harmony

Jason Hammel probably has not slumped for extended periods like Clay Buchholz has. In terms of best fWAR seasons, Buchholz posted 3.2 in 2015, 3.0 in 2010 and 2.8 in 2013 while Hammel posted 3.5 in 2009, 3.2 in 2010 and 2.4 in 2015. Just for fantasy kicks, read the results of one poll: https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/draft/clay-buchholz-jason-hammel.php

Dexter Fowler is a free agent who reportedly is interested in returning to the Chicago Cubs. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17965945/dexter-fowler-says-become-free-agent-chicago-cubs-play

How does the $13.5 million Clay Buchholz option compare with that of Jason Hammel, whose $12 million option for 2017 has been declined by the Chicago Cubs? The 32-year-old Buchholz has been valued at 5.3 fWAR in 423 innings over the past three seasons, including 0.5 fWAR in 139.1 innings this year. Hammel, who is two years older than Buchholz, has been valued at 5.6 fWAR in 513.2 innings over the past three seasons, including 1.5 fWAR in 166.2 innings this year.

In trades from the Yankees to the Red Sox in the past 50 years: Kelly Johnson (2014), Jim Mecir (1997), Tony Armas (1997), Don Baylor (1986), Mario Guerrero (1972), Danny Cater (1972) and Elston Howard (1967)

Blake Swihart, who turns 25 years old on Opening Day 2017, may well hit well enough for a catcher but I question whether he'll hit well enough to be an everyday position player elsewhere. Compare these numbers for these Red Sox players with limited MLB experience: Swihart, Travis Shaw, Rusney Castillo, Bryce Brentz and Christian Vazquez: BS DOB 4-3-92, 103 G, 90 OPS+, 92 wRC+ TS DOB 4-16-90, 210 G, 96 OPS+, 97 wRC+ RC DOB 7-9-87, 99 G, 82 OPS+, 82 wRC+ BB DOB 12-30-88, 34 G, 84 OPS+, 83 wRC+ CV DOB 8-21-90, 112 G, 64 OPS+, 61 wRC+ After posting strong numbers at High A and Double A in 2012 and 2013, Swihart posted a wRC+ of 77 in 18 games at Triple A in 2014, a wRC+ of 111 in 20 games at Triple A in 2015 and a wRC+ of 91 in 29 games at Triple A in 2016. Contrast those numbers with the wRC+ of 172, 126, 98 and 118 posted by Ryan Lavarnway in more at-bats over four seasons in Pawtucket. Swihart's career may depend on the development of his defensive skills behind the plate.

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3511

From today's MLB Trade Rumors chat: https://www.jotcast.com/chat?id=1683

What is the trade value of lefthander Brian Johnson, who turns 26 in December after posting a 4.09 ERA (4.73 FIP) and 4.21 BB/9 despite a .284 BABIP in 15 starts this year at Triple A? What is the trade value of 24-year-old lefthander Henry Owens, who posted a 3.53 ERA (4.48 FIP) and a concerning 5.30 BB/9 in 24 starts this year at Triple A? Other teams might be done with the southpaws as well.

Andrew Benintendi, Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber each made the jump to the majors the season after being drafted out of college. Compare their first-year MLB lines: AB 2016 118 PA, .295/.359/.476/.835, OPS+ 117 MC 2015, 194 PA, .270/.335/.506/.841, OPS+ 130 KS 2015 273 PA, .246/.355/.487/.842, OPS+ 130

I am 61 years old and neither the Cubs nor the Guardians have won a World Series in my lifetime ... the Cubs have not played in a World Series since I was before I was born. Of course the Dodgers could keep the Cubs out of the World Series ... again.

Because not all injuries are of equal severity?

Earlier this month the Boston Globe reported on Carson Smith: "After undergoing Tommy John surgery, he’ll probably miss at least half of 2017 too." https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2016/10/03/final-regular-season-red-sox-player-power-rankings-win-dance-repeat The Providence Journal last week reported that Carson Smith "could be an option for the second half of the season." http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20161013/red-sox-roster-reset-biggest-bullpen-improvements-figure-to-come-from-within

Remember when the Carson Smith trade was considered a big deal? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/redsox-trade-wade-miley-mariners.html The jury is still out on that one as the Red Sox await the return of the reliever. Wade Miley posted 0.6 fWAR and 0.4 bWAR in 19 starts for Seattle before being traded for another lefthander, Ariel Miranda, who posted 0.0 fWAR and 0.9 bWAR in 11 appearances with the Mariners. Jonathan Aro posted 0.0 fWAR in one appearance in Seattle while Carson Smith posted 0.0 fWAR in three appearances and Roenis Elias a negative 0.2 fWAR in three appearances in Boston. Smith remains under team control for four years although the righthander is expected to miss the first months of the 2017 season. Elias likely remains under team control for five years (including four arbitration seasons), Miranda for six years and Aro for six years. In the end the trade may have little impact on either team.

I expressed this precise sentiment to a Red Sox fan today.

For what it's worth, this year the Mariners got 2.5 fWAR and the Red Sox 2.2 fWAR from the catching position. Seattle got 1.2 fWAR in only 55 games from 25-year-old Mike Zunino. The M's would not want to downgrade to Swihart, who is barely one year younger than Zunino, given Zunino's far superior defensive skills. This season Zunino had a wRC+ of 115 and Swihart a wRC+ of 95, albeit in small samples. Zunino's defensive skills rival those of Christian Vazquez, who is older than Zunino. Seattle's Jesus Sucre is Sandy Leon's counterpart while veteran catchers Chris Iannetta and Ryan Hanigan await decisions on 2017 team options. I suspect Seattle is looking to contend in 2017 after finishing fourth in the league in run differential en route to 86 wins this year. A prospect package is not all that attractive.

Kansas City infielder Cheslor Cuthbert is working out at second base in the Arizona Instructional League: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article105886017.html I suspect the Royals would have some interest in Rafael Devers.

To be precise, this year Francisco Lindor posted 6.3 fWAR and 5.7 bWAR while Xander Bogaerts posted 4.7 fWAR and 3.7 bWAR. The 24-year-old Bogaerts remains under team control for three increasingly expensive arbitration seasons while Lindor, who is 13 months younger than Bogaerts, remains under team control for five seasons. As a likely Super Two, 26-year-old Jackie Bradley remains under team control for four increasingly expensive arbitration seasons.

A net $39.5 million for one year of Clay Buchholz and four years of Rusney Castillo is too steep a price for two players with a combined age of 61 coming off a season with a combined fWAR of 0.5.

Cleveland righthander Josh Tomlin started the only game I've ever attended at Fenway Park, going seven innings and surrendering a grand slam home run to Adrian Beltre in a 6-2 Red Sox victory in 2010: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201008050.shtml

Is Rusney Castillo in a transactional purgatory? Castillo is owed $46 million over the next four seasons but his salary does not count against the Red Sox luxury tax threshold because the 29-year-old outfielder has been removed from the 40-man roster. However, any team seeking to acquire Castillo for its 40-man roster would need count his salary in its luxury tax calculations. The Red Sox likely would need to pay much of the $46 million remaining on the contract but would have less motivation to do so because the salary does not count for their luxury tax purposes. But wait a second ... if the Red Sox pay part of the salary of a player on another team's 40-man roster, the Red Sox contribution should count in the Red Sox luxury tax calculation. Hence, the purgatory. This Seattle fan thought of Castillo because the strong-hitting Mariners need to improve their defense, especially in the outfield. I wondered how much the Red Sox would need to pay to close a trade of Castillo and one year of Clay Buchholz for a low-level Seattle prospect.

In an age of $20 million-a-year deals, the White Sox have no "awful contracts." The White Sox will owe James Shields only $22 million over the next two seasons if the righthander, as expected, does not opt out of his contract: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/chicago-white-sox/ Shields may have a less-than-desirable contract but the deal is by no means crippling for a club that had less than $70 million committed to the 2017 payroll before trading for Shields and $30 million in cash. The top White Sox salary this year was the $15.75 million to John Danks, who in May was released in the final year of his contract. With the many affordable contracts referenced, the big-market White Sox are in a great position to be major players in the free agent market this offseason. The second name cited, Adam Eaton, is a bargain after posting a 2016 fWAR of 6.0, more than any Red Sox not named Mookie. The reasons why Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier would be attractive trade targets for the Red Sox are the same reasons why the White Sox should build a contending team around them.

A team with Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Adam Eaton, Tim Anderson, Melky Cabrera, a healthy Brett Lawrie, Carlos Rodon, Nate Jones, Dan Jennings and Zach Duke is not far from competing after posting the same number of wins (78) this year that Red Sox posted last year.

Before the shortstop's steep second-half slide, FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron ranked Xander Bogaerts 20th in trade value among all players: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-trade-value-11-to-20/ However, the White Sox have a younger option in 23-year-old Tim Anderson, who posted 2.2 fWAR (2.8 bWAR) in 99 games this year while the 24-year-old Bogaerts posted 4.9 fWAR (3.7 bWAR) in 157 games. Anderson remains under team control for six seasons while Bogaerts remains under team control for only three increasingly expensive arbitration seasons. I doubt the White Sox will trade Chris Sale this offseason.

After the Red Sox lost two games on the road in the 2009 American League Divisional Series, starter Clay Buchholz pitched well in Game 3 at Fenway Park only to be let down by the bullpen as the Los Angeles Angels swept the series: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200910110.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2009_ALDS2.shtml I remember listening to Game 3 on my transistor radio as I walked the three miles home from church that Sunday.

That projected Game 7 of the American League Championship Series would be played at Fenway Park on Saturday, Oct. 23, when I am likely to be on a rare visit to Boston. If I could only afford a ticket.