notin
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Everything posted by notin
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I think a lot of what we call choking (or chocking) is sometimes based on a pitcher's fatigue as well. Cole threw his career high in IP during the regular season in 2019, and then threw another 35 IP in the ALDS and ALCS. What we are calling choking might be simple fatigue. He did have his velocity going for him the other night, but he was still also very hittable and probably was not hitting his spots. And a loss of command can certainly be attributable to workload, as it can effect the repeatability of his release point...
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Well, the Astros starting pitching was superior to the Yankees. But I get where you're going. Of course, in 2015, the Mets' starting pitching was superior to the Royals' SP as well. It is possible to make it a bullpen game...
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Game Thread Oct 23/19 Nats (Strasburg) @ Astros (Verlander)
notin replied to TylerD's topic in Other Baseball
No, I am questioning the moving goal posts here. Before 2018, there were many saying Price was a choker in the postseason. (I believe you were among them.) But now choking has been limited to the World Series (and Sox/Yanks games). And even then, even if i accepted that definition, I don't think Price should be labeled as a World Series chocker after 3.1 IP 11 years ago. Especially since he was only 22 at the time and only gave up one earned run. After all, you have Verlander "entering pre-2018 David Price territory". So Verlander has a 5.73 ERA across 33 IP in the World Series, and he is still not as bad as Price, who had a 2.70 ERA across 3.1 IP? That couldn't make less sense... -
I get why he did. The Sox had bullpen issues most of that year...
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Chih Jung Poo was on the Sox radar as well, but he was the #2 option. (Yes, I went there!)
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Oh there is an absolute risk. I always expected Betts to get something similar to Arenado, who got 8 years, as he will be a little older than Machado and Harper when he hits free agency. But even 8 years is not without risk. And the big question is, how many years will be deadweight? Will he be like Price, and give the Sox one good year and then revert to mediocrity? Or will he manage to be productive for 5 or 6 years and leave a bunch of deadweight years at the end fans complain about? The one team that seems to manage this type of risk well is the Dodgers, who keep bringing Kershaw back on relatively short deals...
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The counterargument is that the teams in the postseason should have a certain degree of pitching, defense, hitting, and managing. They had to be doing something right to make it that far and excel over a 162 game season. That leaves clutch, momentum, and luck. So the question is, how much do momentum and clutch depend on luck?
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I can't guess on numbers, but I do agree it will be exorbitant. (Such an astute observation on my part.) And the Sox need to position themselves to be in the best position to make that offer...
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He apparently used them to increase his bases on balls. That was his big weapon. He rarely swung the bat. Henderson retired as the all time leader in 3 categories - walks, runs, and stolen bases. (Since passed by Barry Bonds in walks.) These are not categories typically bolstered by steroid usage...
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Game Thread Oct 23/19 Nats (Strasburg) @ Astros (Verlander)
notin replied to TylerD's topic in Other Baseball
Except that Price is 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA in 17 IP in 2 World Series. His postseason issues were in games you defined as not "bright lights" -
Not to mention, the Sox bullpen was their main problem that entire season, and the brief turnaround of Timlin in the postseason should not have erased that fact. Leaving Pedro in was probably the smartest choice at the time...
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... which opens the door for other bidders, notably those who lost out on Stanton, Harper and Machado, to come in and use the money they were already prepared to spend and try for Betts...
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Rickey Henderson did it as well. Ok he was 34 years old and not in his chronological prime, but he also was coming off a season with a .906 OPS. So maybe his prime lasted longer than most players'...
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He was not on board with it because he is so unfamiliar with the concept....
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I had no idea Musial was so grainy and blurry. Really what dawned on me was, a great swing is useless unless you know when to use it.
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Price’s contract is pretty awful. Although if you use the trade values on baseballtradevalues.com, he could theoretically be dealt straight up for Chris Davis or Wil Myers. Both have lower AAV’s than Price, but Davis is the unquestioned worst player in MLB. Myers, on the other hand, actually makes sense. His AAV is $18mill less than Price’s, and he’s owed $30mill less overall. And, depending on the fates of Bradley and Betts, the Sox are likely to need outfielders, and have none in the minors that can step in. And San Diego has a glut of outfielders, but apparently is hoping to add a veteran SP to go with their inexperienced rotation. Price for Myers. Book it...
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And I used to think you could evaluate a hitter by the mechanics of his swing. But then I realized some of the most flawless swings I ever saw belonged to Frank Catalanotto and Gerald Perry (who would later be a hitting instructor in the Sox farm system). Whereas some of the ugliest swings belonged to Ichiro and Bernie Williams. Which set of those two contains better hitters?
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I get that the stat was an example. But there is a difference between objective data and analysis performed with cognitive biases. And the observers’ view of the data - which can be laden with cognitive biases - doesn’t change this. It’s like two people looking at a plant and you ask both what color it is. The first one says “Green.” The second person - the colorblind one - says “It looks grey to me.” But really, regardless of colorblindness or cognitive bias - is the plant green? It has a true, objective, unbiased color regardless of the person viewing it. (And FYI - “Colorblindness or Cognitive Bias” is a great title for a nerdy country song.)
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I think that if the Sox trade Betts this offseason, they're more likely to sign him to a long term deal...
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Who knew Andrew Luck was so influential?
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How does the significance of batting average place a bias in the batting average numbers?
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He has a 98mph fastball. That might get him to #3...
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Imagine how high Groome will be ranked when he actually pitches!!
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Or he might have been nailed at third. Really, Tucker was the one who screwed up there by going back to tag...
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Houston did win the season series against 4 of the 5 East teams, with their only losing record against Tampa at 3-4...
