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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    If you believe in the values on BTV, Guerrero ($1.5) and Romero ($4.2) plus a pick only works for Williams ($11.2) if the pick has a surplus of around $6mill. (It might.) Guerrero plus Hamilton ($11.2) works better and gives the Brewers an actual replacement for Adames, assuming they don’t mind shifting Brice Turang back to shortstop. They probably value Williams over that package, but with one year left on his deal and coming off a back injury, I wouldn’t go any higher, assuming I even went that high…
  2. notin
    Buzz does indicate the strong possibility of Pivetta turning down the QO, which is interesting because this might be the strongest free agent starting pitching market in quite a while. If Pivetta is really carrying all this intrigue, it’s probably because he’s viewed as the much cheaper option to Burnes/Fried/Snell/Sasaki. But if too many teams get interested, his appeal as a cheaper (yet sufficient) option should take a hit as the price/years go up…
  3. notin
    The title of the thread is BOLD predictions. We have a separate thread for realistic stuff.
  4. notin
    If I asked the difference between a 2.0 fWAR DH and a 1.5 fWAR DH, what would that be? And while it’s true, only 4 players had 500 PA as a DH, it doesn’t mean much at all and certainly doesn’t mean teams don’t employ a full time DH. Only 5 players had 500 PA as a right fielder, but I think we can agree the overwhelming majority of teams do have a full time right fielder …
  5. notin
    As of today, the Sox have only one open spot on their 40 man roster, which means one protectee and no pick. They have a few potential DFAs they need to clear out first. Candidates include Gasper, Sogard, Shugart, and Horn. Not in that order…
  6. notin
    Spend on Soto - position players, while not immune, still represent better injury risks than pitchers. Trade for a pitcher…
  7. notin
    I’m thinking Burnes wants outrageous money. Why else would he keep losing arbitration hearings even after winning a Cy Young award?
  8. notin
    Because it’s not a rarity when Pivetta pitches 130 IP in a season?
  9. notin
    1. The Red Sox acquire their new ace -Sandy Alcantara. 2. Masataka Yoshida becomes a 2.0 fWAR DH, placing him in the top 7 in the league. Larry still wants him traded ;) 3. Tanner Houck is worth 5.0 fWAR. 4. Ceddane Rafaela wins the Gold Glove for a CF and cuts his strike outs down to 25% while drawing walks 8% of the time. 5. The Sox sign Juan Soto. Go big or go home…
  10. notin
    This is a lot like what was said about Jake Arrieta when he was still in Baltimore (and I compared Pivetta to on this board back in 2020). It seems like a huge stretch to expect from Pivetta, who is now some. 4 years older than Arrieta when he had his sudden meteoric rise…
  11. notin
    Ok but Grissom is already on the 40 man roster, so he and his league-minimum salary should be on your list…
  12. notin
    If Yoshida put up 2 fWAR as a DH, he’d be among the best in MLB. Kyle Schwarber had only 3 fWAR as a DH in 670 PA. JD Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton and the recently traded Jorge Soler were all below 1 fWAR as DHs. With DHs, some perspective is needed because the position has no defensive contribution….
  13. notin
    There is a difference now. It helps on these mega-deals if a team has a supply of minimum wage talent to offset the cost of the superstar somewhat. The Sox didn’t have that in 2020. They do now. They also have fewer big exiting contracts right now. This doesn’t mean they will make a competitive offer for Soto, but they are at least in a different position to do so. The increase from Betts to Soto is massive, but had they extended Betts, they would also still have had the $93mill owed to Price, which might make up for close to maybe 40% of the gap…
  14. notin
    Is that even worth it? There’s a better chance (by a lot) that Yoshida outperforms that return. The Sox get a 40-man roster spot in that deal, and that’s it. Not even a 26 man roster spot because Yoshida does have all of his options left and can be sent to Worcester…
  15. notin
    What do the Sox get from trading Yoshida plus $50mill?
  16. notin
    In this scenario, how are the Sox acquiring Crochet? And do you suspect they will DFA Vaughn Grissom?
  17. notin
    Or Ohtani. Already in year two, there are reports he might not be back for opening day. Not to mention his two-way status is hanging by a thread-thin tendon in his elbow that puts his entire career on the mound one pitch away from an abrupt ending. Something the Dodgers knew even before negotiations started. But the Sox are at least in a similar position with lots of minimum wage talent right on the cusp of MLB that does make Soto more affordable, even if they don’t pursue him…
  18. notin
    True, but at that time Betts was among the most expensive players in MLB. Now he’s making Corey Seager money. If the argument is its irrational, then the Sox are likely out on all top tier free agents, since I don’t see Burnes or Fried signing for rational money either…
  19. notin
    I can agree Soto is probably too old for Little League…
  20. notin
    I don’t think anyone expects the Sox to sign Soto. But the premise that they cannot afford him is also a complete fallacy. I don’t expect anything more than a cursory attempt to sign him that serves two purposes. 1) Keeps that bidding elevated, if only slightly, and 2) gets that all important link to him in the media that they tried….
  21. notin
    And what are all these people who never met Juan Soto basing this on?
  22. notin
    A Betts vs Soto argument is another type of rabbit hole. But regardless of which one is better, the reality is one of those two superstars in unavailable, and this lack of availability has created some unrest among the money-paying fanbase directed solely at the owner. If Henry wants to create an unrivaled upswing in enthusiasm, no player - and definitely not Burnes nor Fried - is going to create it more than Soto. Soto is expensive, and more expensive than Betts. But the money is going up. If you don’t pay now, what are you waiting for? Does anyone think the next 26yo free agent superstar will be cheaper?
  23. notin
    I like how you casually drop in “just sign a guy like Fried” as if they’re equivalent options in both money and years. Obviously, there is something about Pivetta the Sox like enough to offer him $21mill, and if you think he’s going to decline, you’re saying other teams see it as well…
  24. notin
    If Pivetta does decline, it still didn’t mean he’s gone. The Sox have the advantage for signing him in that they don’t give up any draft pick compensation…
  25. notin
    According to many, we’re paying him to add more deadweight…
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