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And all I want to know is why this one statistic is so important it’s worth repeating endlessly…

No one is saying Montgomery is anything close to great. All anyone has said about him is that he is a better pitcher than his mediocre W-L record would indicate. And he will probably capitalize to the tune of a 5 year $125mill contract. Or something in that neighborhood. Is it an overpay, even by MLB standards? Probably. Will he represent an upgrade for the Sox rotation? Definitely. But if the Sox passed on him because the organization felt he was not likely to be worth his price tag, I wouldn’t be surprised. Or disappointed…

Bass player in Phish…

Dombrowski clearly looks past pitcher W-L record. Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker (54-50, career high of 12 wins) are good examples of that…

deGrom and Taijuan Walker last year…

Actually, you should have. It lends some credence to Wins, at least, over long periods of time and makes a statement about the longevity of pitchers. I would not say it leads to validating every W-L record every year, but it does more to validate it as a career accomplishment...

I stand corrected on this. The top 5 names among active pitchers are Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, Kershaw, and Wainwright. They are also the top 5 in fWAR and K, among active pitchers. Of course, they are also the top 5 among IP as well...

I actually don't think so. I think merely listing the top five active pitchers in career wins and top ten in ERA is not a good metric without a solid minimum IP. But even if you look at top ten in K or fWAR, are even they the same names?

I go as far as I can without invading anyone's privacy Actually I just look at stats and acknowledge the influence of all the human stuff. I sometimes mention it once it becomes common knowledge (like Montgomery's wife doing residency in Boston). That's the kind of thing I cite and quote, but would never go research on my own...

That's the point. So many things go into it, and many of them have nothing to do with the starting pitcher. I mean, if one starter gets more runs, as you note, it does help his W-L record, but what does that say about him as a pitcher?

But does Wacha get the same, or better results? Montgomery did make 32 start and pitch 188 innings with a 3.20 ERA. He gave the Rangers and Cardinals 20 quality starts in his 32 outings. Wacha started 24 games with a 3.22 ERA. His 134 IP was his most since 2017 (not impressive). He did give SD 10 quality starts, but that is only 2 more than Montgomery gave Texas alone (in 11 outings!!). And less than he game last place St. Louis.

I agree, but the one stat where it is remarkably easy to find better pitchers with worse stats seems to be W-L record. I still find it absolutely crazy that John Lackey had a more wins and a better W-L record during his 4 months pitching for a last place Red Sox team in 2014 (in which he went 11-7) that he did pitching a full season for a World Series Champion in 2013 (where he went 10-13). It's only one example, but it uses the same pitcher (so - similar talent?), and factors in overall team ability and length of time playing.. Even if you added losses to Lackey's record until you had the same amount of decisions in both years, he STILL has a better record for the last place team....

I'm all for multiple directions. And I'm not accusing anyone of looking solely at W-L. But in my opinion, the stat doesn't tell me much. And this is something that current baseball bullpen strategies have marginalized even more. It has reached the point that if the game is decided by anything that happens after the 6th inning, the starter is getting a no decision. And sometimes even earlier. And no one likes the "opener" strategy. But it does exist, and has some solid logic behind it when it is done properly. But it also completely messes up two statistics - wins and blown saves. You basically have a strategy when the starter is ineligible for the win, and the relievers can get blown saves as early as the second inning. (I have yet to see one that early, but it is possible. But I did see Ryan Brasier get credited with a blown save in the 5th inning of a game last year.)

I was speaking specifically of Montgomery never going 9 innings in a no decision...

I get the logic, and I probably take one year of the 2017 Sale over 10 years of Grissom. I just have my doubts that Sale is that pitcher any more, and also that he is going to get much better over the rest of his career. Corey Kluber had an impressive career at one point as well, and in fact his career at Sale's age stacks up pretty well with Sale's on some metrics. Granted, he is 3 years older, but also didn't develop his significant injury history until he was about Sale's current age, where as Sale has has issues for the past 5 years. Of course, I assume Atlanta probably did some sort of physical before they extended him, but I can see plenty of reasons to be cautious with the 2024 version of Chris Sale...

No. And by looking at fastball velocity, you less of an Old Schooler than you realize. All I want to know is - what value does W-L bring to the table? Good W-L with a low ERA is obvious. No one dislikes that, except opposing hitters. But what about good W-L with a bad ERA? Or bad W-L with a good ERA?

That stuff didn’t come along for another half century or so…

The 3.89 ERA is over 9 innings, which he probably never pitched in a No Decision. (Maybe once or twice?) That means Montgomery averaged 2.1 ER in those 5.1 IP. Had he actually averaged giving up 3.89 ER per those 5.1 IP, his ERA would be 7.00…

There was a time when that’s all they had. And the inability to really tell how good a RP was using nothing but W-L led to the creation of ERA…

No, I’m not doing the same thing. I’m providing evidence and examples. And quit pretending old schoolers aren’t countering. The repeated counter argument just never changed. It was always “but he’s never won more than 10 games.” Go back through the thread and see how many times that was used as sole support. Really it looked more like the Old School point was never to support their side as much as it was to make sure they got the last word…

Nobody has ever said that your opinion is W-L record is the only thing that matters. That defense you keep repeatedly using is a Strawman Argument. The contrary opinion to yours is much simpler - that it really doesn’t matter. Numerous examples supporting this position have been cited. Numerous explanations why have been provided. And no counter argument has ever come back beyond blanket statements and accusations of stubbornness. And everyone gets BTV is a useless little toy. Of course, the critics of the site always fail to mention the incredibly obvious reason why - that it’s used by fans and not the executives who make trades. Does it provide realistic trades? Its history indicates that it does. But that means very little as it can be countered by questionable executives working for MLB teams. It’s one true purpose is shedding some light on all the insane trade proposals fans made before that sight that often boiled down to “let’s trade our garbage for All Stars” and occasionally questioning why the GM just would not do so…

You clearly don’t get it. You’re posting from a position of “I have my opinion and anyone who disagrees is being stubborn.”

Greg Maddox was another with post season struggles. Heck the 2014 Tigers trotted out Scherzer-Price-Verlander in three consecutive games against the Orioles in the ALDS and lost all three. Everyone always labeled these guys as chokers, but I always noticed they do worse in the postseason when they have higher IP during the regular season.

Is this really a matter of opinion? Statheads have said “W-L doesn’t matter” and provided lots of examples and data. Old Schoolers have said “W-L does matter” and then blatantly refused to support that position. You can claim all you want about their right to their opinion, but that doesn’t make the statistic more relevant. It just means they like it more. Of course dgalehouse did in one post overtly say that W-L matters. He has said it is statistically relevant. All anyone wants is some reason why. And while you REPEATEDLY call out people who question his viewpoint, you’ve never once called him out for overriding anyone else’s…

Also he’s an *******. But he does openly and brashly admit as much