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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo are projected to earn a combined $18.6 milion in 2026 when Luis Castillo is set to earn $24.15 million. Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans provide depth while Kade Anderson and Jurrangelo Cijntje wait in the wings.
  2. harmony
    Seattle right-hander Logan Gilbert was a common target in proposed Jarren Duran trades late last year: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?page=1&q=jarren+duran&posted=2024
  3. harmony
    After his trade to Seattle, Josh Naylor was spectacularly fun to watch on the Mariners' march to the AL West title and the postseason run that fell one game short of the World Series. But it was a small sample. BTW Ty France won a Gold Glove this year.😉
  4. harmony
    This Seattle fan isn't thrilled with the Josh Naylor signing but quickly settled into the acceptance stage. In Jerry Dipoto's 10 years in Seattle, the Mariners had never guaranteed more than $24 million to a free agent hitter.
  5. harmony
    According to Spotrac, this year the Red Sox ranked 10th in payroll: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/year/2025 The Red Sox ranked 18th in 2024: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/_/year/2024 ,,, and have not ranked in the Top 4 since 2019.
  6. harmony
    This poster saw Kris Bubic pitch once this year: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/royals-vs-giants/2025/05/19/777855/final/box
  7. harmony
    At one point Baseball Trade Values assigned Bobby Witt Jr. a surplus value of $200.7 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/player-value-timelines/bobby-witt-jr/5930
  8. harmony
    FanGraphs makes a reasonable projection of 39 home runs for Cal Raleigh in 2026. FanGraphs projects Dominic Canzone and Luke Raley with 21 and 20 home runs in 2026. I'd take the under on one of those projections but I just don't know which one.😉 Steamer has Canzone and Raley with 17 and 16 home runs in 2026: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=bat&pos=all&team=11&players=0&lg=all&z=1763178096&sortcol=4&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard
  9. harmony
    Those who understand probability tend to exploit those who don’t.
  10. harmony
    Projections tend to regress toward the mean not to “underproject” across the board.
  11. harmony
    So more than Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony combined (in 513 fewer plate appearances)?☹️
  12. harmony
    FWIW FanGraphs projects Marcelo Mayer with 15 home runs next year in 532 plate appearances: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/marcelo-mayer/29668/stats?position=3B ... and Roman Anthony with 18 home runs in 623 plate appearances: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/roman-anthony/31812/stats?position=OF
  13. harmony
    Just Baseball podcast discusses proposed trade of Jarren Duran and Peyton Tolle for Ketel Marte:
  14. harmony
    ??? https://talksox.com/forums/topic/90239-red-sox-2025-season-reviewoffseason-preview-thread/page/25/#comment-3045050
  15. harmony
    That was last offseason when Luis Castillo had a no-trade clause that will expire this upcoming January 1. One Seattle offseason plan, shared to this forum on Sunday, included a trade of Castillo. https://talksox.com/forums/topic/90239-red-sox-2025-season-reviewoffseason-preview-thread/page/37/#comment-3047844
  16. harmony
    What if Seattle offered right-hander Luis Castillo for Triston Casas?😀😀😀 This year Castillo posted 2.6 fWAR over 180.2 innings while Casas posted a negative 0.6 fWAR in 29 games.
  17. harmony
    FWIW Baseball Trade Values apparently has upped Triston Casas' surplus value from 0 to $13.5 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=triston+casas&page=1
  18. harmony
    The 2026 ZiPS projections for Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto: MM 515 PA, 26 HR, .363 OBP, .454 SLG, 126 wRC+, 3.4 WAR KO 494 PA, 20 HR, .340 OBP, .451 SLG, 117 wRC+, 2.4 WAR https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-top-50-mlb-free-agents/ Scroll down to Nos. 12 and 21. Is Murakami worth the projected difference in contract length and AAV?
  19. harmony
    The Red Sox and Seattle Mariners likely have backup plans at third base in Marcelo Mayer and Ben Williamson. FanGraphs projects Mayer with 1.8 WAR in 128 games next year and Williamson with 1.8 WAR in 130 games. Their MLB debuts this year, Mayer posted 0.4 fWAR (0.2 bWAR) in 44 games and Williamson 0.4 fWAR (1.3 bWAR) in 85 games. Mayer is two years younger than Williamson.
  20. harmony
    The Red Sox and Seattle Mariners have similar infield needs with a veteran returning shortstop surrounded by questions marks at the other positions. Tampa Bay could offer solutions with Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe, especially if the Rays don't think they can compete in the stacked AL East next season. The issue might be what team could offer the Rays the best prospect package (and whether the Rays would trade within the division). In his offseason plan, an astute 😀 Seattle fan proposed that the Mariners trade from their deep farm system for Diaz, Lowe, Ryan Pepiot (sub Drew Rasmussen) and Erwin Uceta. https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=10519 Should the Red Sox pursue a similar package?
  21. harmony
    Did the 2025 Red Sox fall short of expectations? The Sox won 89 games after FanGraphs projected the Sox with 84.5 wins. Boston fans should appreciate the postseason berth and the first winning Red Sox season since 2021.
  22. harmony
    This Mariner fan drives past Jesuit several times a week but sent his high-achieving children to public schools that resented the privileged students at Jesuit.
  23. harmony
    Jesuit High School in Portland/Beaverton, Oregon, produced NBA head coaches Erik Spoelstra (Miami) and David Adelman (Denver) as well as Golden State general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr.
  24. harmony
    https://talksox.com/forums/topic/90248-the-2025-postseason-post-red-sox/page/14/#comments
  25. harmony
    Another analysis of the pending free agency of Eugenio Suarez: https://www.mariners-consigliere.com/p/what-about-geno?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1203224&post_id=177678766&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=2z8agc&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
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