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Well, the “not paying” part is really our interpretation of how this off-season is going to go. It doesn’t look like Henry is going to have an unlimited budget and it does look like Dombrowski is going to prioritize Eovaldi. I’ve always figured Eovaldi was Plan A and Kimbrel is Plan B, but it doesn’t look like both plans can happen simultaneously for purely financial reasons. That said, if we’re going to determine the cost of not having a closer, these rudimentary small sample size postseason-only techniques shouldn’t be how a closer gets evaluated. Per your argument, Familia can come into a game with the tying run in scoring position and no one out, induce 3 infield grounders that allow the run to score, and receive a label of not getting the job done. But Kimbrel can come in with a 2 run lead, walk the bases loaded, and escape because Andrew Benintendi made a catch he had no business making, and Kimbrel is clearly the guy. After all, he got the job done. If the Sox do sign a closer, there are numerous free agents available with experience, not just Kimbrel. Familia is one of the better ones and his 9ph fastball is certainly a trait Dombrowski has historically coveted in any pitcher (like Eovaldi and Brasier, for example). But the failures of his defense and manager back in 2015 don’t make him a “discount closer” destined to fail in the postseason...

Based on what? Our minor league starters that are likely to make appearances in 2019 include no ranked prospects (which other teams will have) and no one in the top ten of the Sox own farm system, which has been universally rated as one of the worst systems in the game today. The rotation in Pawtucket figures to have two 30+ yo career minor leaguers and very, very little MLB experience, let alone success...

It’s not a slavish devotion to Jamesian philosophy as much as it is a strong belief that Henry isn’t going to ignore economic realities, which he has shown in the very recent past he does not like to do. Not to mention the revised history that the Sox have ever gone into a season thinking “any schmuck can close” and been proven wrong. (The 2003 closer-by-committee experiment actually provided good results in ninth inning situations with only 3 lost leads in the ninth in a 54 game stretch, resulting in 2 losses). Bringing Kimbrel back is extremely likely to put a hole in the rotation, one only you think can be filled by Brian Johnson. The Sox seem to be prioritizing the rotation, and specifically Eovaldi. This very likely means they don’t want to pay Kimbrel...

3 blown saves and as you said, he was hurt by his defense. And in another of those blown saves, he faced 3 hitters and induced 3 groundouts. Is that blown save really his fault?

So his 0.600 WHIP and 1 ER in the World Series 4 years ago is a disqualifier?

Kela is a more likely option than LeClerc, since he is already making arbitration money and therefore more likely to be moved for less. Jimenez, Steckenrider and Garnett are all pre-arb and might not be as easy to acquire...

I don’t have much confidence Johnson is with the Sox in 2019. He’s cheap and comtrollable, but those seem to be his primary skills. And while being left-handed is sometimes a sought-after commodity, he’s on the one team that doesn’t need LHSP. His value in the bullpen is also mitigated because he isn’t a prototypical side-arming LOOGY who specializes is getting out left-handed hitters and the league-wide strategy of deploying the shift has mitigated the need for that type of specialist. His roster spot is probably more needed to replace some of the 125 IP the Sox have lost from the bullpen. And while the Sox need starter depth (like every team), they need it to come from AAA where it doesn’t create other voids. Johnson does have some trade value, largely due to his low salary and MLB experience. A team like Seattle that’s shedding payroll might be willing to take him on as part of a trade. I could see the Sox dealing Johnson and either Chavis or Dalbec for Colome to help fill the void left by Kimbrel and Kelly. LeClerc is Texas is another candidate...

Johnson was out of options last year too...

The Sox do need depth starters, but it’s not the same when you pull them out of the bullpen...

I don’t think either one is a huge loss. I could see either in a trade here...

There are numerous free agent closers available and DD will look at all of them plus other opportunities...

Something along those lines. I do figure if the Sox trade any prospect this off-season, Dalbec has to be the front runner. With Devers in MLB, he’s expendable. The same can be said for Chavis, but I’m hoping the Sox can hold some MiLB talent...

I don’t think Seattle is looking for a volume of optionless players with fringe MLB talent. Colome is very likely on the Sox radar to acquire and the Mariners’ radar to move, so a match is possible. But at some point, they need at the very least, a supplemental building block or a reasonable prospect. Maybe they like Johnson. Maybe they even like Swihart. But I think the Sox need to add something longer term than Hembree. Houck? Sharwyn? Ockimey? Or maybe they just trade Dalbec straight up for him...

Devers and Benintendi are under control anyway. The Sox will have to make decisions on Bogaerts, Sale, Porcello, and Martinez at season’s end to see whose back...

Or first. The Betts-Benintendi 1-2 punch did lead to a World Series title...

Which means I becomes a question of performance vs safety. Porcello is only 3 months older than Sale but has proven much more durable. Sale is far and away better, but has shown an element of risk in a long term deal.

The PED thing is so overblown. In many cases, it wasn’t even against the rules. It does really need to be ignored for a lot of these players...

Actually the Yankees appear to be unwilling to do “whatever it takes.” If they were to do whatever it takes - like Dombrowski does - that farm system would be a lot emptier and that rotation and bullpen a lot more full. Cashman might try to go all in, but sometimes he has Cherington’s Disease and doesn’t want to part with prospects. It may or may not work out in the long run for NY, but it is tougher to compete with Boston in 2019 if he sticks to this half-measures approach...

Rumor has it DD is leaning that way...

Cora seemed to like Bogaerts in the fifth spot. The third spot is wide open. Most likely the status quo approach with Moreland/Pearce. But if the Sox can get a three hitter - and why not Pedroia - it stretches the lineup that much more...

I figure DD will bring back either Eovaldi or Kimbrel, but probably not both (although maybe). The Sox need Kimbrel more in 2019 but will probably need Eovaldi more in 2020 and after...

Eh. I look at Johnson as a borderline starter that could and should be upgraded...

The thing is, letting Mookie walk might enable the Sox to keep Xander and Bradley and maybe keep up the arbitration payments on Benintendi. So while the idea seems crazy, the alternatives can still be pretty good...

Is putting a .370 OBP up in front of JDM and X really a bad suggestion? By the end of the year,Moreland and Pearce were hitting there...

It’s no biggie finding someone who’d take Hembree and Johnson. But for that package the Sox would need to find a team with no definitive catcher and a fifth starter who is or is about to get a little too pricey...