harmony

I have no reason to believe the Red Sox took anything less than the best offer for Clay Buchholz. The Sox mostly likely have been shopping Buchholz around in the past year.

I give Dave Dombrowski kudos for this trade. I questioned whether any trade partner would take on the entire $13.5 million owed Clay Buchholz.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/10/09/what-red-sox-kept-john-lackey-and-jon-lester/UFlbt7toI3HEZdPhpFeU0K/story.html No mention of a threat to forego playing for the Red Sox at minimum salary.

If Roenis Elias and his league-minimum salary have surplus value, perhaps a package with Clay Buchholz would make the latter's $13.5 million salary more palatable to a trade partner. Of course a trade partner would be required to devote two roster slots to Elias and Buchholz.

To elaborate, Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for starters and 65 innings for relievers, projected 2017 WAR of 1.5 in 200 innings for Roenis Elias and 0.1 in 65 innings for Fernando Abad: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

What are the trade values of two lefthanders who each posted a negative 0.2 fWAR for the Red Sox last season? http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 A trade partner would need to think either was worthy of a roster slot, including Fernando Abad at a projected salary of $2 million.

Visual updates on Pablo Sandoval: http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2016/12/pablo_sandoval_posts_instagram.html#incart_river_index

A tad off-topic, but former Red Sox reliever Brad Ziegler and the Miami Marlins have reportedly agreed to a two-year contract for $16 million plus incentives:

A signed free agent cannot be traded without his permission until mid-June of the next season.

To elaborate, the Red Sox may well be the current favorite to win the American League pennant next year: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3 [check out the right column] ... but it's crazy call the Red Sox the "prohibitive" favorites, as one columnist did: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/6/13856634/chris-sale-red-sox-american-league-favorites-rotation-lineup-moncada-kopech I'm not a betting person but I would easily take the field against Red Sox to win the AL title.

FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan was succinct in today's chat: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-121616/

As a side note of no relevance, lefthanders Drew Smyly and Drew Pomeranz faced each other in college: http://www.olemisssports.com/sports/m-basebl/recaps/050810aaa.html

It's probably safe to say most Red Sox fans did not think Drew Pomeranz was worth Anderson Espinoza at the time of the July 14 trade. If Pomeranz was not worth Baseball America's 15th-ranked midseason prospect, was the lefthander worth only Tyler O'Neill, whom BA ranked 45th at midseason? http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-100-prospects/#OdA0f2SxPS2v1vqS.97 And if Pomeranz's trade value has dropped since, might Tyler O'Neill perhaps be an overpay at this point? For what it's worth, MLB.com Prospect Watch now ranks Espinoza No. 13 and O'Neill No. 60 while John Sickels ranks Espinoza No. 30 and O'Neill No. 77: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016 http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/9/24/12932956/top-100-prospects-end-of-2016 This year O'Neill was the MVP of the Double A Southern League in his age 21 season while Espinoza had a rocky Single A year in his age 18 season: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/tyler-oneill-pulled-rare-feat-double/#Q0czcEhp6JGGGTSi.97 http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=espino005and I doubt the Red Sox will trade Pomeranz this offseason after swapping him for a highly touted prospect. At a Tampa Bay website several posters wrote that Tyler O'Neil would be a fair return for lefthander Drew Smyly, who like Drew Pomeranz comes with two years of team control. http://www.draysbay.com/2016/12/14/13959116/potential-jake-odorizzi-landing-spots Scroll toward bottom of comments. Of course, the Rays have a greater need for a righthand-hitting outfielder. FanGraphs Depth Charts project Smyly with a 2017 WAR of 2.5 and Pomeranz with a 2017 WAR of 2.3: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11760&position=P http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P I found that interesting because I suspect the Mariners would prefer Smyly to Pomeranz.

Does Drew Pomeranz have more or less trade value than he did when the lefthander was traded to the Red Sox two days after his appearance in the All Star Game? Keep in mind Pomeranz's exposed medicals, lackluster post-trade performance and diminished duration of team control. In the offseason prospective trade partners are not operating in a pennant race under the pressure of an approaching trade deadline.

Beyond the Box Score posted a positive take on the impact Chris Sale will have on the Red Sox rotation: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/12/15/13937042/boston-red-sox-chris-sale-rotation-preview

Working off Baseball America's midseason Top 100 list, if Drew Pomeranz last July was worth 15th-ranked prospect Anderson Espinoza, would the lefthander now be worth the 45th-ranked prospect, Seattle outfield prospect Tyler O'Neill, given Pomeranz's exposed medicals, lackluster post-trade performance and diminished duration of team control? The Mariners are in no position to weaken a rebuilding farm system, but I'm trying to get a handle on relative value. O'Neill might be a better fit for the less-contending Tampa Bay Rays, who could offer healthier lefthander Drew Smyly, who about matches Pomeranz in age, projected WAR and years of team control. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11426&position=P http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=11760&position=P

Not likely, according to this information a Seattle blogger attributed to Mariner GM Jerry Dipoto from a conversation last week: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2016/12/10/13906272/dipotos-ll-christmas-gift

From today's chat with MLB Trade Rumors columnist Jeffrey Todd: https://www.jotcast.com/chat?id=1776 I hope the Mariners shoot higher than Clay Buchholz.

For what it's worth, MLB Prospect Watch ranks Rafael Devers and Jason Groome at No. 16 and No. 31 (with Andrew Benintendi at No. 5) while the White Sox* have Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito at No. 1 and No. 3, the Braves have Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies at No. 4 and No. 12, and the Pirates have Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows at No. 8 and No. 9. Even the Yankees have Clint Frazier at No. 15, Gleyber Torres at No. 17 and Jorge Mateo at No. 18: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=prospects * the White Sox also have Michael Kopech at No. 30, Reynaldo Lopez at No. 38, Carson Fulmer at No. 58 and Zack Collins at No. 80

http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-luxury-tax-20161212-story.html

I suspect fWAR is not that simplistic. fWAR probably takes into account BABIP and HR/FB where in the first half last year David Price posted .321 and 15.2 while Steven Wright posted .271 and 6.5: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=30&season1=2016&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players= Somewhat unrelated, but here is an explanation of descriptive and predictive statistics: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-beginners-guide-to-understanding-descriptive-and-predictive-stats/#more-2807

That's a criticism of ERA and WHIP, not WAR, which is an accumulative statistic that rewards a pitcher for pitching more innings. WAR is not a be-all stat but it may be the best starting point in player valuation.

I posted the same comparisons to a Tampa Bay Ray website and got this response about the relative value of Clay Buchholz and Alex Cobb: http://www.draysbay.com/2016/12/12/13931508/mariners-show-interest-in-rays-starters

The worst car I ever owned was a 1983 Renault Alliance, which made Car & Driver magazine's Top 10 list that year: http://www.caranddriver.com/features/dishonorable-mention-the-10-most-embarrassing-award-winners-in-automotive-history That's saying a lot because I previously owned a Ford Pinto and a Chevy Chevette. I've done much better since.

After reading that Seattle is interested in Tampa Bay starters: ... I couldn't help drawing parallels between the potentially available pitchers for the Red Sox and the Rays. Clay Buchholz and Alex Cobb are inconsistent righthanders with only one year of team control. Steamer had projected 2017 WAR of 1.7* in 23 starts for Buchholz and 1.6 in 21 starts for Cobb but Buchholz is owed $13.5 million in 2017 while Cobb is projected to earn only $4 million. Drew Pomeranz and Drew Smyly are lefthanders with two years of team control. Steamer projects 2017 WAR of 2.3 in 147 innings over 34 appearances, including 24 starts, for Pomeranz and 2.5 in 164 innings over 28 starts for Smyly. Pomeranz is projected to earn $4.7 million and Smyly $6.9 million. It should be fascinating to see how the market shakes out. * Steamer revised the Buchholz projected WAR down to 0.5 in 37 innings following the Chris Sale trade but I use the original projected WAR of 1.7 for comparison purposes