notin

Doesn't Rafaela only need to be a 1.0 fWAR centerfielder to beat expectations? I think he can at least do that...

First of all, “when he did pitch” shouldn’t be a dismissive qualifier in this case. It was a major factor. He did pitch pretty well, posting a 3.92 FIP across his last 9 starts. But why is that suddenly such a guarantee? In his last 9 starts of 2022, Kluber posted a 3.89 FIP and we all saw how that turned out. The notion that Sale was clearly over his injury history and going to pitch like he did seven years ago is based on hindsight and nothing else. Kluber was a lesser risk last year, and that was a clear mistake. The Braves took a gamble and it’s paying off. They knew it was risky, which is why the Sox had to pay the bulk of the salary. It’s working out great for them so far, but in the event Sale did get hurt, the Braves were well-positioned to handle it. When Spencer Strider went down, he was replaced in the rotation with a pitcher who was an MLB All Star last year!! The Sox have no MLB All Star starters; the Braves had one they cut from the MLB roster. And didn’t you make some comment about Kluber last year being a potentially disastrous signing that could derail the season? But now this year, Sale was supposed to be an obvious keeper? Who, if counted in, would have surprised no one if he went down for the season in April and left the Sox counting of Grant Gambrell and Brian Van Belle, neither of whom has ever been named to an MLB All Star team…

Plus the gripe is focused around no one else apparently wanting him. Giolito signed on January 3rd. The pitching market outside of Yamamoto and Nola had barely budged. Giolito wasn’t going to be ignored forever, and if the Sox waited the price could have easily gone up as alternatives dwindled…

It’s more fun than watching last year’s, unless you liked the excitement of wondering whether or not that routine groundball to shortstop would result in an out…

That might happen at some point. But do the Sox swap out every player who struggles for 50-60 PA? That level of impatience is not likely to be productive…

Be fair to Giolito. Two teams clearly wanted him last year. When the Sox signed him, the starting pitching market beyond Japanese imports hadn’t budged yet…

No one is saying the Sox won this trade. As ridiculous as that notion always is. Just that it was understandable to move Chris Sale given what he has done the last 5 seasons. If the Sox kept Sale and he was already out for the year, would you be happy they kept him? Even if you heard they had a chance to deal him?

Plus they tried to extend Casas, but couldn’t come to an agreement. Yet…

Nobody was knocking on the doors of Snell and Montgomery at that time either. The Sox tried to be aggressive for once and sign a guy before he was the best option left. It didn’t work out this time, but that’s probably not a behavior they should be called out for…

Nobody expected Sale to jump out of the gate like he was back in 2027 form. If Sale winds up with a 4.40 ERA, like he had in 2019 across 147 innings, does this trade still look so bad and deserve this much attention? Yes it was about cutting salary, but that salary had done almost nothing since 2018. That year, know who Sale finished behind in Cy Young balloting?? COREY KLUBER!! And we are know what the next 5 years did to him. And Sox fans frequently cite Kluber as a huge waste at $10mill, but you think Sale at $27mill was worth the risk?

That was. You asked about bottom 5 teams winning rings, but set the bar for the Yankees and Dodgers at merely making the postseason. But the Rays have been spending nothing and gone to the last 5 postseasons, which is more than the Yankees in that stretch.

And maybe he OPSs .450 and the only 1b option left is Dalbec. I’d give Smith and Cooper a bit longer. Cooper had an OPS well over .700 with the Cubs earlier this month. Do people think he forgot how to hit since then? Or is it maybe that these sample sizes are just very small? Would Kavadas get more than 50-60 PA to prove himself?

There are bottom 5 teams that make the postseason nearly every year…

If you’re going to argue no one is a sure thing, at least acknowledge that Soto offers much, much, much (insert several more “much” repetitions here) less uncertainty than Jones and Dominguez…

I don’t think I’ve ever seen three kids come up that were more exciting and more excited to play than Soto, JRod and Harper…

“What a long, strange trip it’s been…”

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40231476/mlb-umpire-angel-hernandez-retiring First right call he’s ever made…

Kavadas was an option when they brought in Cooper and Smith. Usually you do the internal ones first, since they’re easier to undo of they don’t work out. But with Cooper (DFA) and Smith (opt out) becoming available when they did, they got first shot. The problem is Kavadas and Dalbec could absolutely be worse, despite biased rationale to the contrary. Heck Dalbec is already worse. But to make room for Kavadas, you have to DFA one of the current first baseman. Meaning if Kavadas is worse, then what?

Smith and Cooper are far from an envious duo, but Dalbec and Kavadas would be change for the sake of change. Breslow had the chance to promote Kavadas and passed for Smith. I’d say Cooper and Smith have a low ceiling (especially Smith) but there is a greater chance both of them improve than of Dalbec rediscovering 2020-2021, and of Kavadas making any sort of immediate impact. These players have a combined 120PA and you’re already giving up on them. How long would Kavadas/Dalbec get? And does that include Dalbec’s horrific start this year? I mean, Cooper still has only 52 PAs in Boston. Why is that enough? We knew he was hitting major league pitching as recently as earlier this month…

Dalbec has been in decline 3 straight years and has struck out in over 50% of his plate appearances since 2023. And HE is the guy who deserves a second chance? The only way I agree with that is if people concede Smith and Cooper haven’t had their first one yet. Also, it is very possible a Dalbec/Kavadas solution is worse…

Smith’s K was a huge gift to Baltimore. I don’t blame him for taking that pitch. Easily 6 inches off the plate…

Yeah maybe at best you buy out his arb years and delay free agency by 1-2 years. But even that seems unlikely unless he collapses…

Rob Dibble, John Wetteland, Randy Myers all just through the ol’ number one. I think it was Dibble who once said “I change speeds by throwing harder.”

I like the idea extending Houck and Crawford back in February. But their prices are going up as with the success. Crawford is slowing down, possibly related to workload. Houck will eventually as well. But this is inevitable, and not a reason to not extend them…

Well, sad. It was a good and accurate name. I want wild about the extension when it was signed, but it couldn’t have gone any worse…