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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Some selected fangraphs OPS projections: .858 KMarte .851 Schwarber .831 Alonso .810 Devers .804 Anthony .801 Paredes .789 Abreu & Murakami ,787 Bichette .786 Contreras .784 ESuarez & Bregman .783 Casas .775 Neto & Ozuna .769 Okamoto .768 Yoshida .765 Polanco .763 Duran .755 Donovan, ,754 Bohm & B Lowe .746 Durbin .731 Hoerner .726 Refsnyder .725 Rafaela & Mayer
  2. moonslav59
    Everyday Players in ALE 6.7 Judge NYY 5.7 Henderson BAL 4.8 Guerrero TOR 4.2 Kirk TOR 4.0 Caminero TBR (Neto was ranked 12th in the AL at 3.7) 3.5 Rutschman BAL 3.1 Chisholm & Wells NYY 2.8 Y Diaz TBR & Bellinger NYY 2.7 Alonso BAL 2.6 Rafaela (12th best in ALE) 2.5 Okamoto TOR 2.2 Grisham & Rice NYY Gimenez TOR 2.1 T Ward BAL & Volpe NYY 2.0 Duran (19th) Narvaez (19th) Abreu (19th) 4 in top 21, but bunched near the bottom of the top 21.
  3. moonslav59
    I'll be fair and present the everyday players, later, but here are the top projected fWARs for ALE pitchers only in 2026: 5.5 Crochet 3.9 Cease 3.8 Gray 3.7 Fried 3.2 Suarez (Sox with 3 in top 5) 3.1 Bradish 2.9 Gausman & McClanahan 2.8 Rasmussen (TBR w 2 in top 9) 2.4 Bieber (TOR w 3 in top 10) 2.3 Ponce (TOR w 4 in top 11) 2.2 Rodon (NYY 2 in top 12-4) & T Rogers (BAL w 2 in top 12-14) Yesavage (TOR 5 in top 12-14) 2.1 Pepiot (TBR 3 in top 15) 2.0 Cole (NYY 3 in top 16) 1.9 Baz (BAL 3 in top 17) 1.9 Bello (4 in top 18)
  4. moonslav59
    Player ages: 35-37 Cole, Stanton, Goldschmidt, LeMahieu, Cruz 32-34 Judge, Fried, Rodon, Stanton, Yarbrough, A Slater, Blackburn Sox 35-37: Gray, Chapman 32-34: Contreras, Story, Yoshida
  5. moonslav59
    Anthony played a half year. Slaten for about half. Casas missed all but about 5-6 weeks. Mayer missed about half a year. Abreu and others missed time. Crawford and Sandoval played zero. Of course, neither is Cole, but both had some very nice stretches in their careers. I've tried hard to avoid counting on the promise of returning players, but I'm calling it out when it becomes the basis for why the Yanks will be better than 2025. They are an aging team that made very few changes. Yes, Cole could be a huge boost, and he might lead them to a ring. He could also just be a decent pitcher. Rodon has missed time- off and on- a lot. I'm just saying either count on all injured players on all teams to return to form or none. I'm choosing to be cautious about ours and theirs.
  6. moonslav59
    MLBTR... Reese Olsen out for year. Santander may miss the whole season. Lindor may need Hamate surgery. Astros seeking LHB OF'er for Paredes. Verlander signs with Tigers.
  7. moonslav59
    Why is Cease & Desist so surely better than Bichette & Bassitt? I didn't even want Cease. I liked Okamoto, but he's surer bet than Contreras. Why do we put so much trust in other teams' returning from injury pitching, when we've seen first hand how that almost always works out. I do agree that Rodon should be fine, but "early May" often turns into June or July. I would rank the Jays and Yanks ahead of the Sox, but the Yanks just barely. I think the Contreras OPS might equal Bregman's and our infield defense improved by enough to cancel out the loss of Bregma's defense. To me, it's the loss of Devers that hurt the most, but if we count on Cole's return, why not Anthony, who will be 100% on the first day of ST'ing?
  8. moonslav59
    What did the Yankee, Oriole and Jays franchises do over the winter? The Yanks basically stood pat. The Athletic gave them a C. They added some depth and lost very little. You want to count their players returning from injury, but not Anthony, Abreu, Mayer, Crawford, Sandoval, Slaten, Casas, Masa... The O's added a lot, but started off pretty low. They still don't have an ace but did add Baz. The addition of Helsley, Alonso and Ward were very nice. They lost a couple key players too. The Jays added some big names (Cease & Okamoto) but lost Bichette and Bassitt. We lost Bregman, Gio, Ref, 1/2 Devers but also Buehler. We added Suarez, Gray, Contreras, Durbin and Oviedo. I'm not seeing anyone kin the ALE but the O's doing much better than we did.
  9. moonslav59
    Not what's happening here? Huh? They set the odds based on 50-50 betting. If it's opening odds, they set in what they think will be 50-50 betting, and not on what they think the results will be. The end results may be similar, but vegas odds are not projections.
  10. moonslav59
    Betting odds are not projections.
  11. moonslav59
    "Never a threat?" like you mean when they played them in the actual series they played? They outscored the Dodgers 15-13 in their series. PHI beat LAD 4-2 during the season. I'm not sure why you have to speak in such absolutes.
  12. moonslav59
    Thanks. That's pretty damn close. BTW, Vegas sets odds based on how people are expected and are betting and NOT on who they think will win. They seek to get 50% to 50% and win the vig. They don't seek to pick the winning team- that would be gambling.
  13. moonslav59
    While I do think we should not neglect the fact that no big bat was added, Contreras is no slouch and may feast on pitchers at Fenway. Maybe Durbin can improve on his rookie year, as may Anthony, Narvaez & Mayer.
  14. moonslav59
    Found this... Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodón is recovering from October 2025 surgery to remove bone spurs and loose bodies in his left elbow, putting him on track to return to the rotation in April or May 2026. He has begun throwing and reports improved mobility, feeling "great" during his rehab in Florida. This is his second major elbow procedure following Tommy John surgery in 2019. Late April and early May is the targeted return time for Rodon Cole was really good back in 2023. He has to prove he's back. Gerrit Cole is recovering from March 2025 Tommy John surgery with internal bracing for a right elbow ligament tear and is expected to return to the Yankees in May or June 2026.
  15. moonslav59
    You listed 5 and a fully washed up Goldschmidt being mentioned cannot be serious. Stanton? LMAO. He just turned 86...errr...I mean 36. (If he can get 500-550 PAs, maybe, but you can say that about a lot of players.) Ben Rice is at the age where he could add enough to hit 30. Grisham never hit over 17, until last year, but yes, he can be counted. Chisholm did it once, too, but he counts. Judge might hit 10, if he's on the IL. Of course, he counts. I'd say 5 is pushing it, 4 could happen, and 2-3 is most likely. Now, give Abreu 600 PAs in '25 and he hits 30. Contreras in Fenway might have a better chance at 30 than Stanton. If you can count Rice and Stanton, I'm counting Casas! That's three! No doubt, the Yanks kill us in power and overall offense. Their pitching depends totally on 3 returning from injury pitchers and a 32 year old Max Fried.
  16. moonslav59
    "At best?" Really? You think the chances are too low for us to be third place at best? Of course, we might finish last (at worst...LOL.) I think we are better the the O's and very close to the Yanks. You do know that Cole, Rodon and Schmidt are expected to start the season on the IL, right? We've all seen up front and personal how many Sox pitchers started on the IL and came back to do great, right? Dozens and dozens, right?
  17. moonslav59
    I never said or implied he puts winning above profits. I expect most business owners put profit near or at the top of their priorities. BTW, Tom Werner said "full throttle." I'm not even sure he was lying, as he might have actually believed they were going to spend more. If he knew they were not and said it, I'd agree he was a liar or dishonest.
  18. moonslav59
    soxprospects.com no longer lists them as beginning the season on the IL, for whatever that is worth. If Sandoval is expected to start the year on the IL, what is his trade value worth?
  19. moonslav59
    The severe budget restraints on Bloom were real, and he kept losing top players, year after year. Even when he lost players that were no longer great, the contract money was not returned to the budget. Brez has been allowed to spend more, and it shows. Still, maybe restraints, like NTCs hampered his ability to spend like he wanted. Some like to blame Cora, and we did win less that the Pythagorean estimated. The blame game has been on full display for years. Our GMs have made enough bad choices to be worthy of large chunks of blame- I agree.
  20. moonslav59
    I'm not buying the returning Yankee pitchers point. I've seen our hopes dashed enough to not count on that. Name the 3 potential 30 HR Yanks. I'm not so sure BAL is as good as some think, but I do think they underperformed, last year and COULD bounce back. I think TOR is #1 and NYY, SEA and BOS are closely bunched. It's also not as bad having to play in the toughest division as years past. We don't play them as much.
  21. moonslav59
    It's what he thinks that makes it dishonest. The key component is saying something you know is wrong...not what others know or think is wrong. He may be deliberately lying. I think he may actually think many of those teams had a good chance. I have said before that I think 2021 set the team back, because it convinced management they could compete while being cheap. It took a few years to sink in, and now they are spending more.
  22. moonslav59
    Okay, but maybe the other two? I've never been all that high on Eaton, and I'm not sure we need him for OF depth. BTW, Eaton's Home and Away splits in larger sample sizes than Rodgers with HOU: .458 Home .638 Away Maybe he's really a great batter and KC held him back! LOL
  23. moonslav59
    I think we'll be better than 85 wins, but I know I am biased. We lost a lot of our best hitters. We improved pitching and defense. With so many changes, it's hard to figure wins gained or lost.
  24. moonslav59
    Sounds right, but could number 1 be true?
  25. moonslav59
    I get that. My point was that he may be better than some on the 40. When you have guys like Eaton, Sogard, Seigler and maybe even Monasterio, the bar is not set very high. Hell, less than a week ago, we thought DHam might be starting vs RHPs at 2B.
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