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Everything posted by notin
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Well, back then you could go see a movie for 50 cents, a loaf of bread was free, and a Hall of Famer cost you $40,000… -
Just because they can and they should doesn’t mean they will. As long as they win. If they go cheap with Hoskins or Bell at 1b and it works, i won’t complain about not having Alonso around until he’s 38 years old and f***ing up the Sox chances of extending Mayer or whoever…
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I expect it. I will say that those large and long contracts do often lead to ugly, detrimental contracts at some point. And for players already over 30, you don’t always get the great years up front to justify them. Even at his best years in Boston, David Price was NEVER the pitcher he was before coming here…
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I have my doubts about Henry splurging for both Alonso and Bregman. I’m probably not alone…
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I’m curtailing any excitement over major acquisitions beyond returning players. I love the idea of Ketel Marte, but it isn’t remotely likely. I carry significant (and possibly justified) doubts about Alonso. And I think I am more likely to play for the Sox than Kyle Tucker is, despite a talent gap best measured in light years. So at this point, I expect any 2026 lineup to look unexciting at this point. Of course I expect it to be an improvement of the postseason lineup that featured Romy Gonzalez and Nate Eaton on a regulated basis…
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Perfect replacement for Betts? In his first 4 years in Toronto, Springer was worth 9.6 bWAR. In his last 4 years in Boston, Betts was worth 34.2 bWAR. A quarter of the player for half the money isn’t a perfect replacement…
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I think the preference is Alonso. But if you want to avoid strikeouts and improve defense, he’s not the solution either. If you want a guy who yells at pitchers after long foul balls and runs like a penguin on cocaine, Alonso is perfect for you. Alonso reportedly wants 7 years. At age 31, it seems unlikely anyone will give him that. I think the only way he comes to Boston is if Bregman doesn’t return, although that on its own guarantees nothing.
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McCourt owned the Dodgers from 2004 until 2012. In that stretch they won 3 pennants, made 4 postseason appearances and reached the NLCS three times. All in an era with fewer wild card teams. Is that the new definition of miserable? A couple dozen other teams would like that kind of misery. Such a “crappy product”…
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The easiest predictions are often reunions, especially for teams coming off seasons in which they were successful. So it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Sox sign Bregman and/or Giolito. If they do bring back Bregman, then an affordable RHH 1b/DH type is more likely. That puts Hoskins on the radar. My only question would be - is Hoskins a better option than Josh Bell? Bell’s StatCast profile was extremely impressive. It didn’t translate to a superior season stat-wise but that can change for a guy clearly thumping the baseball the way he was. I spent half of July promoting another StatCast hero whose baseball card stats looked weak - 4’2” Andrew Vaughn. Vaughn did get traded and suddenly looked like the second coming of Jimmie Foxx, albeit an action figure-sized one. One thing that MIGHT work against Bell is he is not a true right-handed hitter. He’s a switch hitter whose best numbers come from the left side of the plate. But I’m not so certain that’s a deal breaker…
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But he might be the only American rooting for the Blue Jays…
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Very possible. Especially the younger ones. The Sox do buy into that on occasion (ex: Crochet), so Greene is a possibility. But they would be silly to go overboard to the level of some of the packages on this thread…
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Oh they could easily overvalue him. Looking at it neutrally, Duran has been worth 10.3 fWAR in the past 2 years, while Greene was worth 6.8 fWAR. Over the next 3 years, Duran could be worth 10-15 fWAR and might cost $30mill in salary. Greene over the next 4 years might be worth 12-15 fWAR, assuming he maintains his 150 IP, which is not a given. For roughly the same output as Duran, Greene would be paid $40mill. I think BTV is projecting both like this, which is why they are equal in a straight up trade. If Boston adds in one ranked prospect (Garcia or Clarke), it should give the benefit to Cincinnati. Of course if they overvalue Greene, they could easily hold out for more…
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Duran plus nothing for Lodolo, IMO. I said I would give Duran and Clarke for Greene. If BTV is correct and Password has similar value to Clarke, it should make sense that I’m not opposed to that substitution. Both? Now we are getting a bit pricey. It’s worth thinking about. Not like Password has a clear path to starting in Boston…
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I’m not getting two worked up over the inclusion of Meidroth and Wikelman in the Crochet package. Does anyone really think Chicago drew a hard line in the sand and said “look, the two top 50 prospects are nice, but we’re not dealing Crochet without also getting a high end utility infielder and a fringey relief pitcher that might get released within 3 years. And I am not budging on these demands.” It was probably more likely: Getz: It’s a good start but we could use a little more, even if they’re not exciting pieces. Breslow: How about some of our borderline guys that we can’t squeeze in to the 40 man roster? Getz: Why not? We have room. Our 40 man roster is so weak that we added the bat boy to it last year.
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Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread
notin replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
They weren’t one last season? -
Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread
notin replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I don’t think one has to sit in on meetings with Cherington to know that he isn’t dealing Skenes for that package, just like I don’t need to have a phone conversation with Breslow to know he isn’t dealing Anthony. Skenes would be one of the most valuable trade chips in all of MLB. Safe bet Cherington treats him as one… -
Obviously only Craig Breslow can answer that. He still isn’t responding to my texts, although I should point out it’s very possible I guessed his number incorrectly. Lodolo for Duran isn’t a bad idea IMO. And I would think Cincy would prefer to deal Lodolo over Greene. You made the postseason last year; do you really need to trade your ace to build on that? Personally I think Cincy is more likely to move Singer if they move any SP from last year’s rotation…
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Was Crochet one of the 10 best starters in MLB when the Sox acquired him?
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250 IP isnt a lot of someone is claiming you’re a top ten SP in all of MLB. i go Duran and Clarke as my biggest offer.
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Being top ten in K/9 does not make Greene a top ten SP. ERA-/ERA+ would work, but that very low minimum kind of puts Greene unfairly close to Wheeler. It’s not right considering Wheeler kept up the pace for about 100 more innings…
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Crochet went for two good prospects (Teel and Montgomery) and two fungible AAAA low ceiling throw ins (Meidroth and Gonzalez). Could Greene go for more? Maybe, but probably not much. Certainly not replacing the throw ins with an All Star 5 WAR outfielder. I could see Boston going as high as Duran and maybe Tolle. Or Brandon Clarke, depending on Cincy’s 40 man roster space availability. I doubt any team gives up more than an All Star 5 WAR outfielder with 3 arb years left plus a BA Top 100 pitching prospect. (Both Tolle and Clarke were ranked.)
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“Might”??
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Trading Greene with four years left is NOT what Tampa does. And using what criteria is Greene a top ten starter? I have to think all of the ten best SPs in MLB have more fWAR in the past two seasons than Michael Wacha and average more than 125 IP in a season...
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The Reds most definitely do not “hold all the cards.” Theyre going to talk to multiple teams regardless. I would imagine many team CBOs will be suspicious of a postseason team dealing their cost-controlled ace, especially at a time when the division might be winnable. Teams might suspect the 4 years of Hunter Greene is closer to 2.5 seasons, and quite possibly just 300 IP given his history. Sure teams will gamble on him. But if their asking price tag is one 5 WAR All Star outfielder plus two BA Top 100 prospects, chances are there will be no takers…
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Skubal has been relatively available? Relatively available compared to what? Martian blood? Sasquatch’s cell phone number? Darth Vader’s long lost country album, the one where he covered “Achy Breaky Heart”?
