Jump to content
Talk Sox
  • Create Account

notin

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    53,344

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    45

 Content Type 

Profiles

Boston Red Sox Videos

2026 Boston Red Sox Top Prospects Ranking

Boston Red Sox Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2025 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker

News

2026 Boston Red Sox Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    He might be, but last April/May when I wanted the Sox to extend him, he looked like a Cy Young candidate they were foolish to leave unextended…
  2. notin
    I think most of Refsnyder’s time in LF was because Duran was covering CF while Rafaela played SS…
  3. notin
    I was hoping for Crawford and Houck extensions last year. But worth noting, one year ago we hadn’t extended anyone. Crochet will be top priority, but the Sox do have to meet his numbers. After him, I suspect Anthony and/or Campbell…
  4. notin
    Anyone else? Refsnyder isn’t a good outfielder, but he certainly isn’t the worst one in MLB. And he’s probably better out there than Romy would be. Romy is at best an emergency outfielder, best only deployed when the only other remaining options are pitchers, catchers, or just leaving it empty…
  5. notin
    Great. Two men in their 70’s ought to help this team. The modern version is Kristian and Roman. No lions…
  6. notin
    So far, Bello and Rafaela…
  7. notin
    Ive said it before - sign your own players before free agency and before arbitration when possible. If you believe every $8,000,000 is worth one win, will Juan Soto be worth 95 WAR in the next 15 years? It only averages out to a very beatable 6.3 WAR per year. Of course he will spend one third of that contract between 35 and 40 years old. And only 22 players in MLB history have been worth 95 WAR, yet at that rate, Soto should have that much LEFT. It would also give Soto 131 WAR for his career, enough for 6th all time. Ahead of Ted Williams and Tris Speaker and just behind Hank Aaron. And I know I’m talking about just one player, but Soto also has to be one of the surest things in free agency since ARod…
  8. notin
    I’m not worried about any of the hitters’ injuries from last year. I worry much more about Crochet, Whitlock, Hendriks, Giolito, etc. as the comeback road for pitchers always seems much more difficult…
  9. notin
    That’s absolutely not a nonsensical argument; it’s an inherent problem with the statistic in general. Anyone who has ever done any data analysis has been told repeatedly to not rely on average as a statistic. I used to work with a quality manager who would say (and he probably shouldn’t have) “the average person has one ball and one tit, but you don’t see many of them walking around.” There are numerous other options, but they’re not as easy…
  10. notin
    Didn’t he come back from that last year?
  11. notin
    Hamilton is a lock for the 26 man roster if healthy. He’s a lousy SS but he’s a good 2b and a great pinch runner, especially useful in the ghost runner era. Gonzalez isn’t a lock for anything…
  12. notin
    Didn’t Devin Williams give up a postseason losing walkoff home run LAST YEAR? And the answer, of course, is no. When Williams gave up a ninth inning, two out, 3 run home run to Pete Alonso in the last game of the NLWC series, allowing the Mets to come back from a 2-0 deficit to a 4-2 winning margin and take the series, it was during a home game. In front of his own fans…
  13. notin
    The diagnosis was “shoulder inflammation.” Kind of vague, but if you or I had such a diagnosis, the doctor would tell us “take some Advil and quit whining.” (Maybe your doctor is less of an a-hole than mine.). There are a range of inflammations and treatments. The most “severe” treatment is probably an injection of corticosteroids. For many players, those injections are part of their balanced breakfast…
  14. notin
    Steamer couldn’t predict yesterday’s weather. When it comes to projections I rely on the time-honored adage “if it’s not WAPM, it’s CRAPM”…
  15. notin
    So when last year’s 80 at bats aren’t a convincing sample size, we go to the 75 at bats from the previous year? Here’s what we need to know about Grissom. The Sox thought enough about him to ask for him in the Sale trade. The Braves thought enough of Grissom to make the Sox pay salary if Grissom was involved, and the Sox paid it. And considering the Sox had at least one offer to take Sale’s entire contract, this is significant. Add to that Grissom dominated in the minors and made MLB within the first two years of his MiLB career. He’s very likely getting first shot at 2b over Hamilton and certainly over Romy Gonzalez, who is likely very high on the DFA list (unlike Grissom). Certainly Kristian Campbell can derail Grissom, but i wouldn’t count on Romy/Hamilton, both of whom took a lot longer to achieve a small modicum of success and did so at an older age than Grissom…
  16. notin
    Are fans calling a 24 yo who missed spring training and had injuries a lemon because he struggled for 80 at bats?
  17. notin
    But the life of these deals makes nearly all of them detrimental long term. To the $8mill/WAR; does that calculation reflect only free agent money? Or are players on extensions included? There is a vast difference in those situations that easily get lumped together. Even that $8mill/WAR is an average - an often used an often misleading stat. It can be skewed heavily by a small number of successes. For example, it is completely true that the average net worth of me, you, and Bill Gates is over $50 billion each. Does it accurately reflect your savings account? Per free agency, too often the players are aging and ready for, if not already in decline. Filling gaps is a good use, but the heavy spending more often than not leads to an unavoidable and inescapable decline. Most if not all fans say they are ok with free agents dragging the team down if they have successful years upfront. But almost none keep that attitude once the lean years set in…
  18. notin
    Refsnyder played 163 innings in RF last year; Romy played 11. It’s painfully obvious who Cora prefers. Im still holding out that another RHH OF with actual defensive skills enters the picture, but I expect no action on that front until the 60 day IL opens up…
  19. notin
    Hoping DH platoon. Probably RF platoon, at least as it stands now. Plus he can back up 1b in a pinch…
  20. notin
    So if they just get better, but do it by being cheap = fail? Ive repeatedly stated free agent spending is largely just PR. And you’ve challenged that, but this last post isn’t convincing me otherwise…
  21. notin
    I have liked O’Neill, even as a Cardinal. And losing his 1.180 OPS vs LHP will be tough. But along the same lines, losing his .693 OPS vs RHP should soften that blow a little bit. The Sox have a good OF. I do think/hope adding a RHH RF would be helpful, but unfortunately isn’t likely before ST when players can be moved to the 60 day IL. Unless the Sox make a trade, which is almost impossible to predict…
  22. notin
    Do people want the Sox to just spend more money? Or try to put together a better team? If the Sox lost out on Soto (which they did) and chose to replace their first baseman with Paul Goldschmidt and his Dominic Smith-sequence OPS+ of 98, instead of spending a portion of their Soto money on Polar Bear Pete, what would we call them? Would we predict another great year for Goldschmidt like he had back in 2022? Or more of the same league-average and rapidly plummeting production he’s had for the past two years?
  23. notin
    I’m not sure losing O’Neill is worse than downgrading from Soto to Bellinger. The Sox lost 2.4 bWAR with O’Neill but the Yankees are trying to replace a 7.9 bWAR player with a 2.2 bWAR player in Bellinger. That drop off should be so casually equated to just losing O’Neill…
  24. notin
    You’re incorrect. It’s 12-15% exactly…
  25. notin
    That buys a lot of Molson…
×
×
  • Create New...