moonslav59

Nice post. I will add that there are a few trade targets that have 3-5 years of control, and may not need extensions, right now. There are also trade targets like Pablo Lopez and Luis Castillo that would not be extended, but come at a moderate pay level that is cheaper than a FA cost for equal projected production. IMO, we have a ton of young talent and should do a deep dive evaluation to determine which one we can and should trade that makes the least impact on our longer term outlook. This also involves looking at bottle-necked positions and where Campbell fits best, position-wise. The question of Story's health is too hard to predict, so I think we need to plan around zero games from him, but have the flex to be able to play Mayer & Campbell FT, so maybe it makes sense to trade one. (We also have Grissom & DHam, who I think makes a good 2B platoon, and Arias, Romero and other middle IF'er should be ML ready before Story departs.) Making a trade for a young and controlled pitcher would allow more budget space for a big signing, like Soto or Fried/Burnes, or to spread it out between 3-4 really good but not great signings plus Scott. Kinda rambled there, sorry.

I think we will make a trade or DFA someone before the Rule 5 addition deadline. I think Gasper is #1, as we will likely add a catcher, later. He will probably not be claimed, but one never knows. He hit very well, on the farm, last year. My list, in order, of DFA candidates: 1. Gasper 2. Sogard 3. Shugart 4. Horn Murphy, Wikelman, Booser and Bernardino are borderline trade/DFA. I also am pretty certain Abreu gets traded, at some point, and maybe fellow LHB'er DHam, too. We will need space for FA additions, as well, and between all the players listed above, I don't really see any major roster crunch issues. We could add 3-4 Rule 5 guys and 3-4 FA signings and lose nobody of great significance, IMO.

We need a RHB, not Raley, but an interesting suggested trade.

College Football Playoff Rankings: 1. Oregon 10-0 2. Ohio St 8-1 3. Texas 8-1 4. Penn St 8-1 5. Indiana 10-0 6. BYU 9-0 7. Tennessee 8-1 8. Notre Dame 8-1 9. Miama 9-1 10. Alabama 7-2 11. Ole Miss 8-2 12. Georgia 7-2 13. Boise St 8-1, 14. SMU 8-1, 15. Texas A&M 7-2, 17. K St 7-2, 18. COL 7-2 18. WSH St 8-1, 19. Louisville 6-3, 20, Clem 7-2, 21. So Car 6-3, 22. LSU 6-3 23. MO 7-2, 24. Army 9-0, 25. Tulane 8-2 Big games remaining: TN at GA, IN at OHIO St, Army at ND, AL at OK, ND at USC, Navy at Army

My 5 predictions (not my wish list) 1. We sign Tanner Scott at $50M/3. (Closer: check/ LHP: check) 2. We sign Jack Flaherty at $70M/3. (No QO draft pick loss) 3. We sign Clay Holmes at $20M/2. 4. We sign Danny Jansen at 8M/1 with $6M option for 2026 and $1M buyout. (Bridge to Teel) 5. We trade Abreu for Jhoan Duran. (Beef up the pen and make room for Anthony)

I'll fall out of my chair, if we sign Soto. I'll be thrilled, if we sign just Fried and Scott and nobody else. (Assuming we still trade Abreu and DHam for a RP'er and 1 year catcher.)

I can see both sides. Actually, if Soto is paid for 12-14 years, yes you get his prime years but also the backside and the rear side of the backside, too. The total cost may be cheaper for Burnes + Fried than what Soto gets total. The AAV might be about equal, except that the Burnes+Fried deals would expire in 6-7 year, not 12-14, like Sotos might.

Knowing our luck, we sign Fried, Pivetta signs with ATL and wins the Cy Young in '25. I can just imagine all the posters saying how dumb Brez was.

I tried to get some BTV numbers for possible trades and found this: Red Sox Values: 65.2 Anthony, 64.9 Mayer, 38.6 Campbell, 30.3 Abreu, 24.0 Crawford, 18.7 Casas, 15 Montgomery, 11.5 DHam, 13.3 Bleis, 10.5 Arias, 8.9 Cespedes, 7.4 Criswell, 5.4 Wink, 4.2 Romero Targets: MIN: 37.4 Pablo Lopez, 33.3 Joe Ryan, 31.0 Jhoan Duran, 24.0 Ober SEA: 111.4 Kirby, 65.6 Gilbert, 57.6 Miller, 50.5 Woo, -30.6 L Castillo CWS: 42.2 Crochet, 12.2 L Robert DET: 79.7 Skubal MIA: 20.6 Alcantara, 11.5 Luzardo I'm still for Abreu & DHam for Lopez, Ryan, Crochet or Alcantara + Luzardo. Mayer for Gilbert, Miller or Woo. Mayer + Abreu for Skubal? How about Mayer, Abreu & Crawford for Kirby?

Seems like KC and DET are beatable, but they both keep pulling out wins. Top records: NFC: 8-1 DET, 7-2 PHI & MN, 7-3 WSH, 6-3 GB, 6-4 AZ & ATL, 5-4 SF AFC: 9-0 KC, 8-2 BUF, 7-2 PIT, 7-3 BAL, 6-3 LAC, 6-4 TEX

I tend to agree with this sort of thinking, but I do think Soto is a once in a decade type of hitter that becomes a FA. He's better than Manny. I do think I'd rather have Burnes + Fried than Soto.

QO Pitchers: Burnes, Fried, Manaea, Martinez, Pivetta & Severino. You wonder, if we avoid some on this list due to losing a draft pick.

I remember arguing with 700 that including Price was a big negative impact on the return. 700 thought he was a plus at half price. I also agree with notin that we pivoted to Sale & Bogey once JH decided Betts was not returning at a cost more than he allowed. It was a done deal with or without Price.

I think he has more value than some think, but maybe the $7M/yr on BTV is a bit high. I'd guess $4-6M when healthy, and $6-9M, maybe more, if he can hit over .780 for a while and get reestablished. I do not think dumping him for $3M a year savings is worth it, as of now, even if JH promised to use every cent of the savings on someone else.

I did mean it the way you took it, but also in a more general sense, as well.

He has to realize he could be a flash in the pan. 2 years is a long way away, and he could lose value. Many players extend with 2 years to go before free agency. (I'm not high on Crochet.)

Would anyone trade Casas for 2 years of Yandy Diaz (a lefty killer) and Pete Fairbanks (an awesome set-up man?)

6 PM on the 19th of NOV is the Rule 5 protection list date. Dobbins is a cinch. Fulmer is likely. Jh Garcia and Monegro are debatable. Maybe someone else is a surprise. I'm guessing 2-4, likely 3.

I think so, too. Anthony needs to play FT, if he is added to the 26 & 40. If we decide to use Rafaela in a utility role, then we c ould find room for Duran, Anthony and Abreu in the OF. (Rafaela could play CF v LHPs as Abreu sits and be utility vs RHPs.)

Agreed. Expensive for such a role, but fine. He could end up with 400+ PAs as such. He could get many late innings as a defensive replacement, but Duran, Anthony and Abreu are pretty good on D. Rafaela's D at SS is not suited for use as a defensive replacement, but more as an emergency role.

We could see an Abreu-Ref platoon in LF or DH, at least until Yoshida is healthy. We could also see: LF: Duran vs RHPs/ Ref vs LHPs CF: Anthony vs RHPs/ Duran vs LHPs RF: Abreu vs RHP/Anthony vs LHPs or LF: Duran/Ref CF: Rafaela/Duran RF: Anthony DH: Abreu/Yoshida or LF: Duran CF: Rafaela RF: Anthony DH: Abreu/Ref Abreu would be the 4th OF'er, as some shift around when others get a day off.

Ref is a top 15 batter vs LHPs in all of MLB. He HAS TO PLAY vs all LH'd Starters. Our weakness vs LHPs only amplifies that need. Abreu's struggles vs LHPs makes it an easy platoon, whether in the OF or at DH. Also, Duran is no "smasher" vs LHPs. Anthony did well vs LHPs in the minors, but he could struggle vs them in the bigs. Rafaela struggled vs LHPs and RHPs, about the same. Duran v LHPs: Career .632 and .665 in 2024. Abreu: .514/.532 Ref HAS TO START vs all LHPs, no matter what. Only 11 batters in all of MLB has more PAs vs LHPs and higher OPS than Ref at .910. Only 8 have a higher wRC+ (153) and more PAs vs LHPs.

Agreed, but in theory, dumping all of Price's deal would have allowed us to offer more for Betts, but I do not think JH would have done it, anyway.

Yes, maybe we don't have to trade Betts, if we had no Price deal, at all, or even half Price.

Me, too, but with Anthony joining the OF, we need to find a spot for Ref vs LHPs and Abreu vs RHPs. They could play LF with Duran in CF and Rafaela on the bench or AAA, but the DH slot may be open, until Yoshida is healthy, again.