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Everything posted by notin
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So you're saying that if the Sox sign a DH, they should keep Brentz on the 25 man roster on the off-chance he will be the first player in MLB history to spend that much time in the minors and actually maintain his power, which will be on the bench anyway? And in order to keep Brentz, the Sox will instead have to DFA someone else. So who? It could be Holt but then you're paying him $2mill to play for someone else and he didn't need to occupy a 25 man roster spot. Who should they DFA? Swihart? Johnson? A different pitcher? Lin? Bear in mind that Marrero likely gets DFAd once Nunez signs....
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It's not about blame. It's about cause, effect, and learning curves. Why is it always about blame?
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I'm trying to tell you he is a DFA cnadidate and it isn't just the age factor; it's a combination of hi age, lack of options, learning curve, and injury history that make him one. It's not so much about whether or not he "deserves a shot." Does he deserve to be on the 25 man roster over any of the other candidates? Does he deserve it more than Heranandez? Holt? Swihart?
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Holt has very little upside but he can spend it in Pawtucket. Brentz, Leon and Swihart cannot. I do doubt Leon is a DFA candidate, as that would mean either Swihart is the BUC or they have to add another player anyway. And since Leon is a good defensive catcher, might as well keep him even though he will never hit again like he did in 2016...
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I think the option is a huge difference, and his power numbers are inconsequential since it's a backup role, and he really only backs up two guys, Swihart also has no topions, but is being tried at 4 or 5 different positions. Swihart's limited success in some small stints in MLB probably also helps his case. But I think the versatility is a bigger deal. As fornot caring that Brentz sucess came in in AAA, that's only part of the issue,and a very small part. He also did not have them until his sixth season in AAA at age 28. THAT is a bigger deal and speaks to his ability to adjust. I know he missed parts of a season here and there, but let's be realistic. We are traling about SIX YEARS to adjust to MiLB pitching. How many will it take to adjust to MLB pitching? If you want to use his injuries as an excuse for adjusting to AAA pitching, can you promise me he won't get injured in the majors?
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Some of these underperformanes seemed to be attributable to Stat Cast. Betts looked like he had more of an upper cut swing and his strikeouts increased by almost exactly the same amount his OBP decreased. Was he adjusting his launch angle, per Stat Cast recommendations? If so, there can be an adjustment period for a hitter while he learns to time things better...
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As opposed to the "Career Season in the Minors" factor? Don't forget. One advantage Holt gives you is he can be sent to Pawtucket. That is a big deal. Brentz cannot be sent to Pawtucket. Holt is a DFA candidate as well, but I think his option gives him an advantage over Brentz...
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The point was there i no pint for Oakland to actually trade and give up anything for Brentz. They can wait until he is DFA'd and make the first (and successful) claim. If they trade anything for a player they can have for free a couple days later, they did not buy low. (And anyway, given that Brentz is coming off a career year, isn't this his his value ia likely at it's highest?) Of course I think any team acquiring Brentz would prefer letting him clear waivers as opposed to claiming or trading for him. That way they can sign him to an MiLB deal and are not forced to keep him on the 25 man roster. But unless Dombrowski reset the LRT in order to bring back Moreland and Nunez, the Sox are going to have to DFA two players at some point. If Brentz isn't one of them, who is? (I think Brentz and Marrero are givens here. But apparently Brentz has a fanbase who thinks the Sox need to keep him on the 25 man roster.)
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The fact remains one player on the 40 man roster DEFINITELY has to go somewhere. And unless Dombrowski reset the luxury tax in order to achieve a status quo roster, two players definitely have to go somewhere. Trades coul happen but are unlikely. They can take too long and, really what are the Sox going to get for Holt at this point? The goal of trading is to improve the team or organization. Is keeping Brentz over Holt going to accomplish that? If Brentz is so much better, isn't he a better trade candidate? Also not sure why people think Brentz, a DFA candidate with no options, has any trade value to Oakland, who has the first waiver claim
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No need to set any sort of timetable. If he's ready in July, he comes back in July. If he's ready in May, he comes back in May. If he isn't ready until September, he comes back in September. ...
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Chavis can barely handle 3B and you want to move him to a position that requires more mobility? Dombrowski did buy Pedroia more recovery time this week by signing Nunez, so this is no longer the issue it has been all off-season...
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Apparently Abad signed a minor league deal with the Phillies. That explains why Dombrowski didn't bring him back. DD doesn't do minor league deals...
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Is that an actual problem or just your theory?
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He wasn't on the Sox last year. Dombrowski is only re - signing players ay this time. I bet he is calling Fernando Abad's agent right now..
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Blaming Farrell for two early playoff exits is silly. Both teams went on to the World Series, and the one that didn't win it all lost in extra innings in game 7. Is Farrell also at fault for the ALCS successes from Cleveland and Houston? And their world series wins? The Sox ran into teams playing better.
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His first half OPS for his career - .771 His second half OPS for his career - .721 So he has hit better in the first half, but not substantially better. A lot of it could be he is simply healthier in the first halves of seasons....
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Even if he was just 27, it does seem to greatly reduce his chances. And it's not like they tried to convert him to a pitcher because his hitting was already perfect. Chances are that move was made because they had more faith in his arm than his bat....
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After some mild research, the best rookie to start his career at age 29 or later (not counting Negro League or players who played in foreign leagues such as Japan and Cuba) was George Watkins. In his age 30 season, Watkins came up for the Cardinals and hit .373/.415/.621 for an OPS of 1.036. He did only hit 17 home runs, which would be his career high. Watkins played for 7 seasons in the majors. But he also did not start his minor league career until age 25 for reasons I don't know. So he never managed the 21HR estimate for Brentz. How rare is it? Watkins debuted in 1930. 88 years ago, when bosoxmal was in first grade...
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But he was in the majors for years before that, playing 130 games for the Twins at age 24...
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I would bet well under that total. He only exceeded 21 HRs in the minors one time above A ball. And that was in his sixth season in AAA...
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I said his chances were only slightly better. I'm at a flat 0%. He's around 1%, plus or minus. So we're close...
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I can't think of any. Evan Gattis and Josh Hamilton debuted at age 26 and both went on to hit many home runs. But both also missed minor league time to spend some time in drug rehabs...
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Even Daubach was younger and never hit that many home runs...
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He might not be grabbed so quickly, since he has no options left. He will possibly et a minor league deal, but considering there are still better outfielders on the market, it might not be as quick as you think. I'd also bet against him as a productive hitter, outside of maybe a little BABIP-fueled hot streak, which will be followed by prolonged unproductivity... (Is that a word?)
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Bear in mind Brentz and Barfield have a skill of hitting minor league pitching out of the park. And both of them took a long time to develop that skill. The jump to MLB is much more difficult, and if they take as long to learn to hit MLB pitching as both did to learn to hit AAA pitching (a skill Barfield still doesn't have), both will be in their mid-30's. These are two ships that have sailed. Barfield might be invited to camp, but his chances of making the team are not much better than mine...
