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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. I’m predicting Chavis has less than 2 months left in the Sox organization...
  2. I don’t think teams worry about the extra year of control for a 24 or 25 year old player as much as a 21 or 22 year old. Losing a player to free agency at 31 is vastly different than losing one to free agency at age 27. The extra year of arbitration is a much, much bigger deal, especially if a team is pushing a budget limit...
  3. I think you mean religion...
  4. And who do the Sox turn to if Duran doesn’t dazzle in his first 102 plate appearances?
  5. Brandon Brennan or Marcus Wilson? I’m taking action...
  6. While a lot of talking heads praising the Jays for their Legacy Infield prospects, the Astros were quietly developing some serious quality arms...
  7. It might have been an overpay, but most free agent pitchers are typically older than Porcello was at the time. Had he hit free agency, he would likely have topped that offer. (Injured List mainstay Nate Eovaldi received only a slightly lesser deal 2 years later). You might not like his 4.50 ERA, but there is more to pitching than ERA. Add to that his Cy Young season and that deal was absolutely one of Ben’s better ones if not his best...
  8. And it’s quite possible Cordero gets another shot before Duran...
  9. A prospect’s readiness isn’t defined by the performance of other players. There is a massive grey area between “proven ability to contribute in MLB” and “potentially a lesser pile of dung than current starter.”
  10. I am, but I am operating on the premise that Al Avila isn’t. And while Davis at 3 might be considered a reach by some, it really isn’t one. If Detroit does want him, it will be their only chance to take him...
  11. I am stuck on this Davis-Detroit thing. The Tigers have been loading up on pitchers the last few drafts and have no real hitters. That he is a catcher could just fast track him to MLB on that team. It's rare to see such a perfect fit in the MLB draft, which is why it will never happen. But I am sticking to my guns here. I would lvoe to see the Sox take Rocker, but I get not taking a pitcher so high. It has not worked out for the Sox in recent years. Ball, Groome...
  12. While true, it's not uncommon for us fans to want to see the seduction of potential over the struggling reality...
  13. I astill think he goes #1, although this Marcelo Mayer thing does make a lot of sense for a budget-conscious team like Pitt. If Pitt takes Mayer, then Leiter will go to Texas at #2. Then Detroit might still make still make a surprise pick on Davis, but they probably take Lawlor instead. But I like Davis for Detroit, as he can get to the majors faster and be there for all there up and coming young pitchers like Mize, Manning and Skubal. So if Lawlor and Rocker both fall to Boston, then who should they take?
  14. Downs also has a whopping 156 PA above A ball. Some teams like to let players develop in those developmental leagues...
  15. His not getting a deal in the offseason was one of the biggest surprises as seen from an outsider. Even if you did not like his ERA and WHIP for that one season that was comprised of 59 IP, he certainly had an extremely good track record as an innings eater and was one of the younger starters on the market...
  16. If we start singling out stats as not valuable because one player struggles to get a deal, then we might also need to disregard home runs and OPS. After all, in 2016, Chris Carter lead the NL in home runs with 41 and posted a .821 OPS (113 OPS+). That offseason as a free agent, he was only able to get a 1 year deal for $3mill as a defending home run champion...
  17. I don't think citing a single pitcher who had a good FIP and did not get a contract means the stat is not valuable. It might mean it is simply underappreciated. A lot of his other stats, like his 3.60 K/BB were also very good. Does this mean K/BB should be disregarded? Plus we don't even know how much money he was asking for, or if he was failing physicals or what?. It is odd that a 31yo former Cy young winner could not get a deal but pitchers coming back from Asia like Chris Flexen did. Maybe what this tells us is a lot of GMs did not make a good decision. He also struggled to get a good deal the year before. I think he is just a very underappreciated pitcher overall...
  18. I think it’s as valuable as any other stat. There are things about FIP that you can’t say about WHIP, such as is it doesn’t get influenced by defense and it doesn’t treat home runs, walks and infield singles equally...
  19. Also second in the AL (behind Chicago) in FIP, which is based on solely walks, strikeouts and home runs. Maybe defense is a bigger issue than pitching?
  20. Or as the great philosopher Mick Jagger once said “You can’t always get what you want. But if you try sometime, well, you might find, you want to paint it black.” Or something like that.
  21. I’m predicting it, but if Mayer is going under slot that could change a lot of things...
  22. Really they just seem to struggle against teams from Texas. 2-8 against the Texas teams. 35-15 against everyone else...
  23. They are 3-0 against Tampa, who is the second highest scoring team in the AL...
  24. Notin’s Mock Draft (Top 4 picks) 1. Pitt takes Leiter. Cherington split himself pretty evenly between high school and college players in Boston, but Leiter’s upside, proximity, and being a legacy player makes him the most likely contributor. 2. Texas takes Jordan Lawlor. Plenty of talking heads like him at #1, so I can’t let him slide too far. 3. Detroit takes Henry Davis. The Tigers have a ton of young pitching, no catching, and need the most mature bat in the draft. 4. Boston takes Kumar Rocker. Many have him falling further, but if he gets this far, Bloom jumps at the chance. So there’s your top 4. Book it. Feel free to go fill in names on the Wikipedia page...
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