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Everything posted by notin
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Oh I still think he is on the radar. Probably more so than Dickerson. But to me, Dickerson makes more sense in a lot of ways, although the money could be an issue...
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Marisnick is a 4th outfielder. A good one to have, but nothing more. Still think Cordero in CF and Verdugo in RF. Renfroe and a LHH outfielder platoon in LF. Corey Dickerson is a good candidate for that final role...
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Are you kidding? So you don’t see the hypocrisy in including Henry? Fairly certain him and his 4 World Series rings count as “making his mark” on this franchise. Not to mention the several billion he’s spent on payroll over the years. But they traded an outfielder coming off a season where he had a .442 OPS!! Clearly everyone must go!
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Some Sox fans might have reached the “He traded one guy so he’s clearly trading EVERYONE” mentality...
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Per 162 games, Hamilton has averaged 45 net stolen bases (SB - CS). Marisnick has averaged 11 net stolen bases. So the value of 34 that I used accounts for all of this. Although technically a CS should be applied to OBP and not SLG. The amount of bases don’t change, but being on base does...
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Also possible they valued Lee a lot less than BTV does. With 3 PTBNL's, the trade is far from complete. And it is very unlikely KC sends a player with a negative value to even out the BTV score. The best reason I can think of for so may PTBNLs is the Sox are trying to gauge what prospects from each team they want (and KC and NYM were willing to give up), but due to the cancellation of last year's minor league seasons, the scouting data is a bit outdated. So they will see what goes on with their select names by August before determining who is coming back...
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Cordero has 3 years of control, so he probably is not trade fodder just yet. Renfroe might be, but he is going to have to make himself look like a worthwhile acquisition...
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If the Sox are out of it in July, ERod and Barnes jump to close to the top if not the outright top. Pitching nets a better return in July than position players typically get...
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Is it? Hamilton's playing time has been sporadic the last few yers, as he has played on 4 different teams since 2018. His last season as a regular, he posted an OPS+ of 69 with an OPS of .626. With Marisnick's OPS+ of 88 in the last two years, it translates to a comparable (as in if they played in the same ballparks, etc.) of about .700. ( I used Tucker Barnhart for a comparison, as he was ..699/88 OPS+ that year.) So it's more like 73 OPS points. That year, Hamilton slugged .327 with 165 TB. If we add in his 34 steals to those total bases, and he has 199, his "effective SLG" rises to .395, which would give him an effective OPS of .694, or 5 points below Marisnick. 5 OPS points is about as insignificant as it gets. There is not much difference. Hamilton will hit fewer doubles, but he will get to second base just the same. And defensively, they rank out similarly in CF. Hamilton's UZR is roughly double Marisnick's, but the same goes for his innings in the position.
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They have too much money invested in Sale and are very reliant on him for a competitive window. The hope for 2021 is they are watchable and somewhat competitive, but 2022 should be business as usual...
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That he has no dealt short time players like ERod, Vazquez and Bogaerts (if he decides to opt out) does make me think this is no fire sale. Benintendi looks like a definite case of selling low, but I don't think he would have been traded if his 2019 and 2020 were any better. And it might not even be a case of selling low if Benintendi does not bounce back all that much. But that is up to Beni...
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And last year he looked like he was 62 at the plate. I'm not a fan of this deal yet, and I seem to be one of the bigger fans of Cordero out here. But there are 3 PTBNL's to be accounted for and some extra budget space. Not to mention, Benintedi has to actually bounce back to make it look even worse...
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Let's not go touting the offensive skills of Marisnick just yet. His OPS+ in the last two seasons in 88, which is rapidly approaching Billy Hamilton territory (career OPS+ of 67). Marisnick is the better hitter, but that does not make him a good hitter. And Marisnick's OBP in those two seasons is .295!! So over 500 PA, he gets on base maybe 8 more times?
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Another trade candidate is Corey Dickerson (.942 OPS vs RHP in 2019). And his salary of $8.75mill for one final year is something the Marlins very likely want to shed, as they are a bunch of cheap mofo's. On BTV, a deal of Dickerson and RHP Jorge Guzman (FV: 40+, 3.50 ERA in 2019 in AA ball across 138 IP, but had potentially fixable some walk issues) for no value Sox pitcher like Colten Brewer saves the Marlins a huge chunk of money and finishes the Sox OF with an actual major leaguer who can hit RHP, and adds a potential pen arm into the mix for the Sox.
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If the Sox get another OF emphasizing economics, they might wind up with Jay Bruce in a LF platoon with Renfroe. Bruce has a .814 OPS vs RHP, which is the best among the remaining LHH outfielders. Another free agent Shin Soo Choo was weak against RHP last yer, but crushed them in 2019 to the tune of an .886 OPS. Neither Bruce (age 34) nor Choo (age 38) appear to have been garnering much interest this offseason. Nomar Mazara has a .781 OPS vs RHP in his career. Less improessive, but as he is only 26 years old there might be some room for him to improve. But at some point, Mazara and his .781 is not exactly a huge jump over just leaving Renfroe out there full time. On the trade front, Alex Dickerson of the Giants (.905 OPS vs RHP since 2018) would also be an excellent trade candidate, assuming a match can be found with the Giants. On BTV, Dickerson's surplus trade value of $6.9 million lines up nicely with Chavis' surplus value of $6.6mill, but do the Giants have any interest in Chavis?
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The Sox now have two viable CF options in Cordero and Hernandez. THey could move Cordero to LF and bring in a CF. Or they could get a LHH left fielder to platoon with Renfroe. One thing we see right now is if the Sox use Renfroe-Cordero-Verdugo, they might have the best throwing outfield in MLB...
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What does it say about the Jays' pitching that they are claiming rejects from the Red Sox?
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Jake Marisnick is basically Billy Hamilton. Hamilton does steal more, but Marisnick cheats...
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Won't be Marisnick, who just signed with the Cubs.,..
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The big issue with this deal is Benintendi made himself expendable. Had he continued on his 2018 pace, he was more in line for an extension than being trade bait. Cordero was always one of those guys scouts loved but was never able to put anything together, largely due to his frequent injuries. He's not the prospect Austin Meadows was with Pitt, but it's the same idea Bloom went after a guy that he should be capable of more than what he has done. Although Cordero is not as young as Meadows was when Bloom traded for him, but also had fewer at-bats...
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That is the plan, but it also should not necessarily mean making the team unwatchable for another year...
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The Sox only saved roughly $3mill, which is probably not enough to bring on Odorizzi. And they still need another outfielder...
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Well, they are not down the full $5mill for Benintendi, but if it leads to Odorizzi, this is a clever move. But if not, it was a definite low sell on Benintendi...
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And his MLB debut was in Petco, which can suppress some hitting stats...
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Cordero is a major leaguer. He's actually a pretty good player. That said, I would not like a deal of just him and Winckowski - whom I never heard of but does not appearto be much statisticaly - for Benintendi, as it is a definite low sell...
