular stretch in 2015, over the past three seasons Clay Buchholz has an ERA of 4.60 and an ERA+ of 93 in only 67 starts (and 16 relief appearances). Over the same period Bartolo Colon has an ERA of 3.90 and an ERA+ of 97 while, more importantly, making 95 starts (and three relief appearances). I am generally a conservative investor who views Clay Buchholz as a volatile stock.

Koji Uehara reportedly is on the brink of signing with the Cubs: