harmony

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-luxury-tax-20161212-story.html

I suspect fWAR is not that simplistic. fWAR probably takes into account BABIP and HR/FB where in the first half last year David Price posted .321 and 15.2 while Steven Wright posted .271 and 6.5: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=30&season1=2016&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players= Somewhat unrelated, but here is an explanation of descriptive and predictive statistics: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-beginners-guide-to-understanding-descriptive-and-predictive-stats/#more-2807

That's a criticism of ERA and WHIP, not WAR, which is an accumulative statistic that rewards a pitcher for pitching more innings. WAR is not a be-all stat but it may be the best starting point in player valuation.

I posted the same comparisons to a Tampa Bay Ray website and got this response about the relative value of Clay Buchholz and Alex Cobb: http://www.draysbay.com/2016/12/12/13931508/mariners-show-interest-in-rays-starters

The worst car I ever owned was a 1983 Renault Alliance, which made Car & Driver magazine's Top 10 list that year: http://www.caranddriver.com/features/dishonorable-mention-the-10-most-embarrassing-award-winners-in-automotive-history That's saying a lot because I previously owned a Ford Pinto and a Chevy Chevette. I've done much better since.

After reading that Seattle is interested in Tampa Bay starters: ... I couldn't help drawing parallels between the potentially available pitchers for the Red Sox and the Rays. Clay Buchholz and Alex Cobb are inconsistent righthanders with only one year of team control. Steamer had projected 2017 WAR of 1.7* in 23 starts for Buchholz and 1.6 in 21 starts for Cobb but Buchholz is owed $13.5 million in 2017 while Cobb is projected to earn only $4 million. Drew Pomeranz and Drew Smyly are lefthanders with two years of team control. Steamer projects 2017 WAR of 2.3 in 147 innings over 34 appearances, including 24 starts, for Pomeranz and 2.5 in 164 innings over 28 starts for Smyly. Pomeranz is projected to earn $4.7 million and Smyly $6.9 million. It should be fascinating to see how the market shakes out. * Steamer revised the Buchholz projected WAR down to 0.5 in 37 innings following the Chris Sale trade but I use the original projected WAR of 1.7 for comparison purposes

It's sometimes difficult to distinguish between intentionally false news and mere negligently bad reporting. This piece includes the line: "Chris Buccholz also has a tem option for 2017." http://www.gamenguide.com/articles/88504/20161212/mlb-news-rumors-clay-buccholz-trading-block-teams-prefer-drew.htm The article also includes these quotes:

I generally admire the work of Over the Monster's Ben Buchanan but caution that this conclusion comes from a Red Sox-centric columnist. Buchanan's bias is neither better nor worse than the bias of the typical SB Nation columnist. Here is the account from Scott Gelman, an SB Nation columnist for the Miami Marlins: http://www.fishstripes.com/2016/12/12/13923278/marlins-discussed-clay-buchholz-trade-with-red-sox I have seen no report that the Marlins made an offer for Clay Buchholz. I have read one report that the Marlins declined a Red Sox offer of Clay Buchholz. I am not sure whom to believe in this age of false news. It should be interesting to see how the market plays out.

Over the Monster columnist Ben Buchanan today discussed the reported Red Sox demand in a contemplated trade of Clay Buchholz to the Miami Marlins: http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/12/12/13918280/red-sox-asked-marlins-for-a-prospect-in-trade-for-clay-buchholz The Marlins turned down the offer, according to the Miami Herald: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article120255323.html Scroll down.

I regret to report that an apparent administrator labeled me a troll at the Red Sox website Over the Monster. In a September 4 game thread, a poster had made fun of the last-place Athletics celebrating after a walk-off win against the Red Sox. "Lol celebration last place must be so good," the poster wrote: http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/9/4/12794362/game-136-red-sox-vs-athletics#comments I responded that the A's celebration was reminiscent of a celebration of a last-place team a year ago and provided a link to a video of a walk-off celebration by the 2015 Red Sox. In a post soon thereafter I wrote that "Last place teams need a reason to celebrate" and provided second link to a video of the 2015 Red Sox celebrating another walk-off win. My posts elicited this response from Over the Monster: At that point I decided that Over the Monster and I were not a good match. Over the Monster posts are often filled with profanity but void of substance. I like to think that my posts are quite the opposite. I have not acknowledged the warning and will not post there. Over the Monster is a great site for a poster who wants to swear profusely. I visit many baseball message boards, but excluding Mariner forums I spend more time on Red Sox boards than on all other forums combined. I have concentrated on the Red Sox just as a person studying a second language does not necessarily study all languages. I first came to a Red Sox forum in January 2006 when the Sox were rumored to be interested in Seattle outfielder Jeremy Reed as a replacement for the departed Johnny Damon. I wanted to compare how Red Sox fans and Mariners fans valued Reed ... and of course the valuations were much different. Through the process I gained a better idea of Reed's value. I know my ideas will be subjected to scrutiny when I post on a public forum. I am grateful to the many Red Sox fans who through the years have challenged my contributions in a civil manner ... and even those who have been less than civil. The discussions have made me more knowledgeable about the game I love. Peace be with everyone this holiday season.

Why does anyone study a second language? I visit many baseball message boards to learn more about the game I love.

So who was "stirring the pot" in this exchange?

A Seattle blogger took this away from his conversation Friday with Mariner GM Jerry Dipoto: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/12/10/13906272/dipotos-ll-christmas-gift

In 2016 Clay Buchholz avoided the disabled list for an entire season for the first time since 2009: http://m.mlb.com/player/453329/clay-buchholz Scroll down.

Especially if Clay Buchholz is hit by injury: https://e8k0luq9wg.execute-api.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/v1/articles/16486532/boston_red_sox_clay_buchholz_i.amp

Unless Clay Buchholz is the pitcher who goes down. It's happened.

We can agree that 14 Chris Hestons would not be a wise allocation of roster slots.

That's not the issue.

For Clay Buchholz, I've always used the early Steamer 2017 projection of 1.7 WAR in 23 starts, which is just under the average number of starts Buchholz has made over the past three years. It's the 1.7 fWAR that was valued this year at $13.5 million, giving Buchholz no surplus value with his 2017 salary of $13.5 million. Each team likely has its own proprietary means of projecting value, but Steamer is one widely cited and publicly available projection. Each front office could have a higher or lower projection for Buchholz.

That's the guy (and his 2016 ERA in five innings). Seattle continues to look for a veteran starting pitcher to push Chris Heston down from his current No. 6 slot on the starter depth chart. The Mariners hope to do better than Clay Buchholz but we'll see how the market plays out.

Interesting idea, but Clay Buchholz and his $13.5 million salary would need to have surplus value. With a Steamer's generous early projected 2017 WAR of 1.7 (since rescinded), valued this year at $13.5 million, Buchholz may not have surplus value.

Assuming the trade partner would pick up the entire 2017 salary of $13.5 million.

Mitch Moreland added $5.5 million to the Red Sox payroll while a trade of Clay Buchholz for Seth Smith would have cut the Red Sox payroll by $6.5 million (without taking up an added roster slot).

I suspect the Mariners and their fans are aiming higher than Clay Buchholz but in the end may be stuck with a Buchholz-caliber starter ... with hopes of a salary less than $13.5 million. Baseball columnist Jon Heyman reported that Seth Smith was nearly traded to the Red Sox before Mitch Moreland signed: Smith's $7 million salary would have helped offset Buchholz's $13.5 million salary if Buchholz was the trade target, as some have speculated. Seattle is trying to pare down its pool of platoon players as the Mariners pursue another starting pitcher. The search continues after the Winter Meetings where the Mariners picked up starter Chris Heston, like Buchholz a 6-foot-3, 190-pound righthander who pitched a no-hitter as a rookie. I question whether Buchholz is nearly $13 million better than Heston, who will earn the league minimum in 2017.

The one-year contracts for free agent starters Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Andrew Cashner suggest that Clay Buchholz would be hard-pressed to get a one-year, $13.5 million contract on the open market.