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Everything posted by notin
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See and this is why I keep making posts abouyt cognitive biases. Bush is a completely different option than LaVangie, as one was a Major League pitcher while the other was a minor league catcher. LaVangie got the job as a show of faith for many years of service to the club. Bush was hired for the job because of his analytical background and probably because he also has been an MLB pitcher. But because both came from inside the organization, the failure of one assures the failure of the other in some eyes. This is a form of Confirmation Bias called Background Bias or History Bias. If Bush had been performing the exact same role in, say, Tampa, would the same questions still exist?
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The Yankees top priority isn't likely to be infield. They could easily go into the season with Voit/Ford-LeMahieu-Torres-Urshela around the infield, and still be looking for a place to play Andujar. So unless Gennett converts to SP and excels at it right away, I would doubt this is a move for them...
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A few assumptions here. What makes you think Bush is no different than previous candidates and what makes you think external candidates are?
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That can be accomplished numerous ways. Not to mention, re-signing Martinez at a lower AAV would help towards that goal. John Henry might not want to pay luxury tax, but he also understands the profitability of a winning team, and he isn’t going to just put some dirt cheap reset team that loses 95 games and costs $175mill out there...
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What makes you think that even if he opts out, he isn’t coming back to Boston?
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Yes. He can bump Andujar back to fourth string DH. Maybe the Yankees can sign JD and the Red Sox can sign Aroldis Chapman...
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What’s your point? Are you implying you know more or your opinion should be taken into consideration?
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Well, many people believe that nothing captures the human element worse than a human, due to our inherent cognitive biases. For example, the belief that an individual can better evaluate defense than trained experts and software is a form of the common cognitive bias called the IKEA Effect, which is the tendency for people to place disproportionately high value on their own accomplishments regardless of actual quality - and so named after the crappy do-it-yourself furniture from IKEA. (And yes, it’s really called that.) And of course, there is the tendency for a person to believe they are immune to cognitive biases, which itself is a cognitive bias called the Bias Blind Spot. Umpires also naturally have their own set of cognitive biases as well, which can make an already crazy difficult job even worse...
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You do realize Dave Bush is a former MLB pitcher who presumably gained some understanding of mechanics in his 9 MLB seasons, right?
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True. Someone has to tell the batter what the robot umps call was...
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As a former player, coach and umpire, I get how difficult the job is for a human. My daughter used to complain about umpire ball and strike zones. I've had to tell her "look, that guy's job is to decide whether or not any part of the ball passed through any part of an imaginery box while it's traveling about 40 miles per hour. It's not easy so cut him some slack." And that's with pre-teen girls playing softball. With MLB umpires, that ball can be traveling upwards of 100mph. If you have ever faced am 80mph fastball, you know how quick it gets on top of you. And in MLB, a pitch that slow won't ever make it to the catcher, and all the ump has to do is decide what side of the foul pole it was on...
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Oh outside of the umpire's union, I doubt anyone thinks umpire's are more reliable than the technology. I am in favor of human umpires making calls because that is the tradition. But the one problem with umpires is that when you start noticing them, it means they are not doing their jobs properly. And when they start making calls a matter of flexing authority, that is an issue baseball will not have to deal with. You say you do not like UZR because it is an argument-ender. Well. nothing in baseball will stop arguments more than robotic strike zone calls. That's what the majority of arguments are about (despite it actually being illegal)...
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Yeah, living in the most beautiful of all US cities could be a real drag...
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When Lance Barksdale allegedly called a strike a ball solely because he felt the catcher usurped his authority by getting ready to throw it around the infield (something that happens so often, umpires should just be used to it by now), it absolutely was a point in favor or robot umps in my mind...
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I would agree. I lean towards to Angels. For all the big money the Dodgers throw around, really how many mega contracts have they given to players coming from other teams in recent years? Te Yankees will certainly be in the running, but if Cole's teammates - people who know him and talk to him, possibly about this subject - think he is headed for So Cal, I have to defer to them on this. The dark horse might be the Padres...
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So you don't think the Sox had anyone capable within the organization? Just because Levangie was an internal hire who did not work out doesn't mean no one else will...
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What he said...
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Yes. They're completely different things. Whether or not trained human observers or software judges the defensive capabilities of a player doesn't impact the outcome of a game. That difference is MASSIVE. You might disagree with JBJ's UZR rating, but how many games did that number cost the Red Sox?
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It's certainly possible, although I do think anyone who hires Scott Boras prioritizes money over everything. Sure, that is a stereotype on some levels, but Boras is an agent who has a reputation for getting bigger deals and not necessarily deals where the player wants to go. Now, there have been exceptions. (Jered Weaver, Xander Bogaerts) Of course, Boras is Cole's agent as well. But bear in mind, Martinez has already had one go round with free agency and choosing his location. That's how we got him in Boston...
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Well, to get the next Cole, you might have to draft very high. Cole was a #1 overall pick...
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I think for some of these guys, iy turns into a situation of them playing for teams they didn't choose. Cole was drafted out of high school by the Yankees, but chose not to sign. He chose UCLA. He didn't choose the Pirates; they chose him. He didn't choose to be dealt to the Astros. That wa out of his control too. Now, for the first time since college, Cole gets to choose where he plays. That might matter a lot to him. For some free agents, they just want the most money. The money won't be an issue here. Sure, he might leave an absurd amount like $20mill on the table, but that might seem immaterial since wherever he does choose will be paying him in excess of $200 million anyway...
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Exactly. This isn’t a case of a pitcher not being used in his normal role, like Zach Britton. If Cole came in and got lit up, then there would be legitimate questions, like “Why use the tired SP and ignore our bullpen?”
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... unless he sucks...
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Well.... That George Clinton can bring da funk...
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It’s been Cole’s teammates saying he wants the west coast. Also worth pointing out Boston teams chose Williams and Russell, not the other way around. Gerrit Cole is a free agent and will be making his own choices...
