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Everything posted by notin
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Funny story. Per MLBTR, the Red Sox are reportedly looking into acquiring a "Buchholz-type" pitcher and the list of candidates could potentially include Buchholz himself. It seems Rodriguez' knee tweak has already depleted the Sox depth at starting pitcher. Historically, Dombrowski has shown he does two things as a GM. He gets star players. And he ignores pitching depth...
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At some you need to acknowledge you're trying to seperate a 20% chance of success from a 30% chance of success and acting like this isn't the most minute of ranges to judge a player on.
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I'd be willing to bet Ortiz' regular season numbers in most cases don't differ from his regular season numbers against those same teams. And he does face a lot of thr "backend" guys in the post-season because, by the end of the season, injuries have bumped many of those guys to the front...
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Ortiz had a career .956 OPS with Boston anda career .947 OPS in the post-season. The myth of his post-season success is rooted in the fact that he is a really, really good hitter who hit the same in the post-season as he did in the regular season. But the hits in the post-season are more memorable in many cases. The reason Papi is a post-season hero is that he is also a regular season hero...
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The worst stat ever to evaluate a pitcher is ERA. Too much of it is dependant on other players, and its universal acceptance as the ultimate evaluator pitchers is simply due to laziness. (I use it myself a lot. It's easy, accepted and understood.) I like FIP and K/BB because at least these are things the pitcher can control. Fangraphs has some excellent stats like Zone% and Contact% which, when combined properly, can show you some real hidden gem pitchers ready to break out. Toying around with those was when I found Danny Salazar was surprisingly good after last season, like really surprisingly good. Like one of the best pitchers in baseball good. And he started out that way this year before getting hurt.
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Not only too small. but more importantly spread out over too many years. It's bad enough to evaluate a guy on 70IP, but to do so on 70IP speard out over 8 seasons flies in the face of the exact human factor people are saying it is proof of. If you want to cite these types of things as proof of choke or inability to perform under pressure, then you have to acknowledge that over time, Price, or any player is not the same person and has grown somewhat. And even f that player continues not to perform, it becomes less likely it is simply "choking" and more likely that it is just poor timing, bad luck, and small sample sizes. Therefore long term post-season failures actually are more likely attributable to randomness. Although as teams in the post-season do tend to be better level of talent, we cannot eliminate them having good days, too...
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It's really not hard to contend Leon is a bad hitter who spent a big chunk of last year just being very lucky. At the time he was hit, his BABIP was an absurdly high. .440. No one gets hits on 44% of the balls they put in play based on skill...
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What were your thoughts on the season Sandy Leon had last year?
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While I don't know if is provable, I think randomness plays a larger part than you realize. Sure players make adjustments, and sometimes these work. Of course some of them are nonsensical. ("These batting gloves have NO HITS LEFT IN THEM.") With a lot of players, superstition and routines are big factors. But really, if Wade Boggs switched to beef and it got him out of a slump, would we really credit the beef? Or just realize the slump was probably bad luck?
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I do think there is a very big difference between"high strikeout rate" and "high strikeout rate and low walk rate." And that difference puts us squarely in JoeBrady Country. I don't think he ever cited a pitching stat except K/BB...
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The mental approach I agree with. Baseball players might be the most superstitious people on the planet. But sometimes guys are lucky or unlucky. And sometimes it is blatantly noticeable and should be very obvious. On BDC I noticed a couple players whose stats clearly were not living up to their play. And while many were deriding these guys (Nava and Buchholz), I predicted bold turnarounds with startling accuracy and tried not to pat myself on the back for how incredibly I nailed them both. (I failed then and clearly still am.) That was all done with noticing good at bats that should have produced more hits and crunching BABIP numbers. Or less hits, when I did the same thing for Buchholz...
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Randomness is a huge factor plenty of times. When I used to coach, I'd remind the kids that you can do everything right and still not have it work out. Next time you're watching MLB Tonight and they do the Web Gems highlighting the fielders, sometime try and take note of the hitters. I remember one year being shocked at how many times Mark Kotsay was featured on Web Gems as the hitter being "gemmed". What adjustment was he supposed to make? Hit balls even tougher to make a play on?
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Darren O'Day also has issues wIth him.
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I was referring to signing Bautista as a non-issue . I don't think it's going to happen. Not sure Dombrowski thinks he's an improvement over the current roster...
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True unless "all in" meant "all in up to the tax limit"
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I tend to think given Dombrowski's history, the pick is less of a factor then his personal or staff's opinion of Bautista. This argument, while informative to me, is probably a non-issue...
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Agree 100%. I was going to comment on the misapplication and inability to resolve then outcomes on this thread, but I let it ride and found an answer I might have posted myself (although possibly using even more words). We all misspoke statistics at one time another for arguments/counterpoint. But such is the nature of baseball and stats. Even as much as I eschew certain evaluation techniques like the "eye test", I still use it myself and knowingly make the exact same mistakes I know are built into it.
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Picking up Sale, Kimbrel and Thornburg cost the Sox 6 players likely to be in the BA Top 100. One late first round pick isn't going to restock the farm. So is Dombrowski all in or not? It's actually very possible he just doesn't think Bautista is very good any more and last year where his overall play was basically a wash with Moreland (as both would fit on the Sox) is likely to be his immediate future. If so, the lineup is pretty much set. However that does limit message board topics between now and February. ..
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what all star break?!?! 2016 or 2017?!??!
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Based on last season, it's practically a wash. Moreland was worth 12 DRS more than Hanley, who would shift to 1b. And Bautista was worth 13 Runs Created more than Moreland. However on average Bautista is typically worth about 42 RC over what Moreland was worth last season. While not likely Bautista tops him by so much agsin, it does come down to how much faith Dombrowski would have in Bautista bouncing back. If history is any indication, Dombrowski probably believes in Bautista. He does tend to ignore age for superstar players. ...
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Exactly. I don't think this idea comes down to Rodriguez vs Abad or Rodriguez vs Hembree. There are plenty of bullpen improvements still available. The Sox could trade or release either or both of Abad or Hembree and sign a body or two from the set of Holland, Storen, Hochevar, Petit, Romo, or David Herandez and still have the same depth...
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Any interest in Bautista will likely come in late January when he is more desperate. While his agent might be proposing the Stephen Drew/Kendrys's Morales route, both Bautista and hos agent have likely seen how badly that has worked out before...
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I started a post about Bautista a few weeks back and the response was almost universally"he's not a good fit," which I'm not sure exactly what that means. While he may never be the dominant hitter he was prior to 2016, he is certainly an upgrade over Moreland. Financially the Sox could fit him into tje budget by including an insanely low player (not team) option, as player options are automatically assumed when calculating AAV* However it would still require Bautista to accept a short term pillow contract. The loss of a draft pick is a concern, but less of one as it is a late round pick. If the Sox are "all in" to the point of dealing away Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Shaw, Diaz and Dubon, why would a late first round pick suddenly be a deal breaker?
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Because over their careers Wright has been the better starter and Pomeranz has been the better reliever...
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1. It doesn't mean he is right. Frankly I think its stupid to name your rotation in December. A lot can happen over the next four months. 3. Clearly this topic bothers you on some level. Feel free to start another.
