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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    Yes but are they human beings whose ability to handle pressure is beyond what you and I understand? What do you think of as big pressure moments?
  2. notin
    I like the start of that definition. Of course, it does require some sort of definition of high pressure situations. Bellhorn gave a good starting point that games in April have less pressure that games in September. Technically that only applies to good teams, since bad teams are still in the race in April. But I get the idea. I can work with "replicating normal performance." I disagree on the point about LHP. But maybe that's all part of the high pressure situation...
  3. notin
    That is an excellent point. However, and do give this some thought before answering, if we are talking about a hitter who excels in the clutch, does it matter? Isn't part of clutch hitting the the opposing team makes it as tough as they csn? I guess we really do need a definition of a clutch hitter. ...
  4. notin
    There is a big difference in getting a clutch hit and being a clutch hitter. Francisco Cabrera got one of the biggest clutch hits in Braves history. That never made him a guy they wanted up in key situations. The problem with proving or disproving the existence of a clutch hitter is the lack of any actual definition - especially one that does not contain the word "clutch." But if anyone ever makes one, it had to include David Ortiz. That goes without argument. Last season Ortiz had an OPS Off 1.021. In innings 7-9, his OPS was 1.046. Basically the same. But in Late and Close situations as defined by B-R, his OPS was .903. Still awesome but a little worse. So did Ortiz come through better"in the clutch"? Or was he just an awesome hitter who got some very big hits based on his hitting ability?
  5. notin
    Even if the guy with 28 hits takes 200ABs to get them while the guy with 24 only needs 100? A batting average already is a percentage in decimal form. All you're trying to do is modify the percentage difference from another percentage. If one Player A hit .280 and another hit .240, do you argue Player A was 40 points better? Or not?
  6. notin
    You mean the players and coaches that you never talk to and who only speak to the media in cliches?
  7. notin
    The Guardians were also without their best hitter in Michael Brantley last year. And spent a good chunk of the season without 2 of their best starting pitchers, plus the entire post-season. I didn't compare Texas to Boston. I said the AL West should be easier for them than the AL East should be for Boston. The mere act of being more likely to be in the post-season should make for them to have better odds. Too many fans seem to like sleeping on Toronto and think the AL East is already locked up...
  8. notin
    Just so you know, when you move the baseline like this, you're ignoring that hitters make outs, which is the overwhelming majority of their at-bats and the entire point....
  9. notin
    No. At 1% and 5% chances of victory, chances are very high you lose both bets...
  10. notin
    Are you trying to say the 1.4 rpg is a result solely of batting average? And not the 40 more home runs the Sox hit or the higher team slugging and team walks? We are talking about batting average ranges here...
  11. notin
    But you changed it to a relative baseline. That's like saying a player batting .010 is twice as good as a batter hitting .005. The reality both are equally ineffective...
  12. notin
    If I had to put money on one team in the AL, Cleveland is the easy choice. I'd put Boston as equal to Texas, whose in a weaker division and therefore more of a shoo-in to make the post-season already. But none of that means a thing to the Red Sox ..
  13. notin
    Or he thought that little of Andy Dirks offense that Dombrowski figured he needed to get him out of the lineup. I wouldn't blame him there. I'd take Iglesias' glove over Dirks' bat any day. But that doesn't mean defense was the primary factor in that decision. (Not to mention, technically it was Leyland putting Peralta in left and Iglesias at short, and not Dombrowski. )
  14. notin
    Not funny math. If you were gambling, the 5% outcome is the smarter bet, but would you put 5 times as much on it?
  15. notin
    You're talking about 600 plate appearances vs 15,000 to make that difference. And over that stretch it was still less than 1.5 runs per game...
  16. notin
    Only comparatively, which is immaterial and misleading.
  17. notin
    His trade for Iglesias probably never happens if Peralta, who can hit a little, doesn't test positive foe PEDs
  18. notin
    His use of Laird as a one season stopgap doesn't convince me of his commitment to defense. And his use of Swihart last year over the temps in LF just confirms this..
  19. notin
    If he's a Sox prospect that's in demand and still with the team, they clearly want him as part of the future. The Sox didn't unload all those lower level guys like Basabe and Dubon when Swihart would have worked just as well, unless they liked Swihart. And for those who think his defense won't cut it, wake up. The Sox are being run by a man who once moved Miguel Cabrera back to third base in order to accomodate Victor Martinez at DH (while Martinez was already out for the year, no less). The only "defense" Dombrowski cares about is the one Sox batters hit da ball over...
  20. notin
    Actually beyond just the randomness, baseball is about a very limited range that most fans don't seem to think about. A player who hits .280 is considered successful, while a player who hits .240 is considered ineffective and certainly not someone you want up at a key moment. Yet that is a whopping 4% difference in success. Where else do people put the difference between good and bad in such a tight range. The 570 some hitters in MLB will see an overwhelming majority succeed between 20% of the time and 30% of the time. And those outside this tight range won't be outside it by much. No one is going to hit .684 this year. So with this tight range in mind, not to mention the drift we are seeing in the definition of "clutch", it is looking more and more like an illusion.
  21. notin
    Dave Henderson was the one and only Hendu. And he would be as immortal as Dave Roberts in Boston if not for passed balls and groundballs...
  22. notin
    Hal Goldsmith
  23. notin
    It did seem like too many fans thought that team could win with any manager and those titles were a given. I don't know why they thought it was such a cinch, when many of them claim to have been fans for Sox teams that I thought were easily as good or better than the 2004 team. Francona never got credit because fans like over managers. They won't admit it, but a lot of fans really think a manager needs to be calling for bunts, steals and hit and run plays all the time or he isn't doing his job. A lot of them also think a manager isn't doing his job if a pitcher gives up two hard hit balls in one inning without being replaced, snd they think s good manager can turn a bad bullpen into a good onr by using pitchets right (or, more accurately, by not using guys wrong.)
  24. notin
    Henderson is a big part of the reason stolen bases are overrated, since he was the headliner in yhat 1980's movement in baseball that emphasized leadoff hitters, speed and steals. But the guy is the all time leader in steals, runs scored, and is second in walks. How many other players are in the top two in three different all time categories?
  25. notin
    Nothing against Sam Travis, but Dombrowski would be insane to simply pass on Encarnacion to accomodate the prospect. Financially it makes sense. Historically Dombrowski trades prospects before he clears paths for them. If he liked Travis that much, he'd probably have traded him too...
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