harmony

Seattle needed a righthanded bat at first base and/or right field and Danny Valencia fits the bill. His noted defensive deficiencies are concentrated at third base where Gold Glove finalist Kyle Seager already has it covered for the Mariners. The M's had acquired Paul Blackburn and lefthand-hitting first baseman Dan Vogelbach for lefthander Mike Montgomery at the trade deadline. Every move Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto has made since September 2015 has made some sense although not all have worked out. Dipoto again is moving early in the offseason with the trades for Valencia and veteran catcher Carlos Ruiz.

Two to five years of Nate Jones, who posted 1.8 fWAR this year, is probably worth more than two years of David Robertson, who posted 1.0 fWAR this year.

A BP Boston blogger discusses a trade for White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier: http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/11/2017-offseason-oracle-a-different-type-of-white-sox-trade/ I question whether Blake Swihart, Mauricio Dubon, Williams Jerez and Henry Owens would be enough to land Frazier and two to five years of stud reliever Nate Jones (who probably has more trade value than Robertson or Frazier).

Would anyone trade 32-year-old starter Clay Buchholz, who is owed $13.5 million in the final year of his contract, for Falmouth native Steve Cishek, the 30-year-old Seattle reliever who is owed $6 million in the final year of his contract? This year Buchholz posted 0.5 fWAR while Cishek posted 0.9 fWAR. FanGraphs Depth Charts project 2017 fWAR of 1.7 for Buchholz and 0.8 for Cishek. Cishek could be an eighth-inning candidate with Carson Smith, another reliever who did not hold down the closer's role in Seattle.

To be precise, the Seattle Mariners had an OPS of .708 from the catcher's slot in 2016 (but .464 the previous year). I suspect the Mariners would keep Mike Zunino over Blake Swihart with veteran Carlos Ruiz as the backup.

I owe no one an answer but I provide relevant information to help a reader decide ... or not. No one should care about my opinion if I had one.

One report yesterday said the Red Sox are targeting a June 1 return for Carson Smith: http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/red-soxs-carson-smith-targeting-june-return/

I guess apple-to-apple would be Jarrod Saltalamacchia in November 2009 and Blake Swihart in November 2016. I suspect Saltalamacchia lost value between November 2009 and his trade on July 31, 2010, after playing only two games for Texas on April 5 and 7, 2010. At the time of the trade, Saltalamachia was a 2010 minor leaguer with 63 games at Oklahoma City. In other words, Saltalamacchia's value was higher in November 2009 than it was on July 31, 2010 (although Saltalamacchia missed the end of the 2009 season with a shoulder injury). Swihart's current value is certainly impacted by his June 4 ankle injury that ultimately required season-ending surgery. The injury marked the second straight year that Swihart had been sidelined with an injury at the left ankle or below. As one blogger wrote recently: http://bosoxinjection.com/2016/10/21/red-sox-new-big-bats-spell-doom-blake-swihart-2017/ As I have written, Swihart's performance in the first four months of 2017 should determine whether he has more, less or about the same trade value as Saltalamacchia had on July 31, 2010.

At the MLB level, Jarrod Saltalamacchia has a career OPS+ of 93 and a career wRC+ of 92 while Blake Swihart has a career OPS+ of 90 and a career wRC+ of 92: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/saltaja01.shtml http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5557&position=C http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C

Compare the minor league slash lines of Blake Swihart and Jarrod Saltalamacchia: BS 1466 PA, .283/.340/.418/.758 JS 1961 PA, .269/.363/.455/.818 http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=swihar000bla http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=saltal001jar

Again, Blake Swihart may evolve into a top-tier catcher ... or not. I would note that at the trade deadline 2017 Swihart will be the same age Jarrod Saltalamacchia was on July 31, 2010, when the Rangers traded the switch-hitting catcher to the Red Sox for Chris McGuiness, Roman Mendez, Michael Thomas and cash. Baseball America once ranked Saltalamacchia No. 18 on its Top 100 prospect list. McGuiness and Thomas are apparently out of organized baseball while the 26-year-old Mendez had a decent 2016 season in the Pawtucket bullpen. Swihart's performance the first four months of 2017 should determine whether he has more, less or about the same value as Saltalamacchia did in 2010.

Steamer's early wRC+ projections have Blake Swihart at 86, Devin Mesoraco at 86, Mike Zunino at 91 and Travis d'Arnaud at 100 after the catchers peaked at No. 17, No. 16, No. 17 and No. 17, respectively, in Baseball America's Top 100 prospect rankings through the years. Setting aside any questions above defensive abilities, compare the minor league slash line for each catcher. Swihart may evolve into an All Star catcher ... or not.

Blake Swihart has a career wRC+ of 92 in 103 games despite a career BABIP of .357: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C One system projects Swihart with a wRC+ of 86. That might be an acceptable number for a defensive whiz of a catcher but otherwise the red flags may scare off potential suitors.

Jason Hammel probably has not slumped for extended periods like Clay Buchholz has. In terms of best fWAR seasons, Buchholz posted 3.2 in 2015, 3.0 in 2010 and 2.8 in 2013 while Hammel posted 3.5 in 2009, 3.2 in 2010 and 2.4 in 2015. Just for fantasy kicks, read the results of one poll: https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/draft/clay-buchholz-jason-hammel.php

Dexter Fowler is a free agent who reportedly is interested in returning to the Chicago Cubs. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17965945/dexter-fowler-says-become-free-agent-chicago-cubs-play

How does the $13.5 million Clay Buchholz option compare with that of Jason Hammel, whose $12 million option for 2017 has been declined by the Chicago Cubs? The 32-year-old Buchholz has been valued at 5.3 fWAR in 423 innings over the past three seasons, including 0.5 fWAR in 139.1 innings this year. Hammel, who is two years older than Buchholz, has been valued at 5.6 fWAR in 513.2 innings over the past three seasons, including 1.5 fWAR in 166.2 innings this year.

In trades from the Yankees to the Red Sox in the past 50 years: Kelly Johnson (2014), Jim Mecir (1997), Tony Armas (1997), Don Baylor (1986), Mario Guerrero (1972), Danny Cater (1972) and Elston Howard (1967)

Blake Swihart, who turns 25 years old on Opening Day 2017, may well hit well enough for a catcher but I question whether he'll hit well enough to be an everyday position player elsewhere. Compare these numbers for these Red Sox players with limited MLB experience: Swihart, Travis Shaw, Rusney Castillo, Bryce Brentz and Christian Vazquez: BS DOB 4-3-92, 103 G, 90 OPS+, 92 wRC+ TS DOB 4-16-90, 210 G, 96 OPS+, 97 wRC+ RC DOB 7-9-87, 99 G, 82 OPS+, 82 wRC+ BB DOB 12-30-88, 34 G, 84 OPS+, 83 wRC+ CV DOB 8-21-90, 112 G, 64 OPS+, 61 wRC+ After posting strong numbers at High A and Double A in 2012 and 2013, Swihart posted a wRC+ of 77 in 18 games at Triple A in 2014, a wRC+ of 111 in 20 games at Triple A in 2015 and a wRC+ of 91 in 29 games at Triple A in 2016. Contrast those numbers with the wRC+ of 172, 126, 98 and 118 posted by Ryan Lavarnway in more at-bats over four seasons in Pawtucket. Swihart's career may depend on the development of his defensive skills behind the plate.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3511

From today's MLB Trade Rumors chat: https://www.jotcast.com/chat?id=1683

What is the trade value of lefthander Brian Johnson, who turns 26 in December after posting a 4.09 ERA (4.73 FIP) and 4.21 BB/9 despite a .284 BABIP in 15 starts this year at Triple A? What is the trade value of 24-year-old lefthander Henry Owens, who posted a 3.53 ERA (4.48 FIP) and a concerning 5.30 BB/9 in 24 starts this year at Triple A? Other teams might be done with the southpaws as well.

Andrew Benintendi, Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber each made the jump to the majors the season after being drafted out of college. Compare their first-year MLB lines: AB 2016 118 PA, .295/.359/.476/.835, OPS+ 117 MC 2015, 194 PA, .270/.335/.506/.841, OPS+ 130 KS 2015 273 PA, .246/.355/.487/.842, OPS+ 130

I am 61 years old and neither the Cubs nor the Guardians have won a World Series in my lifetime ... the Cubs have not played in a World Series since I was before I was born. Of course the Dodgers could keep the Cubs out of the World Series ... again.

Because not all injuries are of equal severity?

Earlier this month the Boston Globe reported on Carson Smith: "After undergoing Tommy John surgery, he’ll probably miss at least half of 2017 too." https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2016/10/03/final-regular-season-red-sox-player-power-rankings-win-dance-repeat The Providence Journal last week reported that Carson Smith "could be an option for the second half of the season." http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20161013/red-sox-roster-reset-biggest-bullpen-improvements-figure-to-come-from-within