harmony

I doubt the Marlins will trade Giancarlo Stanton for the Red Sox spare parts. I question the current trade value of 19-year-old Jason Groome because he is along way from being MLB-ready. Compare the Single A Greenville lines of Groome and Henry Owens, another 6-foot-6, 220-pound lefthander who, like Groome, was ranked among baseball's Top 50 prospects: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=groome000jas https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=owens-002hen Owens, who skipped Low A Lowell, pitched at Greenville when he was a year older than Groome was at that level.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, two-time All Star second baseman Jason Kipnis of the Cleveland Guardians may be available but the 30-year-old has dealt with his own injury issues: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/poll-what-will-the-Guardians-do-with-jason-kipnis.html Kipnis has two years and $30.5 million remaining on his contract.

Then don't assume Edinson Volquez and Brad Ziegler will have the same value they had last year. Red Sox fans often point to 2016 as Hanley Ramirez's productive season but Ramirez's value never has exceeded his $22 million annual salary after posting fWAR valued at a negative $13.9 million, $21.5 million and a negative $3.3 million the last three years: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8001&position=SS#value Even with the positive fWAR in 2016, over the past three years Ramirez has ranked 223rd of 232 qualified hitters in fWAR, keeping company with the likes of Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp, Jayson Werth and Prince Fielder: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&page=8_30

The only way the Red Sox could trade Hanley Ramirez would be to package him with a player or players with surplus value. A trade for an equally bad contract (if the Sox could find one) would negate the payroll savings. A Seattle blogger* has suggested a trade of Rusney Castillo and Jackie Bradley Jr. for solid Mariner reliever Nick Vincent but the trade of Castillo's contract would have no luxury tax implications because Castillo is not on the 40-man roster. To provide the Sox luxury tax relief, I would suggest Hanley Ramirez, three years of Jackie Bradley Jr. and six years of potential Rule 5 casualty Brian Johnson for Vincent, who posted 1.8 fWAR this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7555&position=P * https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/10/25/16487712/mariners-red-sox-potential-trade-2018-bullpen-outfield

Brad Ziegler, whose fWAR was valued at $3.8 million this year, is owed $9 million in 2018. Edinson Volquez, whose fWAR was valued at $7.7 million this year, is owed $13 million in 2018. Hanley Ramirez, whose fWAR was valued at a negative $3.3 million this year, is owed $22 million 2018 (with the threat of the $22 million option vesting for 2019). The theoretical $11.5 million in combined negative value does not cancel out the $25.3 million in negative value.

This perplexed Mariner fan does not see Seattle as a likely destination for Giancarlo Stanton. The Mariners have some money to spend with only $92.6 million committed to 2018 after a 2017 payroll of about $155 million: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FPmVBnzTPHvWfnpemP2Dt_CRyg7Mf12wW62BpgNjxIY/edit#gid=0 However, the core of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Jean Segura, Mike Zunino, James Paxton and Felix Hernandez is not particularly young as they enter their age 35, 37, 30, 28, 27, 29 and 32 seasons. Seattle lacks an ace as an aging Hernandez has lost that status and injuries have slowed James Paxton's ascent to that status. Over the past two seasons the Mariner hitters have ranked second in the American League with a wRC+ of 105: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=16,d Meanwhile, Seattle pitchers ranked 12th in the league in fWAR this year: http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18478-Stanton-or-Votto/page11 ... and 11th in ERA+ at 96: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2017-standard-pitching.shtml According to MLB Prospect Watch, Seattle has only one prospect in the Top 100, outfielder Kyle Lewis at No. 41: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects The Mariners are more likely to pursue Shohei Ohtani than Giancarlo Stanton.

The full list: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d&page=1_30

Seattle has three years and about $38 million in remaining obligations to nearly 30-year-old righthander Mike Leake, who this year posted 3.1 fWAR, valued at $24.6 million, including 1.3 fWAR, valued at $10.1 million, in only five starts for the Mariners: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10130&position=P That's a modest contract for a solid mid-rotation starter. Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager is entrenched with four years and $73.5 million (plus bonuses) remaining on his contract after posting 24.9 fWAR, valued at $197.2 million, over the last six seasons. Seattle designated hitter Nelson Cruz has one year and $14 million remaining on his contract after posting 12.8 fWAR, valued at $102.4 million, in his first three years with the Mariners.

The Mariners have no big contract on a player who has posted 0.6 fWAR over the past three seasons (including two years of negative fWAR). The big Seattle contracts are Robinson Cano’s (six years and $144 million) and Felix Hernandez’s (two years and $53 million). Only the latter is under water. I seriously doubt the Mariners would trade Cano straight up for the five years and $157 million remaining on the David Price contract.

Good luck with that.

No one wants the Hanley Ramirez contract. That's why the Red Sox would need to package Ramirez with a player or players who have surplus value. It's a simple concept. I suspect a team would trade two years of a non-closing reliever for Hanley Ramirez and Mookie Betts.

Dumping Hanley Ramirez, who has significant negative trade value, would require that the Red Sox package a player with surplus value (or that the Red Sox take back an equally bad contract, negating the salary savings).

Would anyone here trade Jackie Bradley Jr., Hanley Ramirez and $5 million to Seattle for reliever Nick Vincent? Bradley remains under team control for three seasons with a projected 2018 arbitration salary of $5.9 million. Ramirez is owed $22 million in 2018 with a 2019 option for $22 million that vests with 497 plate appearances and a passed physical. Vincent remains under team control for two seasons with a projected 2018 arbitration salary of $2.7 million. The Red Sox would save about $20 million off the 2018 budget, freeing up funds to pursue free agents J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer. Ramirez would be reunited with Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Jean Segura, his Dominican Republic teammates in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. The Mariners would take the huge risk that Ramirez can play first base. I have no shortage of bad ideas.

Unless Rusney Castillo is traded in a package with a player who has enough surplus value that the trade partner will pay Castillo's entire salary. But the Red Sox might not have an incentive to surrender surplus value because Castillo's salary does not count against the luxury tax.

Carson Smith could not hold down the closer's role in Seattle before his injury but perhaps the righthander can in Boston.

I suspect Seattle would prefer to re-sign Cuban outfielder Leonys Martin after his likely non-tender by the Cubs to trading for the costly contract of Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo, who is older than Martin. But the inclusion of Jackie Bradley Jr. in a Castillo trade could tip the scales. To borrow another cliché, I admire Lookout Landing columnist Kate Preusser for thinking outside the box. She does fine work.

Let's turn the tables for these clubs that won 97 and 93 games this year en route to their respective East divisional titles. With Dustin Pedroia's knee surgery, let's assume the Red Sox are desperate for a second baseman. Compare the merits of these trade proposals: 1. One year of Craig Kimbrel for five years of Trea Turner, six years of Victor Robles and six years of Erick Fedde. 2. One year of Daniel Murphy for five years of Andrew Benintendi, six years of Rafael Devers and six years of Trey Ball. The 29-year-old Kimbrel, who is owed $13 million in the final year of his contract, has posted 6.0 fWAR over the past three seasons, including 3.3 fWAR this year. The 32-year-old Murphy, who is owed $17.5 million in the final year of his contract, has posted 12.3 fWAR over the past three seasons, including 4.3 fWAR this year. The 23-year-old Benintendi has posted 2.8 fWAR in 185 MLB games while the 24-year-old Turner has posted 6.4 fWAR in 198 MLB games. Turner ranked seventh on the FanGraphs midseason trade value list while Benintendi was unranked. Devers, who just turned 22 years old, was ranked sixth in Baseball America's midseason prospect rankings while Robles, who is seven months younger than Devers, ranked eighth: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#8LDbyHs9tRqA2cR2.97 The 23-year-old Ball was selected out of high school in the first round of the 2013 draft while the 24-year-old Fedde was taken out of college in the first round of the 2014 draft. Fedde ranked 70th on BA's midseason prospect list while Trey Ball went unranked. So, would the Red Sox trade five years of Andrew Benintendi, six years of Rafael Devers and six years of Trey Ball for one year of Daniel Murphy? That trade would be less lopsided than the proposed five years of Trea Turner, six years of Victor Robles and six years of Erick Fedde for one year of Craig Kimbrel. But neither proposal is realistic.

Perhaps you undervalue a Gold Glove-winning second baseman who has stolen 212 bases over the past four seasons while maintaining an above-average on-base percentage (an OBP six points higher than the Red Sox OBP over the the same period). Given his modest contract, 29-year-old Dee Gordon has significant surplus value. Then again, perhaps three years of Dee Gordon at $39 million has no more trade value than two years of Xander Bogaerts with a projected 2018 arbitration salary of $7.6 million. Gordon has posted 12.5 fWAR in 530 games over the past four seasons while Bogaerts, who lacks Gordon's glove, has posted 12.7 fWAR in 605 games over the same period.

Perhaps one year of Craig Kimbrel straight up for six years of righthander Erick Fedde, a Top 100 prospect who was the Nats' first-round draft pick in 2014. No way would Washington part with shortstop Trea Turner, whom FanGraphs ranked seventh in trade value among all baseball players: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-1-to-10/ Likewise, the Nationals would not trade 20-year-old Victor Robles, the second-ranked prospect in all of baseball: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects Three years of Kimbrel cost the Red Sox only the 25th- and 76th-ranked prospects (Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra) and change: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015/

For a robust return in a trade. As a point of reference, Dustin Pedroia has posted 13.9 fWAR over the past four seasons while Dee Gordon has posted 12.4 fWAR over the same period. Pedroia, who is 4+ years older than Gordon, is owed $71 million over the next five years while Gordon has three years and about $39 million left on his contract.

Dee Gordon has posted 12.4 fWAR, valued at $98.2 million, over the past four years despite playing only 79 games in his suspension-shortened 2016 season. Gordon led the National League in stolen bases in those three full seasons. In contrast, Jed Lowrie, who is four years older than Gordon, has posted 5.7 fWAR over the past four seasons.

Dee Gordon has three years and about $39 million remaining on his contract after posting 3.3 fWAR, valued at $26.6 million, this year. The 2015 Gold Glove winner, who turns 30 in April, has posted an on-base percentage of .340 over the past three seasons. The Red Sox this year posted an on-base percentage of .329 after posting a .348 OBP in 2016,

I suspect Eduardo Nuñez will be looking for a permanent gig. And many Red Sox fans may be placing too much weight on his brief 38-game stint with the Sox as the 30-year-old Nuñez recovers from his own knee injury.

Pedroia reportedly to miss time in 2018: http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/10/dustin_pedroia_boston_red_sox_15.html#incart_river_index

It's not limited to this board. MassLive columnist Jen McCaffrey suggests that the Twins and the Brewers, who this year made 26-win and 13-win improvements over 2016, trade some of their best players for Red Sox scraps: http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/10/boston_red_sox_potential_trade.html#incart_river_index