harmony

ESPN blogger Scott Lauber on John Farrell and the Red Sox: http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/50485/blame-the-players-not-the-manager-for-red-soxs-latest-implosion

Cool Standings still gives the Red Sox a 72.8 percent probability of advancing to the postseason despite their daunting schedule: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

Where is Nelson Cruz, whose contract resembles Adam Dunn's?

On the flip side, Seattle has come back to win two games after two gut-wrenching losses in which the Mariners blew a 6-0 lead (then up 6-3 going into the bottom of the ninth) on Sunday and could not protect a lead against the Red Sox going into the eighth inning on Monday. Every team needs to respond to disappointing losses.

Drew Pomeranz is 3-0 lifetime against the Seattle Mariners with a 1.21 ERA in 11 appearances, including two starts, covering 22.1 innings: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=pomerdr01&year=Career&t=p

Last month Seattle and Toronto swapped Drew Storen and Joaquin Benoit in a trade of struggling once-dominant relievers.

I may have picked the wrong day to bench Hisashi Iwakuma on my fantasy team.

I may have picked the wrong day to bench Hisashi Iwakuma on my fantasy team.

Going into tonight's game Hisashi Iwakuma had an ERA of 8.59 in eight career starts against the Red Sox: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=iwakuhi01&year=Career&t=p

The market for a starting pitcher differs from the market for a third or fourth outfielder.

For all their flaws, none of those players had posted a negative fWAR in the last two years until Prince Fielder dropped a negative 1.9 fWAR this season. Pablo Sandoval, with a 2015 fWAR of a negative 2.0 and a 2016 fWAR of a negative 0.2 in three games this season, is probably in a class of his own.

James Shields' team is responsible for only $22 million over the next two years in the likely event the righthander does not opt out of his contract following this season. Given the tight market for starting pitchers, Shields and his contract have significant value.

James Shields had far more trade value than Pablo Sandoval last offseason and the difference in value has widened this season. Shields remains under team control through 2019 (unless the righthander opts out after this season) with only a team option for the final year. At the time of his trade in June, the Padres were to pay about $30 million of the $57 million remaining on the Shields contract. Shields had a horrific start this season en route to his current fWAR of 0.4, but has an ERA of 2.94 over his last eight starts. ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project fWAR between 0.5 and 0.8 over his final 11 starts this year. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7059&position=P Meanwhile, coming off a baseball-worst negative 2.0 fWAR in 2015, this year Sandoval underwent season-ending surgery after posting a negative 0.2 fWAR in only three games. ZiPS curiously projects Sandoval with 0.1 fWAR in 33 games the rest of the season. With nearly $60 million remaining in is contract after this season, Sandoval may have the worst contract in baseball. Any trade of Sandoval would require that the Red Sox add a player of significant value to offset Sandoval's negative value. An equivalent trade might be Hanley Ramirez (in the Shields role) for Prince Fielder (in the Sandoval role), a trade the Red Sox would never do. Would the Red Sox trade Ramirez for Shields? Would the Red Sox trade Sandoval for Fielder? Those are the tougher questions.

Sort of the flip side of Monday's game.

The Red Sox still have an 80 percent chance of advancing to the postseason, according to Cool Standings: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

After Wednesday's game, the Red Sox will have played 59 of 99 games at home, where the Sox so far have been winning at a .596 clip. The Red Sox play 41 of the remaining 63 games on the road, where the Sox have been winning at a .525 clip. Before the season I thought July would be critical for the Sox with 18 of their first 21 July games at Fenway Park. The Sox have responded well. The road ahead could be rough, especially in September, when the Sox play only eight of 27 games at Fenway Park.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/2012-college-player-of-the-year-mike-zunino-13591/#sz7yC3eXvQPSQu49.97

Here are A.J. Pollock's 2015 counting stats and Xander Bogaerts' 2016 stats prorated for the entire season: AJP .315/367/.498/.865, 132 OPS+, 111 R, 20 HR, 76 RBI, 39 SB XB .329./.388/.475/.863, 126 OPS+, 121 R, 18 HR, 104 RBI, 20 SB I suspect the runs and RBI totals are impacted by a 2016 Red Sox lineup that is probably more productive than the 2015 Diamondback lineup. Learn more on the arbitration process: http://bizofbaseball.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=643:arbitration&catid=44:business-of-baseball-glossary&Itemid=75 http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/mlb-salary-arbitration-process-breakdown-spring-training-2016/4jkawqkczi8i17cb4rhqjxseh

A.J. Pollock entered his first arbitration with 13.5 fWAR in 400 career games, including an fWAR of 6.6 the preceding year. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9256&position=OF Xander Bogaerts has posted 8.2 fWAR in 403 career games, including an fWAR of 3.4 87 games into the 162-game 2016 season. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12161&position=SS The fWAR positional adjustment already gives Bogaerts more credit at shortstop than Pollock gets in the outfield: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/war-position-players/

Miami righthander Jose Fernandez earns $2.8 million this season in his first year of arbitration. Coming of a 7.4 bWAR season, Arizona outfielder A.J. Pollock was projected to earned $4.8 million in his first year of arbitration but instead signed for $10.25 million over two years.

And the Padres probably would have preferred Yoan Moncada to Anderson Espinoza. I suspect the Red Sox front office exercised due diligence and concluded that the club could not pass up an Espinoza-for-Pomeranz trade.

Aaron Hill and Brad Ziegler are solid acquisitions at reasonable costs but the starting rotation still needs attention.

Travis Shaw is a 26-year-old whose long history of struggles against lefthanders dates back to his minor league days. The Red Sox should be grateful for Shaw's contributions to date but we should all temper our expectations going forward.

Also missing are the innings totals for Josh Beckett and Julio Teheran. In the three seasons before his trade to Boston, Josh Beckett totaled 142, 156.2 and 178.2 innings: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beckejo02.shtml In the last three seasons Julio Teheran has totaled 185.2, 221 and 200.2 innings: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/teherju01.shtml With 112.2 innings so far this year, Teheran is on pace for 211.1 innings. The ability to eat innings alone has value.

Is that proposal nuttier than the Red Sox trading the SoxProspects No. 4, 6, 13 and 25 prospects for two years of a 27-year-old reliever who was owed $25 million? The Red Sox package included prospects ranked No. 14 and No. 56 by Baseball Prospectus in February. Bear in mind that 25-year-old Julio Teheran remains under team control for four-and-a-half years for about $40 million total (not counting the $50,000 bonus for his All Star selection this year). Bear mind that Teheran has doubled Craig Kimbrel's fWAR so far this year. The Red Sox may not be willing to meet the demands for a starter of Teheran's caliber and team control but the Braves are justified is asking a high price.