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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    Campbell 2b, Grissom 3b. Done. Except for the part about trading Devers …
  2. notin
    How many “4th/5th starters” made 32 starts, pitched 180 IP, and were worth 2 bWAR? He’s not a great pithcher, but he is a good one. And his durability last year has value. He won’t be part of a trade for Crochet, but that doesn’t make him worthless…
  3. notin
    You left out that Crochet has 30 more IP in his career than Crawford had last year. Plus one more TJ…
  4. notin
    A team whose fifth starter was some guy named Davis Martin. Ir maybe it was Martin Davis? Doesn’t really matter…
  5. notin
    So no one with any actual appeal in a trade. I doubt the White Sox have any interest in dealing their best pitcher for Wikelman. Crochet absolutely has question marks, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to be available for anything…
  6. notin
    And more experience as a starting pitcher…
  7. notin
    It means once they hear the dollars involved, they’re going all out the door, never to return…
  8. notin
    All BTV can do is tell you a trade is fair using their model. Their model, for example, says a trade of Crochet and Luis Robert (total surplus value $54.4mill) for Abreu and Crawford ($54.3mill) is spot on. But I seriously doubt the White Sox go for that. (Maybe they do for Abreu, Montgomery, and Arias?) I can see why they have interest in Abreu. He’s a minimum wage Gold Glove 3 WAR right fielder and last year, they had that position manned by Dominic Fletcher and Sadness…
  9. notin
    Overpay, but not as bad as I suspected. Crochet has a surplus value of $42.2mill. Dominguez has a surplus value of $25 mill. Jones has a surplus value of $33.5mill. Abreu has a surplus value of $30.3mil, putting him $28mill below the Yankee offer. Kutter Crawford ($24mill) on his own makes up a big difference. Or a combo of Braden Montgomery ($15mill) and Franklin Arias ($11.5) mill would also get you closer. A trade of Abreu and either Montgomery or Arias is close to value on BTV and worth considering. A trade of all three is far, far less favorable. For 2 arb years of Crochet, that package makes me explore other alternatives. A package of Abreu and Crawford? My first thought is “Yes! Obviously!” But second thoughts do make me wonder how much of an upgrade is Crochet over Crawford?
  10. notin
    Not yet, but it’s one of their stretch goals for 2025…
  11. notin
    Hey they didn’t get where they are by making a bunch of smart trades…
  12. notin
    Also it’s better when cited, regardless of whether or not folks agree with the model. There is a world of difference between saying “BTV says it’s a fair trade” and just saying “it’s a fair trade.” The former is a fact, while the latter is a conclusion that is subject to scrutiny…
  13. notin
    Possible. I just imagine he thinks being 36 and entering the market is much worse than being 35. Especially if he tried to enter next year after a down season…
  14. notin
    If interest in Pivetta is as reported, a 4 year $60mill contract seems light…
  15. notin
    Wacha also re-signed immediately and didn’t have multiple bidders driving up the price…
  16. notin
    I’ve gotten replies that their values are all wrong, which is egomaniacal silliness. It does work a very good percentage of the time. But do they make mistakes? Yes. Heck, as of this morning, they listed Cutter Coffey as still on the Red Sox when he was dealt to the Jays last July. But the occasional even egregious error doesn’t invalidate the entire system…
  17. notin
    1. Money? 2. Maybe his competitive spirit is such that he wants to beat the defending champs? All players want to win on some level, but all of them don’t necessarily want to ride along on someone else’s successes…
  18. notin
    The A’s also never make trades that fit that model. But BTV is good for what it’s good for - telling you a trade is fair. Its main and completely unfixable flaw is it cannot incorporate whether or not a team wants to make that trade…
  19. notin
    Other than the fantasy sites (which have an obvious difference), I don’t know of another. Of course I bet every team has their own proprietary model…
  20. notin
    859 career IP and already two TJ surgeries. Depends on the length of contract…
  21. notin
    I like BTV and many trades do work on their model. But they are just one source…
  22. notin
    If as you say they are only not re—signing him because he didn’t extend, then it’s not due to the elbow. Neither Freeman nor Swanson had similar concerns. I don’t know if they tried to extend him or not. If they never tried, the elbow might be back in play. But then it also might be due to their pitching depth…
  23. notin
    If so, it’s clearly not an elbow issue. Did they even try to extend him? They also have serious pitching depth in the upper minors, so maybe they prefer not and might save the cash to lock up Strider…
  24. notin
    Are they out on him? They still might try to re-sign him…
  25. notin
    This was probably the wrong year to opt out for Eovaldi. But as he turns 35 in January, I understand his urgency. But he’s clearly behind Burnes, Fried, Snell, and probably Sasaki. And I can see Nate, Flaherty, Buehler, Kikuchi, Manaea, Pivetta, Martinez, and Severino and probably another name or two ranked in multiple ways that both benefit and disadvantage him.
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