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That’s my plan…

I think the only ranked prospects moved last year at the deadline were for Scherzer and Verlander, both of whom were under control this year. And in both cases, the Mets kicked in lots of money…

Does Dombrowski count as an objective observer? Because at the trade deadline that year, he added a starter, not a reliever. Cashner did become a massive flop after starting 6 games with an ERA over 8.00 and was eventually moved to the bullpen. But if the bullpen was the obvious problem, why didn’t he add a reliever?

I agreed with the rotation stuff. I felt it was understated. And sorry, the 2019 bullpen was better than the 2018. And blown saves are irrelevant towards that, as shown. Sure they were not as good at closer in 2019, but the closer is only one of 8 guys in the bullpen. Saying the bullpen is worse because of the closer is like saying the 2019 lineup is better because Brock Holt was an upgrade over Eduardo Nunez/Ian Kinsler…

This team would be much better without this trade and the subsequent Giolito signing. No one disputes that. But there is a difference between a stupid trade and one that simply doesn’t work out…

No one is saying the trade has worked out. Just that it made more sense in January when no one knew Sale would actually be healthy and Giolito wouldn’t…

I went thru the game logs for the 2019 bullpen. I found 29 of their blown saves. Their record in those 29 games - 13 wins 16 losses. Granted, I never went thru to see if any games had multiple blown saves. That’s too much to ask. But with that bullpen, a blown save is not an indicator of a loss…

Also in post 546, you ask if I don’t think the Sox could have gambled on Sale. I responded that they lost that gamble four times already, referring to him getting injured in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Your response? “Makes zero sense.” I’m fairly certain you and I did not view Sale as the same level of injury risk, and you do seem to be strongly downplaying his injury history. At least that’s what is coming across here…

Also in your posting history, you bring up the Dodgers gambling on Glasnow. The Dodgers, very much like the Braves, are loaded with starting pitching in the upper minors, which is why those teams can make those gambles. The Red Sox are not, largely due to questionable drafting by Bloom, Cherington, and (to a much lesser extent) Dombrowski. The Sox just aren’t in the same place…

I did. Your viewpoint comes across like you think Sale was just as likely to get injured as anyone else, despite his losing significant time 4 seasons in a row. And in post 663, you state you find injury histories to be all but irrelevant. Exact quote ”What seems clear to me is that past injuries do not necessarily predict future injuries” Also, earlier you downplayed that Sale was 35, after it was pointed out that’s is not uncommon for players at that age often lose effective quickly and without warning. Your response was along the lines of that can happen at any age. I agree budget had an impact, but I totally understand why the Sox felt the need to move on. He was a gamble, pure and simple. Injury histories are absolutely relevant. And his high cost made him a logical candidate to find a buyer. Grissom hasn’t worked out, but I was glad they at least tried to get something for Sale, rather than trading him and less money for a 30yo AAAA player or equivalent. And if Sale’s 2024 was looking like his 2020, 2021, 2022, or 2023, no one is disagreeing with this trade. If you look back at this thread to when it happened, the overwhelming majority of the posts at least understood why it was being done…

And Imanaga would have been great, although I admit his success to date is extremely surprising. But adding more pitchers only strengthens the argument that it made sense to try to move on from Sale…

I’ll admit, I would have been disappointed if they counted on Sale being healthy again for another year. So I would right now be pleasantly surprised with the results…

Well the plan at the time was Giolito was much less likely to get injured. Just because you think she and injury history are irelevant with the health of a pitcher doesn’t change the reality that they are. The plan was to swap out a pitcher who was averaging less than 40 IP per season with one averaging 150 IP per season, and in the process fixing their weakest starting position from 2023. And those two combined upgrades only cost $7mill-ish. Obviously, nothing has worked out so far. But none of that was as obvious in December as you seem to think it was. And this trade has exploded with everything going wrong that could have gone wrong. But no one knew that was going to happen. And their idea was to get more IP plus get a 2b option out of the $27.5mill they spent on Sale. Did you enjoy the depth Sale gave the Sox last year? Because they were reportedly offered a trade in which they gave up Sale’s whole contract at the 2022 trade deadline, and Bloom turned it down. Apparently he wanted a legit prospect for Sale. And then Sale followed up the Sox keeping him by going for a bike ride and ending his season…

Yes. They had budget limitations. That’s why gambling on Sale was not the obvious solution…

I think the plan was to use Sale’s salary to increase the volume of starting pitching, which they did. Having a surplus of starting pitching was why Atlanta was in a better position to take on Sale, despite your refusal to believe it. If Boston kept Sale and he went down again, who steps up? Atlanta had Bryce Elder, Spencer Schwellenback, Dylan Dodd, AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, etc. all in AAA waiting to step up. Let this fact about the comparative depth of both teams - the Braves had more MLB All Stars pitching in AAA at the start of the year than the Red Sox had in Boston. If the Sox kept Sale, they feared their depth below him made them too exposed…

Are all your arguments going to hinge on Sale being just as likely to get injured as any player in MLB? And that injury history is meaningless?

I bet I can name more 35yos where it happened than you can name 25yos who did…

I’m hoping Story gets healthy, but my faith in him being healthy for 2025 is less than it was for 2024, which was less than it was for 2023, which was less than it was for 2022, which was where is all began. If the Sox moved on from Story, I would understand why. I might not like it, but I would certainly understand it. Just like I understand why they moved on from Sale…

I will admit my faith in Story dwindles every season. And he’s a shortstop, where injuries end fewer careers than pitchers. He’s also not even 35 yet, when production can fall off rapidly and without warning…

If the Sox traded Story this off-season, and Story bounced back with a 4 or 5 fWAR season, what would your opinion be?

There are so many situational examples of why blown saves carry the appropriate abbreviation of BS. And even saves themselves are corrupted, because any pitcher who pitches the last 3 innings of a game without blowing a lead of any size is credited with a save…

I’m not sure that was viewed as positively as you think it is. If he’s healthy, it’s great. If he keeps getting hurt, it’s not a bonus…

Agreed. You can never have enough pitching. So why are you advocating tying up $27.5mill for a pitcher who has pitched 150 IP in the past 4 years? Wouldn’t it make sense to allocate that money to someone more likely to actually pitch? Sale has been paid about $800K per inning for 4 seasons now. What part of this says it makes sense to hope he gets healthy and bounces back effectively?

Did they need one if Sale was healthy? Sale had multiple chances and simply never stayed on the mound. Sure he gave them 40 IP at the end of 2023. He did the same thing in 2021, and then followed up the next year with FIVE INNINGS PITCHED for the season. And all this started when he was 30. Sale is 35 now. Why would anyone think his inability to stay healthy at ages 30 through 34 would suddenly disappear at 35? If the Sox brought back Rick Porcello, you’d probably think “this guy hasn’t pitched in years and is getting older.” And if you didn’t think that, I certainly would have. But he’s also only pitched about 90 less IP than Sale in the previous 4 seasons and is only 3 months older. Also, he hasn’t been on a team since 2020. (And if 2020 was a full season, Porcello’s total IP in the last 4 years very likely exceeds Sale’s total.)

Did they need one if Sale was healthy?