harmony

Koji Uehara is close to signing with the Cubs, according to Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald:

I suspect the Red Sox did not open the negotiations by offering Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech. It almost certainly was a process.

Boston GM Dave Dombrowski is taking calls on starting pitchers just as Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto is taking calls on Seth Smith. Perhaps eventually each will receive the right offer.

Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier reports that the Red Sox are currently under the luxury tax threshold: http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/12/07/red-sox-have-some-payroll-flexibility-but-not-lot/8kxd3dJOmnTWjEbsCODbfO/story.html

Do you think Dave Dombrowsi is making calls to get under the luxury tax threshold?

A team "desperate" for starting pitching will call a team equally desperate to get under the luxury tax threshold. Incentives abound.

Clay Buchholz may not be at the top of my wish list but the righthander is probably worth consideration.

As noted, Clay Buchholz has a higher ceiling but lower floor than many mid- to bottom-of-the-rotation starters. Is it worth $13.5 million to find out whether Buchholz will exceed the projected 1.7 WAR (valued at $13.5 million)? Steamer projects a 2017 WAR of 1.7 for Seattle righthander Nate Karns, who likely has a lower ceiling but higher floor than Buchholz. The Buchholz floor might be lower than that of Seattle lefthander Ariel Miranda, who is projected at 1.1 WAR in only 119 innings. Karns and Miranda currently slot as No. 4 and No. 5 in the Seattle rotation. I doubt Buchholz would land, as another posted suggested, an MLB-ready starter with options. Karns and Miranda fall into that category but are needed for rotation depth. Seattle's newly acquired righthander Chris Heston, who pitched a no-hitter among his 31 starts in 2015, comes with options and five years of team control. I suspect the Mariners will find a solution elsewhere but I enjoy discussing the possibilities with fans of other teams. A Mariner beat reporter writes: "Boston is eager to unload Buchholz, who is owed $13.5 million for 2017." Read more here: http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article119662648.html#storylink=cpy

2016 was a contract year for righthander Andrew Cashner, who posted a higher WAR than Clay Buchholz over the past four seasons. Cashner's WAR dropped from 2.7 in 2013, to 2.3 in 2014, to 2.3 in 2015 to 0.4 in his contract year. Steamer currently projects Buchholz with a 2017 WAR of 0.5 in 37 innings after previously projecting 1.7 WAR in 23 starts. Even using the higher 1.7 WAR Buchholz and his $13.5 million salary represent limited surplus value because this year 1.7 WAR was valued at ... $13.5 million.

The AL Central has represented the American League in the World Series in four of the past five seasons. The AL East has represented the American League in the World Series only once in the past seven seasons.

The Red Sox reportedly tried to trade for Wade Davis before trading for Tyler Thornburg: http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/12/07/source-red-sox-made-strong-run-at-royals-closer-wade-davis/

That's why I was suggesting a cost-saving Red Sox trade of Clay Buchholz for Seth Smith before the Sox opted for the lesser bat but glitzier glove of Mitch Moreland. Now I don't see a good match unless the Red Sox take the one-year, $6 million commitment to reliever Steve Cishek, who may miss the start of the 2017 season after undergoing labrum surgery on his hip. Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto made nonstop moves the first month of the offseason before heading to the Winter Meetings with the goal of landing a mid-rotation starter. Dipoto may walk away from the meetings with only rotation depth in 28-year-old San Francisco righthander Chris Heston, who missed much of the 2016 season after tossing a no-hitter among his 31 starts in 2015. The search continues:

Clay Buchholz has a higher ceiling but lower floor than many mid- to bottom-of-the-rotation starters.

Clay Buchholz would lengthen the Seattle rotation on a short one-year commitment with a projection in line with those for Nate Karns and Ariel Miranda, who are currently slotted as the No. 4 and No. 5. Hardly great.

I agree, which is why I offered his Steamer projection before the Chris Sale trade.

Think of what the Yankees got for two months of Aroldis Chapman and for two years and two months of Andrew Miller.

I merely speculated that down the road the most productive player might not be the prospect who was ranked the highest. Of the three prospects traded for Adrian Gonzalez, only Anthony Rizzo has developed into a productive Major Leaguer ... and a highly productive one at that. The other two -- top-ranked Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes -- have not. The Chris Sale trade will look good if only one of the players traded evolves into a productive Major Leaguer ... and in the likely event Sale produces.

Steamer projects Jorge Soler with a 2017 WAR of 0.3 in WAR with a wRC+ of 99 and a line of .246/.325/.424/.749 in 244 plate appearances. Soler, who turns 25 in February, could be closer to Rusney Castillo than to Yoenis Cespedes.

My speculative post looks forward, not backward to prospect rankings.

As noted, the Chris Sale trade came on the sixth anniversary of the Red Sox trade for Adrian Gonzalez, who posted a career-high 6.1 fWAR in his first Boston season. I suspect the package of Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz includes the equivalent of one Anthony Rizzo, one Casey Kelly and one Reymond Fuentes. At the time of his December 2010 trade to Boston, Adrian Gonzalez was one year older than Chris Sale is today. Gonzalez came with one year of team control at $6.2 million before signing a seven-year, $154 million extension in April 2011.

Jon Heyman reports that Seth Smith was nearly traded to Boston before the Red Sox signed Mitch Moreland: Smith is the better hitter but Moreland is the better defender. Here are Steamer's 2017 projections for Smith and Moreland: SS 486 PA, .250/.337/.418/.755, wRC+ 108, WAR 1.2 MM 502 PA, .255/.320/.435/.755, wRC+ 96, WAR 0.7 Moreland added $5.5 million to the Red Sox payroll while a trade of Clay Buchholz for Smith would have reduced the payroll by $6.5 million. But the Red Sox now retain Buchholz as an asset.

The Mariners won't trade Kyle Lewis or Luiz Gohara for one year of 32-year-old Clay Buchholz, who has limited surplus value with his $13.5 million salary and a projected 2017 WAR of 1.7 as a starter (before being revised down to 0.5 WAR in 37 innings following Tuesday's trade for Chris Sale): http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3543&position=P

An Instagram account in the name of David Ortiz had an interesting reaction to the Chris Sale trade: https://www.instagram.com/p/BNsljbahEPp/?taken-by=davidortiz&hl=en

According to Baseball Reference, Eduardo Rodriguez has one year and 130 days of MLB service, placing the lefthander on the cusp of being a Super Two if he spends the entire 2017 season on the MLB roster. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodried05.shtml Rodriguez would need to spend most of the year at Pawtucket for the Red Sox to get another year of team control.

Why the bitterness? I merely brought up a Red Sox trade for a player who posted a career-high fWAR of 6.1 during his first season in Boston: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1908&position=1B