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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    Clay Buchholz has a higher ceiling but lower floor than many mid- to bottom-of-the-rotation starters.
  2. harmony
    Clay Buchholz would lengthen the Seattle rotation on a short one-year commitment with a projection in line with those for Nate Karns and Ariel Miranda, who are currently slotted as the No. 4 and No. 5. Hardly great.
  3. harmony
    I agree, which is why I offered his Steamer projection before the Chris Sale trade.
  4. harmony
    Think of what the Yankees got for two months of Aroldis Chapman and for two years and two months of Andrew Miller.
  5. harmony
    I merely speculated that down the road the most productive player might not be the prospect who was ranked the highest. Of the three prospects traded for Adrian Gonzalez, only Anthony Rizzo has developed into a productive Major Leaguer ... and a highly productive one at that. The other two -- top-ranked Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes -- have not. The Chris Sale trade will look good if only one of the players traded evolves into a productive Major Leaguer ... and in the likely event Sale produces.
  6. harmony
    Steamer projects Jorge Soler with a 2017 WAR of 0.3 in WAR with a wRC+ of 99 and a line of .246/.325/.424/.749 in 244 plate appearances. Soler, who turns 25 in February, could be closer to Rusney Castillo than to Yoenis Cespedes.
  7. harmony
    My speculative post looks forward, not backward to prospect rankings.
  8. harmony
    As noted, the Chris Sale trade came on the sixth anniversary of the Red Sox trade for Adrian Gonzalez, who posted a career-high 6.1 fWAR in his first Boston season. I suspect the package of Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz includes the equivalent of one Anthony Rizzo, one Casey Kelly and one Reymond Fuentes. At the time of his December 2010 trade to Boston, Adrian Gonzalez was one year older than Chris Sale is today. Gonzalez came with one year of team control at $6.2 million before signing a seven-year, $154 million extension in April 2011.
  9. harmony
    Jon Heyman reports that Seth Smith was nearly traded to Boston before the Red Sox signed Mitch Moreland: Smith is the better hitter but Moreland is the better defender. Here are Steamer's 2017 projections for Smith and Moreland: SS 486 PA, .250/.337/.418/.755, wRC+ 108, WAR 1.2 MM 502 PA, .255/.320/.435/.755, wRC+ 96, WAR 0.7 Moreland added $5.5 million to the Red Sox payroll while a trade of Clay Buchholz for Smith would have reduced the payroll by $6.5 million. But the Red Sox now retain Buchholz as an asset.
  10. harmony
    The Mariners won't trade Kyle Lewis or Luiz Gohara for one year of 32-year-old Clay Buchholz, who has limited surplus value with his $13.5 million salary and a projected 2017 WAR of 1.7 as a starter (before being revised down to 0.5 WAR in 37 innings following Tuesday's trade for Chris Sale): http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P
  11. harmony
    An Instagram account in the name of David Ortiz had an interesting reaction to the Chris Sale trade: https://www.instagram.com/p/BNsljbahEPp/?taken-by=davidortiz&hl=en
  12. harmony
    According to Baseball Reference, Eduardo Rodriguez has one year and 130 days of MLB service, placing the lefthander on the cusp of being a Super Two if he spends the entire 2017 season on the MLB roster. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodried05.shtml Rodriguez would need to spend most of the year at Pawtucket for the Red Sox to get another year of team control.
  13. harmony
    Why the bitterness? I merely brought up a Red Sox trade for a player who posted a career-high fWAR of 6.1 during his first season in Boston: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1908&position=1B
  14. harmony
    How could I be bitter about a Mariner club that has made a slew of tactical moves to improve on this year's 86-win team? Some teams improve by raising the ceiling while others improve more efficiently by raising the floor. Over the past three seasons the Mariners have experienced neither the highs nor the lows the Red Sox have (although Seattle's cumulative winning record is better than Boston's losing record over that period). I hope both clubs field competitive teams in 2017.
  15. harmony
    Today is the sixth anniversary of the Red Sox trade for Adrian Gonzalez: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaad01.shtml#trans The Carl Crawford signing came five days later: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/crawfca02.shtml#trans
  16. harmony
    A Mariner beat reporter tweets that Seattle is likely to look into Clay Buchholz or Drew Pomeranz:
  17. harmony
    In light of the looming luxury tax threshold, Boston GM Dave Dombrowski deserves high marks for acquiring Chris Sale and Tyler Thornburg while adding only a projected $8.7 million to the payroll for luxury tax purposes.
  18. harmony
    The Red Sox will pay the entire remaining $31.2 million in obligations to Yoan Moncada, according to Bruce Levine: Does any of that count against the Red Sox for luxury tax purposes?
  19. harmony
    Using the SoxProspects rankings, Boston traded its. No. 1, No. 5, No. 7 and No. 21 prospects for three years of the extremely team-friendly contract of ace Chris Sale. http://www.soxprospects.com/ I suspect the White Sox got a fair return.
  20. harmony
    It's done, according to Ken Rosenthal: Moncada, Kopech and two other prospects.
  21. harmony
    Compare the lines for Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg in the season before each reliever's trade to the Red Sox: CS 2015 70 IP, 13 SV, 22 BB, 92 K, 2.31 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 166 OPS+, 2.1 fWAR TT 2016 67 IP, 13 SV, 25 BB, 90 K, 2.15 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 199 OPS+, 2.0 fWAR
  22. harmony
    Boston GM Dave Dombrowski apparently is not reluctant to trade prospects for relievers. Using the SoxProspects rankings, the Red Sox traded No. 4 Manuel Margot, No. 6 Javier Guerra and No. 13 Logan Allen for Craig Kimbrel, No. 15 Pat Light for Fernando Abad and No. 10 Mauricio Dubon in a package for Tyler Thornburg. Carson Smith and Roenis Elias cost the Red Sox only Wade Miley and No. 24 Jonathan Aro.
  23. harmony
    The Milwaukee Brewers sold high on reliever Tyler Thornburg, whom Steamer projects with a 2017 WAR of 0.5 with an ERA of 3.94 in 65 innings: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10688&position=P At the same time, the Red Sox probably sold high on Mauricio Dubon, who posted a gaudy .323/.379/.461/840 line in 549 plate appearances across High A and Double A this season as a 21-year-old shortstop. http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=dubon-000mau A good trade should benefit each team. Given each club's needs, that might be accomplished with the trade of five years of Travis Shaw and six years each of Mauricio Dubon and Josh Pennington for three years of Tyler Thornburg.
  24. harmony
    Moon, I'm at it again with Clay Buchholz. Would anyone trade one year of 32-year-old righthander Clay Buchholz at $13.5 million for one year of 34-year-old Seattle outfielder Seth Smith to serve in a designated hitter platoon with Chris Young? The lefthand-hitting Smith, who will earn $7 million next season, has posted a .272/.355/.472/.827 career line against righthanders, including a .256/.351/.431/.782 line this year. Steamer projects Smith with a 2017 WAR of 1.2 in 486 plate appearances and Buchholz with a 2017 WAR of 1.7 in 23 starts. The deal would save the Red Sox $6.5 million off the 2017 payroll.
  25. harmony
    The Los Angeles Dodgers are shopping starters Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir, according to ESPN's Buster Olney: The 33-year-old McCarthy is owed $20 million over the next two seasons while Kazmir, who turns 33 in January, is owed $32 million over the next two seasons. Steamer projects the righthanded McCarthy and the lefthanded Kazmir each with 2017 WAR of 1.5 in 16 starts: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4662&position=P http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4897&position=P Steamer projects 32-year-old righthander Clay Buchholz, who has one year and $13.5 million remaining on his contract, with a 2017 WAR of 1.7 in 23 starts: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P It should be an interesting trade market for blemished starters.
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