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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    I can agree Soto is probably too old for Little League…
  2. notin
    I don’t think anyone expects the Sox to sign Soto. But the premise that they cannot afford him is also a complete fallacy. I don’t expect anything more than a cursory attempt to sign him that serves two purposes. 1) Keeps that bidding elevated, if only slightly, and 2) gets that all important link to him in the media that they tried….
  3. notin
    And what are all these people who never met Juan Soto basing this on?
  4. notin
    A Betts vs Soto argument is another type of rabbit hole. But regardless of which one is better, the reality is one of those two superstars in unavailable, and this lack of availability has created some unrest among the money-paying fanbase directed solely at the owner. If Henry wants to create an unrivaled upswing in enthusiasm, no player - and definitely not Burnes nor Fried - is going to create it more than Soto. Soto is expensive, and more expensive than Betts. But the money is going up. If you don’t pay now, what are you waiting for? Does anyone think the next 26yo free agent superstar will be cheaper?
  5. notin
    I like how you casually drop in “just sign a guy like Fried” as if they’re equivalent options in both money and years. Obviously, there is something about Pivetta the Sox like enough to offer him $21mill, and if you think he’s going to decline, you’re saying other teams see it as well…
  6. notin
    If Pivetta does decline, it still didn’t mean he’s gone. The Sox have the advantage for signing him in that they don’t give up any draft pick compensation…
  7. notin
    According to many, we’re paying him to add more deadweight…
  8. notin
    Can’t, a contraction of “can not” can mean either 1) “not able to” perform a task as in “I can’t lift a blue whale with one arm.” It can also mean 2) “not permitted to” perform a task, as in “I can’t go to art museum in the nude again.” I’m guessing he meant definition (1)…
  9. notin
    1. Yes they are all position players, but they are all also easily tradable for pitching, which makes them a more reliable source of pitching than pitching prospects. 2. Soto is a laughable Gold Glove nominee, but the Sox could also use a superstar talent. Soto is just that, and playing him in LF fits in with the Boston tradition of Hall of Fame left fielders. 3. You’ve been talking up the Sox as the third most valuable franchise in MLB. The problem isn’t whether or not the Sox can afford him, but only whether or not they want to. They probably don’t, but it’s a poor excuse. Matt Fried and Corbin Burnes might give you 2 or 3 decent years on a 7 year deal. Soto might give you 10 great/eventually good season on a 14 year deal. The Sox need the latter more than the former…
  10. notin
    The 1993 Blue Jays went an entire regular season with RHPs starting 150 out of 162 games. Oh, and they won the World Series that year…
  11. notin
    The Red Sox are worth $4.05 billion, third most valuable franchise in MLB. They can be a financial behemoth if they so choose…
  12. notin
    I would not say that. His first full season in MLB was rough with an ERA over 6. But that’s hardly unique and he did show progress until he crashed in September. He then strung together 3 seasons that placed him 7th in MLB in fWAR over that time. Then he fell apart in 2022 and 2023 and ultimately got TJ. Maybe his arm is better now? We will find out. But if his subpar 2022 and 2023 seasons were related to that, a turnaround is absolutely possible…
  13. notin
    MLBTR has been notoriously light on their years and dollars predictions lately. I wouldn’t be surprised of Fried got something closer to 7 yrs $203mill ($29mill AAV)…
  14. notin
    Bid? Yes. Win? No…
  15. notin
    He was also one of the best pitchers in MLB from 2019-2021. I’d be surprised if he returned to that level, but we’ve all seen crazier comebacks recently…
  16. notin
    It was Abreu (plus?). Using the Trade Simulator on baseballtradevslues.com, Abreu (surplus value of $30.3 mill) plus Arias ($11.5mill) does slightly exceed the value of López ($38.5mill). From a fair trade perspective using projections and salary, it’s a fair trade on their model. As I think you’re a Twins fan, you might know their goals better than me. But Gold Glover Abreu is a decent low-cost replacement for the departed lefty-hitting defensive whiz Max Kepler. And Arias is an MLB.com Top 100 prospect. It’s a decent return that allows MN to shed $65.2 mill of López over 3 years. But you might be right they do not prefer a lefty bat…
  17. notin
    I like the idea of dealing Abreu (plus?) for 28yo Pablo Lopez. Obviously Minnesota might feel differently about this deal. But López has been worth 5.8 bWAR over the past two season, not far off the pace of Fried (6.1) and Burnes (6.9). But with only 3 years left, his contract expires at the same age both Burnes and Fried will be after their first season under any new deal. (Actually before the first season in the case of Fried.) To me, they both have the potential to be short term solutions requiring long term commitments. Another pitcher I’d consider include Sandy Alcantara, whose rapid salary escalation makes him a very likely candidate to move, His BTV surplus tradevalue is lower than López’, $20mill last I checked. But not sure what direction the Marlins want with a return. Bleis and Arias? Im all about Tanner Scott, but Japanese LHRP Shinnsuke Ogarasawa might be in play here as well..
  18. notin
    BTV hates it but the White Sox probably love it. Id do Teel before Mayer personally…
  19. notin
    I’d be surprised if Boston got direct 8th/9th inning guys to replace Jansen and Martin. With Hendriks, Fulmer and Whitlock all coming back and joining Slaten and Winckowski, the late inning RHRP role is not short on alternatives…
  20. notin
    Scott is the most logical fit for Boston, as our lefty reliever candidates are Brennan Bernardino, Zach Penrod, and Cam Booser. Beyond Scott, the most intriguing lefty might be Andrew Chafin. And honorable mentions go out to Aroldis Chapman and Danny Coulombe. Although Coulombe had a rather affordable $4mill option that Baltimore backed out of, which gives me pause. Especially when you consider how effective he’s been for them the last two seasons…
  21. notin
    Trea Turner did that as well, which in the long run wound up benefiting Xander Bogaerts…
  22. notin
    Actually, if you buy the first 10 years at $70mill, you get the last 4 for free…
  23. notin
    Don’t be like Morgan Freeman in Shawshank Redemption. But if we’re being honest about Soto, I don’t exactly think the Dodgers are moving Gold Glove right fielder Mookie Betts back to the infield so they can accommodate Randal Grichuk, if you get my not-so-subtle drift….
  24. notin
    Until he signs somewhere else, he’s in play. And don’t be that Dream Dasher Guy. It makes me think you told your kids the truth about Santa when they were four…
  25. notin
    Sox are gettin’ Soto!!!
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