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Pitcher W-L record has been devalued by the prominence in the bullpen in the game today. Starters rarely go beyond 6 innings anymore, and far too many games are decided beyond that point. Using pitcher wins is almost like evaluating hitters not only solely on batting average, but rather solely on batting average in the first 3 innings...

The argument is about the importance of W-L record. Bellhorn calls it the spread. Or you can look at winning pct. Either way, it is a weak assessment of pitcher ability...

17 in each 2021 and 2022. Montgomery himself was credited with 15 wins in that timeframe. His teams went 34-28 in his starts...

Let's look at John Lackey 2010: 14-11 4.40 ERA 2011: 12-12 6.41 ERA 2012: Injured 2013: 10-13 3.52 ERA 2014: 11-7 3.60 ERA (Boston only) The year Lackey was so important to that World Series championship was also the year he won the fewest games for Boston...

First of all, I assume whoever would be there in lieu of Montgomery would not be worth 0.0 fWAR. I certainly hope not. Even Houck was worth 1.2 fWAR in 21 starts. But also I think Bello and Crawford can both improve on their performance from last year. I could see at least 80 wins without Montgomery.

Since the creation of the central divisions, only 4 teams have finished last with 78 wins or more. The Red Sox have done it 3 times. So, yes, they are not horrible. But if you are going to play in a tough division like the AL East currently is, then you do need to step it up if you want to be competitive. You simply cannot wait for the rest of the division to come down and meet you and limbo under your .500-ish performance...

As there are not many guesses. A. Hall of Famer Jim Kaat B. Jamie Moyer C. Hall of Famer Jack Morris D. Hall of Famer Red Ruffing E. Hall of Famer Vic Wilis F. Hall of Famer Red Faber. Moyer again, but pitchers like Pettitte, Tommy John, or Curt Schilling have a groundswell of support for being egregious omissions from Cooperstown. No one has ever even tried to make a case for Moyer in Cooperstown, despite his being 35th all time in wins…

288 wins 231 losses (.555)

If the Sox sign Montgomery, I’m going 85+. Granted injuries could derail that, and do so significantly…

C is Hall of Famer Jack Morris. Best record percentage wise in the list, but no easy path to Cooperstown when pen hit ballot…

I’ve been saying that for years. My parents told me when I was a little baby, my first sentence was “no one knows what an ace is.” They agreed by blowing in my belly button, which was acceptable to me at that time in my life…

You can just pick the letter. Pettitte is not among those 6 pitchers…

Which W-L record is for a pitcher NOT in Cooperstown? A. 288-237 (.544) B. 269-209 (.563) C. 254-186 (.577) D. 273-225 (.548) E. 249-205 (.548) F. 254-213 (.544)

You’re already at 80? Even before Montgomery? Welcome to Optimism!

Extending Betts should have been done early. Free agency is largely about PR. Betts should have never reached free agency. (And he never did.) Montgomery does move the needle as an improvement. I could also see passing on him because there are numerous other pitchers who can move it more. Or are candidates to move it more…

If you think wins are a good pitching stat, know that Jamie Moyer has more of them than some 40 Hall of Fame starting pitchers. He has 50 more than Pedro…

This one almost feels like straight PR at this point. Montgomery isn’t a franchise-altering pitcher; he’s a good pitcher who has the good fortune to reach free agency in a season where he was a Top Three option at his position. If they pass, hopefully it’s because they don’t think Montgomery is the guy and not because they have some blanket policy about paying nine figure deals to free agent starting pitchers…

I never pretend to know what goes on behind the scenes. The Sox might have made one, in which case it was clearly insufficient. Or maybe they never made an offer because the preliminary numbers they’re throwing around keep getting dismissed. And speaking that, when is it an official offer?

What is Montgomery/Boras asking for?

I get it’s unlikely to change. But Ted Williams had 185 hits in 456 ABs that included 14 run-scoring flyballs. In 1941, this resulted in a .406 BA. In 1940, this would have resulted in a .419 BA. In 1939, it’s .406 again. In 1943 through 1954 - .406 In 1955 and since - .419. From 1908 to 1931 - .419. Before 1908, probably higher than .419 (prior to 1908, hitters were not credited with an at bat if any runner advanced on a fly ball). That’s just some weird rule changes…

.419 That one has already been done by someone else. The Wikipedia article on the sacrifice fly mentions it…

Babe Ruth, Herb Pennock (HOF), Waite Hoyt (HOF), Carl Mays (should be HOF), Bullet Joe Bush, and Sad Sam Jones. All to the same team in a short timeframe…

My new campaign when they make me Commissioner - harmonize batting averages. I don’t get why I can go to baseball-reference and see that Cy Young won 1892 ERA title when that stat didn’t even exist at that time. Or why I can see Wilcy Moore lead the ‘27 Yankees in saves some 40 years before the save was conceived. But no one can go back through the 1930 through 1954 seasons and re-calculate the batting average without sac flies. I mean, have you ever thought what it took to back fill the save data all the way back? To go thru every box score and see if there was a save? And what version of the save rule did they use? This update would be peanuts in comparison…

Hey I’ve been saying “still hope” all off-season! I’m not surprised WAR changes. But it’s not unique to that stat. In 2010, I watched an Orioles-White Sox game that started with a ceremony honoring Jim Gentile for winning the 1961 RBI crown, something a change in the stats gave him earlier that week. (The Orioles also honored Gentile’s 1961 contractual clause and awarded him a $5,000 bonus for winning the RBI crown.) Hack Wilson also saw his record-setting RBI total jump from 190 to 191. Or he would have seen it happen if he hasn’t died 50 years earlier. So I’m not surprised WAR changes…

Just admit it was surprising to find out ERod had better WAR than Eovaldi over that stretch. I admit I was surprised, although it made more sense once I realized ERod only pitched 46 fewer innings over that four year stretch. If you tried to qualify it with “lead the team in WAR for all pitchers who pitched in each of those seasons”, someone, possibly not me, would have said “soooo… more WAR than Brasier?” I don’t think anyone else would have qualified. And yes, similar WAR numbers aren’t definitive. But the leader in WAR is. Just because ERod had 0.3 more bWAR than Eovaldi didn’t mean he was a better pitcher. But it does mean he has more bWAR. And we as fans get this nitpicky with lots and lots of stats. For example, what did batting average tell you? For me, it tells me 95% of the league gets a hit in the range of 20% to 30% of their at bats. Not a big range, but we sure as heck that out like one. Sometimes down to too much detail. For example, in 1949, Ted Williams lead the AL in home runs and RBI. But not in batting average, which he lost to George Kell by .0002. Why? What was the point? Why did MLB suddenly decide they needed four decimal places? And did anyone think Kell was a better hitter? Williams got no credit for a triple crown that year, and a difference that small could have been a grounder that should have been an error (on a Kell hit). Or one that shouldn’t have been for Williams. Or a miscall at first base. Or maybe even a runner getting thrown out trying to score on a flyball? Is it possible Williams lost out on a triple crown because the Sox had a slower runner on third base? Does that somehow make Ted a worse hitter? Would we look at him as even better if he got that third triple crown? (The sac fly scenario described above was not possible in 1949, as that was within the timeframe when MLB credited hitters with an at bat for sac flies, a rule they changed back in 1954. But it’s weird to think under today’s rules, it is a possibility.) But the stats are what they are. Kell still reigns as the 1949 batting champion. (Fix that, Manfred!!) And ERod had more bWAR than Eovaldi during that 4 year stretch…