notin
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Everything posted by notin
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
notin replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Are the Sox really going to ad another SP? Currently on the 40 man roster they have Crochet, Houck, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins and Criswell. And reportedly they plan to try and return Fulmer to a SP role. And now Sandoval, who cannot be moved to the 60 day IL until Spring Training. That’s 11 starting pitchers out of 40 players. Sure, a couple (few?) might eventually fall back into bullpen roles at some point. But that’s kind of a lot of SP numerically to have at this point in the offseason… -
That’s only because that’s how long it took the grounds crew to roll him off of it…
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But that was Bloom. Paxton was healthy and pitching when Breslow acquired him. And that is a rarity right now…
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To be fair, Sandoval was signed by one GM, released by another, and should have never been in Boston in the first place…
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When they moved Sale, I understood that they had simply been too frustrated with his constant injuries. But lately it seems like thats all they want. Even Crochet has had one TJ. I suppose this bodes well for anyone eyeing Walker Buehler. Unless the Sox think he isn’t injured enough yet.
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If they acquired a 3b that can field (and demote Yoshida to Worcester), and get a decent pitch-framing catcher, the staff will improve without actually improving.
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Sandoval is a good pitcher, but enough with the rehab deals already. We haven’t even seen if the first two worked out yet.
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Houck is the ace we think we need.
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What was smart about hiring Stearns is it shows Cohen knows his limitations. He doesn’t want to be like that other famous New York baseball owner who frequently tried to run the show himself.
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Definitely. For almost all of their 63 year existence, the Mets have failed to gain much notice in the New York media. Cohen clearly wants to change that. Getting Soto on its own was a big coup, but that he took him from the Yankees just makes it that much more significant. I do not think he’s stopping there. Not until he jumps ahead of the Yankees in the New York sports pages.
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TH makes the most sense. Unless the plan is to move Devers into a 1b/Dh role and trade/release/demote Yoshida, and actually use Bregman at 3b
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But with Conforto and Pages already on board, why would the Dodgers up their offer? They’ve already removed Mookie from the overcrowded corner OF spots Seems to me they could consider upgrading the defense by focusing on defense with a CF or a SS. Or just flip flop Betts and Edman’s positions,.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
notin replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The Sox lost Pivetta, O’Neill and Jansen. Martin, too, but his 0.2 bWAR isn’t irreplaceable. They added Crochet and Chapman. And expect to get back Story, Whitlock, Hendriks, and Fulmer, all of whom played very little last season or missed it entirely.. Safe bet Tampa and Toronto had some players as well… -
I think while fair value is not the goal, it’s quite often the solution, as a trade proposal only becomes a trade when both sides agree. And more trades are done for reasons related to money. In those cases, getting an overpayment (or even equal talent ) isn’t always the goal. I mean, no one thinks Cody Poteet is as good of a baseball player as Cody Bellinger…
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And it’s easy to say “I doubt it will.” Safe bet random message board banter has never influenced any front office. Is Abreu plus Hamilton fair value for Jones? Maybe? But if Pitt is trying to capitalize on a hot market, “fair value” probably isn’t their goal…
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They post it as is. They used to add money to one side or another to make it work, but then said so in the comments. In dont think they do that anymore since you can post lopsided trades with certain access levels (which the site admin clearly has)…
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I can’t speak to why they update, but I can theorize. But history has shown it is usually fairly accurate. Of course most teams probably use similar methods but with different sources to determine trade values of their players and targets, which is why it usually works. But sometimes it doesn’t. Is that because it’s just inaccurate? Or because sometimes teams overpay/underpay? I think it did a good job telling you what’s fair. That doesn’t mean every team only wants fair value…
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I doubt they figure the cost of replacing the player. And why should they? Abreu’s trade value isn’t affected at all by the presence of Roman Anthony. That might influence Boston’s desire to move him, but it doesn’t make him a better or cheaper player…
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At some point, what BTV cannot account for is what Pittsburgh thinks of those players…
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I’m sure there are some sites that project arbitration and free agent salaries. Of course there’s some balance because of those salaries get too high, it increases the value of the WAR that they are countering. Crochet’s trade worked out really well on the BTV model. Some trades dont. Kyle Tucker’s recent deal, for example, was a massive overpass by the Cubs on that model. A trade off Jones might beas well, but that’s going to happen every so often. The simple math they use can’t accommodate what tans feel their players are worth and what it will take to pay them away
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Sure it can. That’s probably why Luis Castillo’s surplus value has jumped about $30million in the past 5 months…
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BTV is drawing his value from various projections like Steamer, ZiPS, etc. and gave him a surplus of $40.4mill. So what are those sites projecting for him? And at what salaries? I assume those folks are fully aware of his age. Personally I think he’s not as available as folks want him to be. Mitch Keller, also rumored, feels like the guy they move…
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Or maybe some people are assuming the best for a pitcher with a 4.74 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in AAA…
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9.8 K/9 last year….
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Why would you pay all of his salary AND include a prospect just to trade him? At that point, it’s just easier to release him. Also if the goal is roster flexibility, you can demote Yoshida to Worcester. He still has options left.
