moonslav59

100

I think he might take a $210M/8, which starts in 2025, with an opt out after 2029 (after 5 years with Sox) as the lowest he'd go: $8M 2025 $17M 2026 ($25M for 1 arbs yrs) $20M 2026 $25M 2027 $25M 2028 $25M 2029 (can opt out after $120M/5 with $90M/3 still on the table at $30M a year.)

The Sox love one year deals, and getting comp picks. They may think Campbell is ready to play 3B in 2026.

I can see this point, and I actually think $170M/6 is an underbid. I would not take it, if I was Crochet, unless there was an opt out after the 2027 or 2028 season.

Years of team control remaining and age are huge factors in figuring out a player's worth. Injury history is big, too. How much success matters most of all. These are 4 of the major factors, and I'm not sure anyone else matched even 3 of the four, closely with Crochet. This is a unique situation. We got a very skilled pitcher with a proven, but very short, stint of success, and a history of injury. The biggest plus about getting him vs 30-31 year old FA is his age. For that, we paid way less money but gave up 3 of our top 8 prospects. We obviously felt like he was good enough to be our #1-2 SP'er. He becomes a FA at age 26 and turns 27 (June) that first year beyond our control. That is a great age to be entering the free market. Sure, how well he does over the next 2 years could place him in a range of an AAV of $5M to $45M and one year to 8-9 years, maybe even 10 years. In some ways, it is a big stab in the dark, but I'd rather hitch my wagon to a 26 year old FA to 6 years than a 30-31 year old one to 6-8 years. I could be terribly wrong, and we bash the trade and extension for years to come, but we got Price wrong, too, and just about nobody could have been viewed as a surer bet than he was, back then. Roll the dice and get it done, ASAP!

Maybe Bregman takes a one year deal to try and reset his value. A park like Fenway might make coming here a big advantage.

Crochet is 25. If the extension begins in 2025, he'll have 2 arb years built in at ages 26-26 and 26-27, as his BD is in June. His age makes it so no real comp is out there.

100%. Get it done on the two.

Agree. Just gibe him the $500K more.

An Abreu-Rafaela RF platoon looks great, to me. A more complex rotation like this works, too, if Yoshi is the FT DH: LH: Duran v R/ Ref v L CF: Rafaela v R/ Duran v L RF: Abrey v R/ Rafaela v L We could flip between the two platoons, giving ref some time at DH, when he's not in LF. REF needs to start every game vs LHPs. He is clearly our best bat vs LHPs.

If he plays LF, because we upgraded 3B defense and kept Devers and Casas in the lineup as a 1B/DH time share setup, I'd be okay with the downgrade in LF defense. Yoshi and ref would be essentially replacing O'Neill's playing time in the OF- no great glove, there. Duran would play CF (Rafaela, when he rests,) and an Abreu-Rafaela RF would be a great defensive set-up for CF and RF/

Actually, $170M/6 is $28.3M or about 33rd highest, but if we link it to buying out his arb years, it would be more like $190M/8 or $23.8M AAV- 80th highest in MLB history.

The plan might be Campbell, plus those others returning to the line-up (Story, Grissom and more from Ref.) Casas has been one of our best LHBs vs LHPs, so maybe he helps, too, and word is that Anthony has decent splits, too, as a LHB. Wong has had reverse splits, so maybe he flips that, this year. These guys have to improve vs LHPs, or they should never start vs them: Career .514 Abreu .539 DHam We did trade E Valdez (.327 v LHPs) Romy is .802 vs LHPs and Grissom is .727 vs LHPs. Story is at .963, but that was mostly from long ago.

Yes, that's right, he starts '29 at '29, but turns 30. I'd still push hard for one more year (opt out at age 31.)

Even if we decide to stay under the tax line 1, we have about $31M to spend, according to cots. Scott might cost $16 x 5 or $17M x 4. Bregman's price is hard to project, but maybe it's $27M x 7 or $25M x 8. Maybe the cost drops, if this goes on much longer. We could get both and easily stay below the second line, but not the first. Scott & Grichuk, yes. Bregman and trade for a cheap RP'er, yes. Word is now out that Cora is okay with Yoshida playing some OF. We could sign Bregman and trade Abreu for a real good RP'er and go like this: 1. L Duran CF 2. R Bregman 3B 3. L Casas DH/1B 4. L Devers 1B/DH 5. R Story SS 6. L Yoshida- R Refsnyder LF 7. R Campbell 2B 8. L Anthony RF 9. Wong C Bench: Rafaela, Narvaez, Yoshi/Ref, DHam/Grissom/Romy The pen would add a strong piece from the Abreu trade.

He'll be 29, after 2029, and will turn 30 that following June. 3 years added is nice, but I'd push really hard for that 4th year that brings him to age 30, even if it means offering more cash or bonuses...

Cora on Yoshi playing OF... “Yeah, our outfield defense was great last year, but in a perfect world, if he was healthy, he was going to play the outfield,” Cora said, as relayed by Cotillo. “The throwing part of it wasn’t there so that’s the reason he actually didn’t play. Hopefully, we can get him there and we can use him in the outfield, too.”

Padres are open to trading their closer, Robert Suarez. He's almost 34 and has 3 years left on his deal ($10M, $8M, $8M) and $9.2 tax line. At that age and cost, the return should not be that hurtful.

That's for sure, but what does he consider fair, is the million dollar question.

True. Between no expected extension, wanting to move Devers to 1B and his injury and injury history, it does make sense, but when you see what some good 1Bmen are getting as returns in trade, I'm not so sure it's worth it. Yoshida really messes us the perfect transition to DH by Casas.

Bregman may be the Boras blunder for 2024. I hope his price and/or years drop. It was a little encouraging to hear the language change on "waiting" to maybe tell Devers about a position change until they are "about" to make a kove. I realize others want Scott, but this is not a $200 or $750M auction.

ST'ing a month away and several big names still on the market. Not many are fits for us, but some are.

The consensus by a few of us seems to be $170M/6 years. I had mentioned $200M/7. The opt-out is a big issue, if he insists on one. I'd give $180M/6 or $200M/7 with no opt out at all. I might give $170M/6 with an opt out after 2029 and or 2030, giving us 2 or 3 more years of control, but there is no consensus on this. (I had mentioned after 2028, but that does seem too generous to Crochet.) If Crochet was a FA, right now, I'd be thrilled, if we signed him to $200M/8, which is essentially $20M/2 for his 2 arb years and $180M/6 for the next 6 yrs. An AAV of $25M is doable for JH & Co, but that assumes it starts in 2025 and buys out his $3.8M 2025 arb year. Give him some more front end money to make him happier and increase the actual worth of his contract, maybe... $7M in '25, $18M in '26, $, $25M '27, then $30M x the last 5 years

To steal a notin idea: Seam Murphy is owed $15M x 4 with a 5th year team option at 415M w no buy out. His tax hit is just $12.2M x 5. A straight swap of Story (owed $22.5, $25, $25 plus $5M buy out= $77.5M/3) with a $23.3M tax line. Maybe we give them $16M over 4 years to just about even up the money, but we'd save $6M a year on the tax line. We'd fill our catcher need and our reliable RHB with some power. This would totally rely on Mayer at SS with Rafaela & Romy as the only real back-ups, until Romero & Arias are ML ready. Sign Tanner Scott at $68M/4 or $80M/5. I think this would turn us into a top 3-4 AL team. 1. L Duran LF 2. R Murphy C 3. L Casas 1B 4. L Devers 3B 5. R Campbell 2B 6. L Anthony CF 7. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder DH 8. L Yoshida DH/ R Rafaela RF 9. L Mayer SS Bench: Wong C, Rafaela/Abreu, Refsnyder/Yoshida and one from DHam, Grissom or Romy SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, bello, Giolito, Crawford RP: Scott, Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wilson, Guerrero or Weissert

I think they tend to look at recent 2-3 years numbers more than just the last season, but Duran trumps Crochet in that area. Age should matter, but Duran is not past prime: he's actually at peak prime, now. There should not be regression projected due to his age. I can see projecting better from Crochet as he moves up towards primes, but other Sox player who are pre-prime didn't get the same treatment (see DHam and Abreu.)