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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    They already spent a ton on Freeman, who just completed an 8 year $135mill deal for them. He's 31 years old, and while he probably has a few good years left, it also will matter heavily how many years he demands...
  2. notin
    I think those relievers have 0 value because they are not projected to rack up fWAR at a greater pace than their salary increase. Especially Braiser, who is not exactly 25 anymore and could experience some decline in his 30s on some projection models...
  3. notin
    Three to five, with those guys as my choices. Of course, Bloom will probably protect a player or two I never considered...
  4. notin
    What about Ronald Acuna? Senor Atlanta?
  5. notin
    Actually, he might wind up in New York. The Yankees need lefty bats and have the off/on/injured Luke Voit at 1B. If they cannot add Seager at SS, they just lost Rizzo to free agency and are not exactly strangers to grabbing former NL MVPs at high prices...
  6. notin
    I think I'd keep Santos over Feltman, who's barely pitched in the minors and would be a real project for a claiming team and who has simply not lived up to his pre-draft hype....
  7. notin
    I see you demoted Crawford. I had him as a "no way" but you made a decent argument for him. Sp "Probable" is fine with me. Now maybe they protect Ward. Myself, I put him in the "No f***ing Way" category. But we'll see how Bloom feels. I think I would feel much, much differently if he was going to pitch before August this season, assuming he pitches at all...
  8. notin
    Exactly. If a player has 4 years left, and is projected to be worth 12 fWAR over that timeframe, and each fWAR is valued at $8mill. And his projected salary is, say, $1mill for the first year, $6mill in the second, $9mill in the third, and $12mill in the 4th of those 4 years. Then his surplus trade value is (12 * $8mill) - ($1mill + $6mill + $9mill + $12 mill) or $96mill - $28mill, giving him a final surplus value of $68mill. Their system is a little more complicated, but those are the basics of it... And as those performance projections change, and those salary projections change, and as those years pass, they need to be updated accordingly.
  9. notin
    Verdugo and Brad Keller ($1.3mill)? That was probably the best one in his range. Others like Dean Kremer ($1.7mill) and Eli Morgan ($1.6mill) are just too hard to argue as even being upgrades even before we take Renfroe out of the lineup...
  10. notin
    No idea if the sirte is updated to reflect hih non-opt out, but BTV gives Martinez a surplus value of negative $9.6mill. The actual closest pitcher is Lance McCullers at negative $8.6mill, although I doubt Houston would deal McCullers, as he is so fragile that it is entirely possible I have caused him an injury merely by typing his name in this post...
  11. notin
    BTV gives Verdugo a surplus value of $38.6mill and Renfroe a surplus value of $1.6ill. So Renfroe doesn't get much, but the candidates are a long and boring list. Verdugo, OTOH, matches up well with pitchers like Montas ($39.6) and Means ($36.9). And the stretch targets are pitchers like Ranger Suarez and Tyler Mahle (who I find surprising at that value). Of course, Verdugo is also a really good player, so it does get tough to give him up. The hope would be that Renfroe can return a player that Bloom sees actual untapped potential in.
  12. notin
    Well, if the Sox do move another regular, a lot of players are candidates. If the plan is to accommodate Schwarber, it’s possible that a player deemed better trade bait (Verdugo?) might be the plan. Maybe comes down to this question - are the Sox better off with Verdugo and a pitcher who can be acquired for Renfroe? Or with Renfroe and a pitcher who can be acquired for Verdugo?
  13. notin
    Maybe he does. But his agent should be reminding him 1) this is not the year to be a non-superstar middle infielder in free agency, and 2) Kike Hernandez did significantly less last year, and Taylor is probably in that ballpark. But even if his agent forgets that, if Taylor takes the QO, he can still reach those numbers with a 3 year/$22mill or a 2 year/$17mill offer next season. And both of those are a lot more reasonable...
  14. notin
    He is not getting anywhere near $18mill this season any other way. And even if he wants to "cash out", he probably won't do much better than Kike did last off-season. So in this case, "cashing out" might mean playing a full season for next to nothing...
  15. notin
    Schwarber has spent about 40% of his career PAs batting 1st or 2nd. Of his career 2579 PA's, only 1046 have been with men on base, 435 of which have been with just a man on 1B. That leaves only 611 with RISP. He has 35 carreer RBI and 153 career home runs. meaning he has driven in other runners 197 times. (Most sluggers drive in themselves more than anyone else.) Schwarber has come up with 1,476 runners on base in his career and driven in 197 of them. Or roughly 13.3%. Most "RBI men" drive in about 14-18% of the runners on base. So he is just shy of this level of production, and a big part is he does tend to take A LOT of walks that rarely drive in runners. JD Martinez has been better in this regard, driving in 17.9% of all runners on base (571 out of 3,176)...
  16. notin
    Per BTV, a package of Montas and Trivino would cost the Sox Duran plus Whitlock, or Verdugo plus Connor Wong. I do think the Sox can get a decent pitcher for Duran. Honestly, it will probably be a reliever since the Sox are very likely to move Houck:Whitlock to the pen…
  17. notin
    Taylor is absolutely taking the QO…
  18. notin
    Well, bringing Kate Upton to Fenway is nice. But the big concern with Verlander is he turns 39 in February and has thrown all of 6 innings in the past two seasons. He was rock solid at 37, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be the same pitcher at 39. And also, if he turns down the QO, he is probably assuming he can beat the money and/or years. If the Sox want an aging pitcher with injury concerns, Rich Hill would make a ton more sense. Any chance Rich Hill can start dating Kate Upton?
  19. notin
    Also he’s reportedly a very big tipper…
  20. notin
    The Sox aren’t going to meet their pitching needs via free agency with this class, are they? They’ll probably bring back ERod and (against my advice) move either Houck or Whitlock to the rotation and let the other one close, and bring in relievers or minor league depth. They should extend Devers and Bogaerts, but that might not affect anything this season, depending on when they do it and how the deal pays out (and how much is deferred). Of course, zero chance either deal happens until the new CBA is in place…
  21. notin
    And maybe Brandon Belt, although a one year deal is risky for him
  22. notin
    ERod did get his QO. My guess is that of the 14 players to receive QOs, only Chris Taylor and Raisel Iglesias accept…
  23. notin
    I am willing to bet no one has used the phrase “lifetime contract” as much as you have. A 4-year/$60mill offer is probably reasonable for Schwarber, and a very far cry from “lifetime” considering he’s still only 28…
  24. notin
    Well, JD is only under control for one more season. And if the NL finally adopts the DH, he gets harder to retain…
  25. notin
    Also, sheer lunacy
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