Yes, he has to have a good year. His age works for him, until you remember he didn’t reach free agency the first time through normal channels; he was NON-TENDERED by the Dodgers, and for good reason. And if he has another year of sub-.700 OPS, that will make it three times in a 4 year stretch. At that point, 2023 looks like an outlier. In that case, he doesn’t opt out. Especially when you notice his good season in 2023 was built on being bottom 25% in exit velocity and barrel percentage, and bottom 10% in hard hit percentage. Bellinger was behind Connor Wong in all these categories. He’s far from mashing, and most seasons it does cost him. 2023 was the one season it didn’t.
There is a reason he’s not even coming close to getting what he wants and settled for another pillow contract…