harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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This year this poster has seen the Red Sox more often (twice) than his Seattle Mariners. However, I'll likely miss the Red Sox in 2026 because I'll be in Europe when the Sox visit Seattle in June.
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The 2026 Red Sox Foundation & One Possible Plan
harmony replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
FWIW 29-year-old Kody Clemens has a career OPS+ of 79 and 0.5 bWAR in 237 career games, including an OPS+ of 93 and 0.5 bWAR in 91 games this season: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemeko01.shtml Clemens is likely to be Super Two arbitration eligible this offseason. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
harmony replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
James Paxton finished second in innings pitched on the 2017 Seattle Mariners, trailing only the immortal ... Ariel Miranda! https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2017&season=2017&qual=0&team=11&sortcol=7&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 -
Thank you for the cherry-picked stat. Baseball Reference provides a fuller picture under Clutch Stats and Leverage: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=duranja01&year=2025&t=b Scroll down.
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FWIW Jarren Duran apparently can curse in the clutch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAetR1FjSKI
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
harmony replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The Mariners are clinging to the final Wild Card slot after going 2-7 on a tough, tough road trip to play the Orioles, Mets and Phillies. The remaining schedule might favor the Mariners: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds -
Yophery Rodriguez, John Holobetz or Marcus Phillips could be the Auntie Gertie who beat the odds. But the probabilities are stacked against them ... even in the aggregate. Lost in this conversation are Quinn Priester's potential future WAR. Even before his breakout this year, ZiPS had projected Priester with 1.4, 1.5 and 1.5 WAR in fewer than 120 innings each in 2025, 2026 and 2027. Priester, who has tosssed 124 innings this year, remains under team control for four more seasons. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/quinn-priester/25977/stats?position=P#zips-3-year-projections
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https://www.twinkietown.com/2021/3/10/22314722/mlb-minnesota-twins-historical-context-top-100-prospect-future-value-kiriloff-lewis-larnach-jeffers Those who understand probability tend to exploit those who don't. The casino owner won't sell its business because Auntie Gertie won $113,000 on its slot machines.
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What is the source of the 17 and 16 percent chances? The 18 percent chance for a No. 33 draft pick is for a positive career bWAR, not a single-season bWAR. SoxProspects currently ranks Yophery Rodriguez and John Holobetz outside the Top 30 in a Boston farm system that has lost its luster. Their chances of posting a 1.0 WAR season are far, far lower than 17 and 16 percent. You can't win the lottery without buying a ticket ... but they're still lottery tickets.
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Marcus Phillips was the No. 33 draft pick after being projected at No. 61 by MLB Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/news/2025-mlb-draft-day-1-complete-coverage Of the 61 No, 33 draft picks since 1965, only 11 (18%) posted a positive career bWAR: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/index.fcgi?overall_pick=33&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick&from_type_hs=0&from_type_unk=0&from_type_jc=0&from_type_4y=0 Fourteen posted a negative career bWAR, two posted 0.0 bWAR, and 34 (55.7%) had not made it to the majors (including Phillips and three others drafted since 2019), We all hope Marcus Phillips has a productive MLB career but the odds are stacked heavily against him.
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1.0 WAR is a high bar for prospects ranked far outside the Top 100 in baseball. https://www.twinkietown.com/2021/3/10/22314722/mlb-minnesota-twins-historical-context-top-100-prospect-future-value-kiriloff-lewis-larnach-jeffers Three lottery tickets have a higher aggregate chance than a single lottery ticket ... but they're still lottery tickets.
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What percentage of Red Sox prospects ranked 30 or below have ever played an MLB inning? What percentage of those ranked below the Top 10? The numbers are low despite an occasional outlier.
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What are the odds that Yophery Rodriguez, John Holobetz or Marcus Phillips ever plays an inning at the Major League level? What are the chances that any match the production of Quinn Priester's 2025 season? SoxProspects currently ranks the trio 34th, 31st and 14th in a Boston farm system that has fallen out of the Top 10 at MLB Pipeline: https://soxprospects.com/ https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2025-midseason The Milwaukee Brewers are unlikely to regret the trade .... ever.
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Nathaniel Lowe can refuse an assignment to the minors after exceeding the five years of MLB service earlier this season. The Baseball Reference number was as of January 2025. The Nats will likely place Lowe on waivers and a team that selects Lowe off waivers will be responsible for the remainder of Lowe’s 2025 salary. If he clears waivers Lowe becomes a free agent who can sign for the prorated league minimum (with the Nationals on the hook for the balance of his 2025 salary).
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FWIW ZiPS projects Abraham Toro with a 91 wRC+ and 0.1 WAR in 26 games the rest of the season while projecting Nathaniel Lowe with a 106 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR in 39 games. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/abraham-toro/19844/stats?position=2B/3B#dashboard https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nathaniel-lowe/19566/stats?position=1B#dashboard
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The Seattle Mariners have experienced a revolving door at second base as well. Over that 2018-2025 period, Dee Strange-Gordon with 778 plate appearances was the only Mariner second baseman with more than 550 plate appearances: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&ind=0&team=11&season1=2018&season=2025&type=8&month=37&sortcol=3&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 Strange-Gordon's wRC+ of 77 and 0.8 fWAR were not assets. The Mariners hope to have a long-term solution at second base in barely 22-year-old Cole Young, a graduated Top 50 prospect and former first-round draft pick whose 1.2 bWAR in 54 games this year works out to a pace of 3.5 bWAR over 162 games.
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Since Robinson Cano had 646 plate appearances for the Mariners in 2017, the most plate appearances by a Seattle second baseman in a single season came from Adam Frazier with 460 in 2022 (and Dee Strange-Gordon with 410 in 2019).
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Before tossing four innings Monday, Garrett Crochet had already reached a career high of 148.1 innings in a single season.
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Go Red Sox! Get within a half game of the idle Mariners in the Wild Card race (although with a Boston win Seattle would move into a tie for the AL West lead).
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The article transposes the stats for Carlos Narvaez and Connor Wong since the All Star Break. Narvaez had the unusual negative 2 wRC+.
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-math-behind-the-extra-innings-home-field-disadvantage/
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The Red Sox need the defense of Carlos Narvaez but the rookie catcher has posted a negative 2 wRC+ in 12 games (48 plate appearances) since the All Star break. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&type=8&season=2025&season1=2025&ind=0&stats=bat&qual=0&month=1000&team=3&pos=c&startdate=2025-07-16&enddate=2025-10-01 wRC+ is scaled to an average of 100; a negative wRC+ is rare.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
harmony replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We all have the privilege of assigning appropriate weight to the projections of an established system and to the bald opinions of an anonymous dude on the internet.😃 -
Would David Hamilton's current negative 0.4 fWAR been an upgrade for Seattle? The Mariners entered the 2025 with Keith Law's top-ranked farm system that was filled with middle infielders, including Cole Young, who in his first 50 MLB games has prodcued at a 3.2 bWAR pace over 162 games. The M's had no shortage of "fulltime 2b" candidates.
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Entering the season Seattle handed second base to Ryan Bliss, who suffered a season-ending injury on April 8. Bliss was to keep the seat warm for second baseman Cole Young, who since his May 31 call-up has posted 1,.0 bWAR (a 3.2 bWAR pace over 162 games). Young, who just turned 22 years old, has produced what the Red Sox had hoped for from Marcelo Mayer, a fellow former first-round draft pick who is seven months older than Young.
