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Everything posted by notin
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Yes, although Hanley got off to an amazing start in 2015 before banging up his shoulder. Had he not done that, his 2015 might have been better than his 2016. But yes, players do have wide fluctuations in performance. But really, these wide fluctuations still encompass a very small range....
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At this poiin the off-season, I would want the Sox to stockpile pitching depth for both the rotation and the bullpen. Pitchers like these are upgrades, but do not help in depth. While upgrades are certainly good, waiting until July when needs are easily identifiable does make some sense...
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Absolutely true. Just like I don't feel exactly the same every day, I don't see how athletes can't wake up with a sore ankle or a headache and we expect it to NOT be a factor in hitting a 95mph fastball. It's just a headache, right? We're close to the same page with our defonitions. I have a way of measuring that luck, which may or may not be accurate. But to me, hard work and increased skill still only allows for success with certain parameters. Which is why I think Sandy Leon was very lucky last year and not likely to repeat...
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Conversely I never said streaks were solely a function of randomness, a term on which wr do not agree on the definition. However over the large scale of a season, yes there will very likely be a random element that clusters the streak together. But I have noticed that typically for many cold streak there is an equalizing hot streak (and the reverse is also true). So if this the case, then players typically play up to (or down to) their talent level. And whether they go 12 for 25 and follow it up with 0 for 15, or they go 12 for 40 getting exactly 3 hits every 10 at-bats, is usually a function of randomness...
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Fair question. To me it would be excessive successes beyond what the batter can control. I wouldn't consider home runs random. But far greater success on groundballs and flyballs. Basically if a hitter's BABIP greatly exceeds his xBABIP, I would consider that a product of randomness. Ok. Your turn...
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For someone who whines when someone else "puts words in their mouth", you sure are quick and proud to do the same yourself. No one said that the work doesn't pay off or that there are no variations in talent level. But yes, sometimes players do have hit streaks that are not based on skill and skill alone, and this goes beyond the occasional bloop single.
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So he started making hard contact less often and brought himself DOWN to a .362 BABIP on ground balls? Imagine how high hus BABIP must have been before. And while pitchers do make adjustments and the word spreads, let's be realistic. Leon fell off a cliff. Is the argument thay nearly EVERY pitcher in the AL made the same adjustments against Leon and nearly everyone was successful? That's a big coincidence to swallow. Real big. Or... Maybe Leon was just lucky alot for a long time. He hit grounders where fielders weren't, and when he hit them at fielders, the infielders were inadequate. It wasn't all bloop hits and grounders with eyes for Leon. But he most definitely was lucky. And had a career year based on some ramdomness. ..
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So are you saying Leon smoked a lot of grounders past infielders and then suddenly forgot how? He was 50% above league average in this regard. Fifty percent higher, which is an insanea mount higher given the abysmally tight range that is MLB batting averages. Doesn't strike you as "lucky"?
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But what about luck that isn't obvious? Like Sandy Leon last year? Was he using applied skill? He helped himself with an absurdly high BABIP on ground balls for a guy with no speed. Luck or applied skill?
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No one is putting words in your mouth, especially with questions. But I do want your definition of randomness as it applies to baseball. I'm willing to bet a few people are arguing over the same points and only differing on terminology....
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What is randomness to you?
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So therefore nothing in baseball is ever truly random?
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I have to wonder at some point how the anti-randomness people are defining "randomness"...
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Still like the idea of Pomeranz in the pen, especially over Wright. But then we'd really need a starter.
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The idea of Kelly pitching AAA originated at Soxprospects.com. While it did help find roster spots for everyone, I don't think anyone felt it was a good idea beyond the casual mention. ..
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Well he hasn't played in the post-season yet.
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I have to agree wins and saves are worse. My bad. But ERA in my opinion is overused, relied on heavily and often misunderstood. It might be the least reliable stat for evaluating a pitcher after wins, etc. Yet I'll probably continue using it, because it's relatable. ..
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Interestingly, it came right after a series where he got on base on 7 times in 25 plate appearances (.280 OBP) against Detroit. Are we too believe he got that much better in one week and no randomness was involved?
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Yes the initial post started out by saying an 0 for 20 hitter's chances are not determined by the poor streak. My position is that the previous hot/cold streak can be used as a predictor, but not by using batting average, which is what people use to define hot and cold streaks. BABIP, which tells you about the contact, is what more useful in this regard. And translating BABIP to batting average can be a result of randomness, especially in small sample sizes.
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Absolutely. If they are better than Owens Johnson, mission accomplished. If not, they are only minor league contracts. And there is no such thing as a bad minor league contract...
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The Sox did usually have a few MLB ready starters under Cherington. Many were unexciting guys like Doubront or Workman or De La Rosa. I don't expect All Stars coming up from AAA, or even every call up to succeed. But I do expect sufficient depth that there is a better chance of success from one or two arms. Unlike last year. This isn't about building the farm. This is about the types of guys that are available every year for minor league deals, and are usually the types of deals many fans deride as looking for "lightning in a bottle" when they are necessary depth...
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The initial posit of "randomness" was that it could be used to explain streaks. You're moving the goal posts...
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I do think the Sox need to sign some of the mediocre and oft-injured guys o minor league deals. Guys I think might accept them include Dillon Gee, Kris Medlen, Vance Worley, Ross Detwiler, and Lucas Harrell. Rubby De La Rosa is another guy who might, but will probably get real major league interest due to his age. Jorge De La Rosa would be an awesome get if he accepted one and returned to the Red Sox organization...
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The Sox don't need Plouffe, and Fister is one of those guys more likely to try and get an MLB deal. He may not, but he probably won't settle for a MiLB deal until later this month...
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I prefer Owens to Johnson, but it's somewhat similar to the same way I prefer influenza to pneumonia...
