notin
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Everything posted by notin
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Again, if the Sox need bullpen depth, they’re going to demote before DFA. When pitchers start coming back, the first moves will be to demote Smith, Weber, and/or Brewer. DFAing Thornburg does nothing since Dombrowski has been hesitant to add a Major League arm with any sort of track record anyway...
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17 innings is enough? He might never come around, but I think a lot of people underestimate how far he has come back from a very difficult problem...
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He is leaving starters in beyond limits we see much later in the year...
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Big difference between deciding to do it and being required to do it...
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We have one person arguing Vazquez needs to be in the lineup everyday, unlike Moreland. Vazquez does have a higher BA, but only 5 more hits and half as many home runs. And in only 18 fewer at bats, which is about 2 per week at this point in the season...
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The only good thing about BA is that it’s readily understood and relatable, but this also has lead to some of the worst misconceptions in baseball. And the widespread acceptance of the fact that it lumps every hitter into a very tight range and the excuses people make for this is an immense part of those misconceptions. Even if WAR is too complicated, OBP and SLG are far more informative than BA. Of course, SLG has some of the same stupid exceptions as BA...
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The Sox will demote before DFA. Brewer, for example, has options left. He isn’t getting DFAd. But he might go to Pawtucket.
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OBP > Batting Average OBP is essentially the “percentage of times the hitter does not make an out.” And it doesn’t have any of the stupid exceptions batting average has...
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There’s a big difference between a 2 run single and a 2 run home run. You can’t hit a 2 run single with one man on base...
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Batting average tells you everyone basically hits the same. You draw the conclusions on your own. But the reality the the difference between a .280 hitter and a .240 hitter is not that great. One hit every 25 at bats. Over 6 months, that’s only 20 hits. Batting average tells you the whole league gets hits between 20 and 30 percent of the time. That you interpret this to be a wide range is a greater indication of the actual flaw in the stat. By your own admission, small differences show a wide range of ability. That’s an indication of a problem in any type of measuring system. If you took a class in school and the teacher said “This test is worth 100 points, and if you score 90% you get an A, 87% is a B, 84 % is a C and anything below 80% and you fail and have to repeat the class and the teaching staff will bully you on Instagram,” wouldn’t you wonder why that tight range encompassed such a wide variety of outcomes? Yet you accept it with batting average solely out of familiarity. Also you cslll SLG flawed and OPS flawed, but you haven’t yet said what the flaws are...
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Not many offensive stats do include stolen bases. There was a stat called “total average” that included SB, CS, and just about everything else from a box score. But it was abandoned for being too cumbersome. Of course, this was in the days before computers. Not sure why it never resurfaced...
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Actually batting average measure the percentage of time a batter gets a hit in plate appearances where he doesn’t see four bad pitches, get hit by a pitch, voluntarily bunt runners over or manage to hit a deep fly ball with a runner on third and less than 2 out, unless that runner is slow. It really doesn’t measure much and all it tells you is the overwhelmed majority of players in MLB get a hit between 20% and 30% of the time. And the ones who fall outside that range don’t fall outside by much. I completely disagree on SLG. Yes it actually is a good measure for power. And OPS, while not perfect, has shown itself to be a much more comprehensive and reliable stat for offensive performance. Batting average tells you nothing. It really tells you all hitters are basically equal. SLG and OS are where the hitters desperate...
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The rotation has been outstanding lately. To dismiss Brasier’s ineffectiveness so quickly might be a big mistake. The man has almost no track record of success. The Sox bullpen might not be good enough to support this team while waiting to see if Thornburg and Brewer ever come around....
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Brasier has only thrown 34 innings in the past 5 years. His track record is less than Thornburg’s. He might not actually be the pitcher DD thought he is...
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No. The catching situation is NOT the problem. Having Swihart on the roster won’t give Cora better bullpen options so he doesn’t keep trying to squeeze 8 innings out of starters...
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And I get that with Hembree, he has a track record and it’s only been 6 weeks. And with Thornburg, his velocity is back up and it might be a good sign. At some point with those two, it might be time to make a decision. But why are Brewer and Weber still in the majors? Seriously. It’s like Dombrowski is just filling roster spots with anyone, because Cora clearly has no intention of using either one any time soon...
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Yes. Either Cora trusts very, very few relievers in his bullpen or just keeps falling asleep in the 7th and 8th innings of games, before he takes out the starter. This is clearly on Dombrowski. But hey, at least Pearce is carrying the team. Oh wait...
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What are the chances of Porcello being offered a contract extension?
notin replied to TylerD's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Would fans like to see Porcello extended if it means non-tendering Bradley? -
Pedroia out with renewed left knee pain
notin replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
He’s been ok. But it’s not like he can’t be moved to another position... -
Pedroia out with renewed left knee pain
notin replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
R I’m sure the performance of Chavis is a factor for some people in their wanting Pedroia to retire, but I doubt it’s going to matter. As long as Chavis continues to hit, they’ll find a position for him. It’s not like he’s killing it at 2b... -
They would need to add Dalbec to the 40-man roster first. They certainly have DFA-able deadweight to make room to do so, but it hasn’t been done yet...
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Except that he caught that ball about 3 full steps before he leapt in to the stands. If you’re going to make a catch and run that far before you jump into the stands, I assume it’s because you just caught a touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers....
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Pedroia out with renewed left knee pain
notin replied to jacksonianmarch's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
They’re not going to bench Chavis until Chavis himself gives them good reason. DH, 1b,3b, LF. They’ll find somewhere to play him as long as he keeps this up... -
And maybe answers like the one I’m about to give lead to interpretations of condescension. (But it isn’t.) That’s not what the metrics do. Really like any stat, they just tell you what happened. Eye testing defense is more fun because you get to watch games, but it’s very weak comparatively because - that word again - opportunities are imbalanced. A couple weeks back, some were calling Kiermaier overrated because he didn’t look like anything special for 3 games. Obviously Bradley can, will, and has had 3 game stretches where he didn’t do anything special either. Hey, if the chances are not there, we can’t judge him on the plays he doesn’t make. I would say maybe the proper argument for defensive metrics isn’t about “who is the best defender” at position X; but rather “whose having the best season defending” position X. Or best career. Or best 3-season stretch. You get the idea. Even hitting comps are applicable. Jorge Polanco and Josh Reddick are tied for the AL lead in batting average. Are either of these guys really the best hitter in the AL?
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Well, are hitting opportunities as guaranteed as we like to believe? It’s only been in the last 20 years or so anyone has decided OBP and walks actually do matter. But before than, hitters who drew a lot of walks had numerous plate appearances with few of any hit table pitches. And we considered them lesser hitters for it. Former Braves’ shortstop Rafael Ramirez was notorious for never drawing walks. When asked about it, he once said “You have to hit like a man!” What does that say about opportunities where the hitter had few if any actual chances? Even from a player’s viewpoint?
