harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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For a robust return in a trade. As a point of reference, Dustin Pedroia has posted 13.9 fWAR over the past four seasons while Dee Gordon has posted 12.4 fWAR over the same period. Pedroia, who is 4+ years older than Gordon, is owed $71 million over the next five years while Gordon has three years and about $39 million left on his contract.
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Dee Gordon has posted 12.4 fWAR, valued at $98.2 million, over the past four years despite playing only 79 games in his suspension-shortened 2016 season. Gordon led the National League in stolen bases in those three full seasons. In contrast, Jed Lowrie, who is four years older than Gordon, has posted 5.7 fWAR over the past four seasons.
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Dee Gordon has three years and about $39 million remaining on his contract after posting 3.3 fWAR, valued at $26.6 million, this year. The 2015 Gold Glove winner, who turns 30 in April, has posted an on-base percentage of .340 over the past three seasons. The Red Sox this year posted an on-base percentage of .329 after posting a .348 OBP in 2016,
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I suspect Eduardo Nuñez will be looking for a permanent gig. And many Red Sox fans may be placing too much weight on his brief 38-game stint with the Sox as the 30-year-old Nuñez recovers from his own knee injury.
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Pedroia reportedly to miss time in 2018: http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/10/dustin_pedroia_boston_red_sox_15.html#incart_river_index
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It's not limited to this board. MassLive columnist Jen McCaffrey suggests that the Twins and the Brewers, who this year made 26-win and 13-win improvements over 2016, trade some of their best players for Red Sox scraps: http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/10/boston_red_sox_potential_trade.html#incart_river_index
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Dustin Pedroia underwent knee surgery today, according to this tweet from Globe writer Pete Abraham: I stumbled upon this Pedroia report from 2006: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2006/05/pedroia-falling.html
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Outfielder Aaron Judge of the Yankees more than doubled the fWAR of any other rookie this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=2&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 ... while the Yankees' Jordan Montgomery and Chad Green topped all rookie pitchers in fWAR: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=2&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 What could possibly go wrong?
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To be precise, the 2017 Diamondbacks won 93 games. The 2016 Red Sox won 93 games coming off two straight last-place finishes but did not approach the 2017 season assuming the 93 wins in 2016 represented a fluke. For what it's worth, this year the Diamondback posted 43.0 fWAR while the Red Sox posted 41.7 fWAR. The D-backs lose only J.D. Martinez,. David Hernandez, Fernando Rodney, Jorge de la Rosa, Chris Iannetta and Tom Wilhelmsen to free agency. http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/mlb/diamondbacks/2017/10/13/arizona-diamondbacks-roster-contracts-arbitration-free-agency/761879001/
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Even with Zack Greinke's $34 million salary, the Diamondbacks have only $60 million in salary committed for 2018 with arbitration salaries awaiting A.J. Pollock, Patrick Corbin and others: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17aqI3EVO_C6fm3kVOYzqJMmaotL2ecszatykk5m7D9I/edit#gid=0
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The Diamondbacks are as likely to shop Paul Goldschmidt as the Red Sox are to shop Mookie Betts.
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I doubt the Arizona Diamondbacks, who won as many games as the Red Sox this year, are willing to part with their best hitter who remains under team control for two seasons at a bargain $25.5 million ($11 million in 2018 and $14.5 million in 2019).
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I understand the Red Sox desire to upgrade an offense that fell from first place in the American League in hitting fWAR at 35.0 in 2016 to seventh at 17.8 fWAR this year. Still the Red Sox pitching improved from fifth place in fWAR at 18.1 in 2016 to third place in fWAR at 23.9 this year. Will the Red Sox pitching staff be able to repeat (or improve on) its 2017 performance? Can Chris Sale and Craig Kimbrel maintain their torrid pace? Will David Price, Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright, Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg return effectively from injuries? Can Rick Porcello reclaim his Cy Young glory of 2016? Does Drew Pomeranz have another 3.0 fWAR season in him?
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The trade value of Eduardo Rodriguez is limited by his chronic knee problems that have resulted in a significant surgery this month. Matt Barnes is a mediocre 27-year-old reliever. Each comes with four years of team control. The White Sox, with only $15 million committed to 2018 salaries, are among many clubs that can afford Jose Abreu's projected 2018 salary of $17.9 million. With two years of team control, Abreu offers substantial surplus value after posting 4.1 fWAR, valued at $33.1 million, this year. In a trade of Abreu, I suspect the White Sox will receive far better offers than Rodriguez, Barnes and a prospect.
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Xander Bogaerts may well have diminished trade value after a somewhat disappointing season but the 25-year-old shortstop certainly has trade value after posting a combined 12.5 fWAR the past three years.
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J.D.Martinez may well be worth whatever 2018 salary he lands. The JDM sweepstakes may be decided by the team that gives Martinez the most years. Is this off-season of slim pickings, how many years are too many? Five years? Seven years?
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Joe Cronin was the 28-year-old player/manager of the Red Sox in 1935. Butch Hobson was younger than Alex Cora’s current age when Hobson took the Red Sox helm in 1992.
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Neither is a reasonable target for the Red Sox.
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Here is the SoxProspects write-up on 19-year-old outfielder Cole Brannen, who this year posted a .231/.383/.246/.630 line in 168 plate appearances in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League: http://www.soxprospects.com/players/brannen-cole.htm Brannon was 1.4 years younger than the average player in that league.
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6 Inning Starts + 6 Man Roration = Fewer Arm Problems
harmony replied to bosoxmal's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I suspect more than one factor has contribured to the increase in pitcher injuries. -
6 Inning Starts + 6 Man Roration = Fewer Arm Problems
harmony replied to bosoxmal's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Injuries may be an unintended consequence of the advent of the radar gun. -
Two years ago Boston Globe columnist Pete Abraham assessed the trade value of each Red Sox player: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/10/09/red-sox-have-plenty-chips-for-trade-market/cnKAEYDanfm1eiZajyAv0N/story.html
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6 Inning Starts + 6 Man Roration = Fewer Arm Problems
harmony replied to bosoxmal's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
It’s hard to calculate the number of career-ending injuries in the days of 300-inning seasons. Perhaps some pitchers blew out their arms after consecutive seasons of 300+ innings at the minor league level. The 300-inning pitcher at the MLB level could have been the product of survival of the fittest, not necessarily survival of the most gifted, -
The White Sox apparently weren’t interested enough in Blake Swihart to make an offer the Red Sox found sufficient.
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I don’t doubt that a GM “bit” by making a viable offer that the Red Sox declined.