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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    Casas is 24 years old with over 800 career PA and an OPS+ of 125, which is almost identical to that of Devers (126). Unless he is going to have some sort of other worldly season, that lost year of control is a huge factor, especially since it’s a minimum wage one. Control is just as important as ability when trading players (and salary is right there as well).
  2. notin
    Atlanta probably won’t turn down pitching, but until the injuries kick in, they’re loaded. Sure Fried is out, but Ian Anderson is back. Followed eventually by Strider. Plus they have Spencer Schwellenbach and the guy who made the second biggest comeback in MLB last year - Reynaldo Lopez. Oh and the biggest comeback, too. They also have some top pitching prospects, like AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrop, both of whom are on the cusp. (I think AJSS saw some time last year.) Oh and some vet arms like Grant Holmes holding down the fort. Also their AAA rotation has 25yo former MLB All Star Bryce Elder. Any team with a 25yo former MLB All Star hiding out in AAA because he can’t crack the rotation might have some pretty good pitching depth. But at SS, it appears to be Orlando Arcia or former Oakland A’s batless glove Nick Allen. And that’s it…
  3. notin
    There’s a difference between misidentifying talent and signing players who get injured. So Story was a failed signing by Bloom but Sale was a successful one for DD? Seems counterintuitive. DD did have more success stories, but he signed a lot more large deals. And when forced to operate on a budget, he didn’t do so well. Comparing the jobs each one did to each other is not the same at all. Yes Bloom missed on those low impact deals like Kluber, etc. How much did those handicap the team? And why is the $40-50mill spent on those players somehow more debilitating to the Sox than the $320mill plus spent on Price/Sale/Eovadi for which the Sox received about $21 bWAR total?
  4. notin
    I’m going with the “I hate this move and it makes only marginal sense at best, so therefore they’re going to do it just to spite me” line of thinking. That kind of logic transcends money…
  5. notin
    Oh. Ok then. Carry on…
  6. notin
    Dombrowski wasn’t the only CBO capable of identifying talent, but he is the last one who was allowed to spend, at least until 2019. The payroll went down every year under Bloom (except a bump in 2022) and reached its lowest point since 2014 under Breslow. Dombrowski and Bloom could both spot talent. But only DD was allowed to pay for it…
  7. notin
    Casas isn’t worthless, but as a 1b he doesn’t have that kind of trade value. Casas straight up for Langeliers? I could see that. But not for Miller plus, or even Miller straight up. (Worth noting - Langeliers is a lousy defensive catcher and is best used at DH.) But I don’t think anyone gets dealt. And hey, stockpiling beyond your needs is page one of the Dodger playbook, that says “bring in multiple utility infielders, turn all of them into All Stars, don’t trade your homegrown players, and then move the right fielder to starting shortstop. And even after all that, bring in a Korean All Stars.”
  8. notin
    Are you impugning the baseball acumen of a fictional character along with a random blogger with no credentials??!?
  9. notin
    Absolutely he could have a great year. But one thing that is certain is if the Sox wait, he will have one less year. That said, I fully expect them to wait…
  10. notin
    I’m not so sure one depends on the other. I’m not wild about Bregman either…
  11. notin
    Casas might be more difficult to trade next year. One less year of control and entering his arb years. Easier to deal a player making $30-35mill over the next 4 years than one making $30-35mill over the next 3 …
  12. notin
    I don’t think there is as much there as you think. Devers is locked in to one of the 4 spots. As is Story, although as locks go, he’s not one of those ones you shoot with a gun in a commercial, if you get my drift (and arcane reference). Romy and Hamilton are not so much part of the starting four infield spots, either. They shouldn’t be counted. (And Romy might be a DFA candidate.) So with two “locks”, that leaves two spots for Bregman, Casas, Mayer, Grissom, and Campbell. Casas has refused an extension. His time might be short. And the addition of Bregman might push someone into a DH role. That leaves the prospect bunch (Grissom, Campbell, Mayer) potentially fighting for one spot, unless there are injuries or trades…
  13. notin
    I think the rotation is set, too. I was responding to a comment that there was no one left in free agency that represented an improvement.
  14. notin
    It seems like the Sox are counting on that. What worries me is the disconnect regarding Bregman’s position….
  15. notin
    I have faith in them making unwise expenditures for show. See Devers, Rafael. I’m also not sure how much Bregman will sign for. As he is already 31, he might not be all too eager for a “prove it” contract…
  16. notin
    No. But if everything has to make justifiable sense, making no moves becomes a lot more understandable. Bregman’s fit is better than I want to admit, as he can start off as a stopgap at 2b and then move into 3b to help upgrade the corner INF/DH mess, which gets further clarified if the Sox can ever move Yoshida or Casas. (Yoshida does have 3 options left; Worcester isn’t out of the picture for him.) It’s entirely possible Bregman could even fill in at SS in the event of another Story injury, although Rafaela makes more sense to do so. Bregman himself is looking at limited options. Detroit might be interested, but they also have their own top prospect Jace Jung who happens to play 3b and made his MLB debut last year. Not sure what other teams might be interested. I suppose Toronto, but their interest in free agents is getting comical…
  17. notin
    Your 2025 Red Sox (opening day, barring injuries) This is a prediction; not a wish list. In fact, quite far from a wish list. C: Wong 1b: Casas 2b: Bregman 3b: Devers SS: Story LF: Duran CF: Rafaela RF: Abreu/Refsnyder DH: Yoshida/Romy Gonzalez BN: Narvaez, Hamilton SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler, Giolito RP: Hendriks, Slaten, Chapman, Whitlock, Wilson, Winckowski, Guerrero, Crawford
  18. notin
    The Sox will sign him to play 2b over Grissom/ Hamilton/Campbell. I think they’re hoping to offload Yoshida first, but as there will be minimal interest, and since Cora rarely cares about defense anyway (although surprisingly said Rafaela will play CF as much as possible), the Sox at 2b are a rare remaining fit for Bregman. Unless the Dodgers finally realize Max Muncy looks like an oversized garden gnome with self control issues, and decides Bregman is a better fit at 3b. I know it blocks Campbell but 1) if Campbell doesn’t take the job anyway, who gets helped by holding the position for him, and 2) it really doesn’t block Campbell, since Bregman is very likely to shift back to 3b at some point in the near future…
  19. notin
    Especially just for one C…
  20. notin
    Cartaya was a BA Top 100 prospect as recently as 2023. He will be traded, not released. Also his defensive play is questionable. I could understand trading for him, as the Sox only have two. Per BTV, Cartaya might cost Nazzan Zanatello…
  21. notin
    I think they’re going to sign Bregman…
  22. notin
    Then he can be optioned. It’s not really a big deal, and I have my doubts as to the overall importance concerning which one breaks camp as the utility infielder…
  23. notin
    It’s pretty unlikely any of Grissom, Hamilton or Romy takes over 2b and runs with uh, although Campbell might. But this is just a guess until that situation sorts itself out…
  24. notin
    It allows Boston to retain both players…
  25. notin
    Because everyone in MLB wins 40-60% of their games, so .500 predictions mean more with tighter ranges of +/-. You’re getting handed a 20% range to begin with, and a prediction of .500 with that range cuts into 20% of it. Also you didn’t say who…
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