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It definitely seems that way with the years…

Especially since they made the postseason that year and Strasburg didn’t pitch in their one series…

I can’t find anyone, and it’s also difficult to find pitcher extensions greater than 5 years. Maybe a good parallel is Sandy Alcantara. After his age 25 season, he had 4 years of service time and only 486 IP, and was coming off a 4 bWAR season. He had some injury issues the first few years but no TJ. (He has had one since.) His extension was 5 years $55mill. Certainly inflation and baseball economics would dictate Crochet top that AAV, but double it? And for longer? The only pitcher my limited research has found to get a contract extension longer than 5 years was Jose Berrios. That’s the list…

Potential payday of $250million? Where did that number come from? Only 4 pitchers in history have received contracts that large. Shohei Ohtani (an obvious unique case), Yamamoto (who was 25; Crochet will not be a free agent at age 25 and has less experience and an arm surgery), Gerrit Cole, and Stephen Straburg (it was actually $245mill, but close enough. Also a strong contender for the worst contract in MLB history, as Strasburg only pitched 31 innings on it before injuries ended his career. Washington still owes him $70mill over the next two seasons.) Ohtani will very likely see his pitching career end before that contract does, but he can clearly contribute other ways…

The difference is the bidding war for Yamamoto actually happened and isn’t some conditional future possibility like it is with Crochet…

No, he bundled it with his home and auto…

Yamamoto had about 900 IP in Japan and had his salary determined by a multi-team bidding war. I stand by my Tyler Glasnow comp as the closest so far…

I think Hanley did actually get hurt. Once he banged up his shoulder, he went from early MVP candidate to long term Manchurian Candidate…

Contractually bound? And gagged?

Throws hard. Works cheap. His problem is he couldn’t find the strike zone if he bought a house in it and moved there..

Hopefully one or both are locked up long before then…

To get Casas?

I don’t think they will be including any top pitching prospects. Casas himself is the motivating acquisition for them. And Herrera is the big get for the Sox…

And how much guaranteed?

Yes because the Red Sox love waiting 4-5 years for pitchers with 8 figure AAVs to return to form. Just ask Chris Sale…

It’s a much higher risk for pitchers. And even greater for pitchers who have already had one TJ surgery…

I don’t think it’s a matter of seeing more of him. I think it’s a matter of mitigating risk in terms of years. I think 6 years is the absolute maximum, and a 3-5 year extension is more likely. (I’m assuming 2025 is already taken care of, so everything starts in 2026.) I don’t see how what he would earn in free agency is relevant; the entire point is to pay him less and Crochet’s goal is to get earlier security. And as Crochet has openly stated he wants an extension, I would guess these free agent prices won’t ever come up beyond this thread. The Sox aren’t desperate here because of what they traded to get him; it was fair compensation for 2 years of an elite talent. Crochet likely isn’t desperate either, but again, has expressed willingness, which could mean he knows he won’t be getting paid like a free agent. I think they get him extended before opening day, and it will be in the 3-5 year range. Money is tough to determine; I don’t know what Crochet will settle for. But I would throw out a range in the $22-25mill AAV, presumably with the AAV going down as the years went up. I am not going to speculate on team options, but they are more likely than opt outs, because it’s the Sox looking for protection whereas Crochet should be looking for security. If the Sox added one or two very high AAV team options, it might make sense for both sides. I’m talking $26-30mill AAV team option(s).

Robert Stock is back, making him the first player acquired by multiple CBO’s since Rich Hill…

Hey Romy was second on the Sox in exit velocity last year. But I think he bulked it up by getting a disproportionate number of at bats vs LHP…

I question the Cards moving Herrera. Maybe they like Pedro Pages more than I do? Of course getting Casas pre-arb should make it worthwhile for them. I’ve heard that rumor with Crawford instead of Winckowski. I’d prefer dealing Winckowski, what with all the rebuilt arms in the Sox rotation…

On the 40 man, we have 11 SPs counting Sandoval, who. is not long for the 40 man once he can be moved. And I want to say they have 13 relief pitchers. Those numbers could change to 10 and 14 if Fulmer replaces Sandoval…

No other team had 5 prospects in the top MLB.com top 50, so no one else could have. But would other teams if they were in the Sox position? Definitely.

Of course for a long time, some folks debated the existence of that $300 mill offer and assumed the Sox stopped at $200mill, especially after Mookie said he never received a $300 mill offer. Maybe he never did, but it looks like he did get one close to if not in the $290-299 mill range. Depending on the years, that AAV could be very close to the one he settled on…

One - and I think big - reason the Sox fall short on extensions is historically they don’t seem to get the process started until the player is a year or two away from free agency. How often do they attempt to buy out all three arbitration years like other teams do? Granted, it’s more often done by small market teams, but if you’re pretending to be a small market teams, do it right. Lester. Bogaerts. Even Sale. All one year from free agency. I think the Mookie thing started in 2017 or 2018, making it a rare exception if true. Beyond that, is Whitlock the only time they tried? Of course they did not have this option with Crochet. Thsts why I like seeing the change with Anthony, Campbell and Mayer. The earlier the extension, the less risky. Sure there will be some Scott Kingery style flops if you extend too early. But the most common result is a younger player paid like a mediocre vet. If Jackson Chourio doesn’t become a star, he’s only getting Max Kepler money, so it really isn’t a big deal if he maintains Max Kepler production.

Both sides are aware of the injury concern. It’s probably going to be a part of the big reason the Sox won’t have to go as high as 8 years of $200mill to sign extend Crochet…