moonslav59

DUCK! An overripe tomato is on it's way towards you!

I can also see the Sox season going south, and I mean like Antarctica south. However, I do not think we need a perfect confluence of everybody having career or near career years to finish first or second in the ALE. There is good reason to think the Jays have a fine team, but they jumped up by 20 wins, last year. Their Pythagorean jump would have been by 14 games and finishing behind the Sox hypothetical win total. I've already beat up the Yanks in previous posts, but in short- they are aging, injury-prone, with several key players starting the season on the IL and did nothing this winter to get better. In fact, their motto is "Let's run it back." The O's made several bold moves, but started so far back, it's hard to know how high they will jump At worst the Sox stayed even, but they are hard to project, too, since they had a major turnover of players, this winter- most at the middle to bottom of the 40. They also continued their shift from Offense to defense (and pitching.) It should be a fun ALE to watch.

I think he already has te rets days planned... LOL. It doesn't matter if it's a LHP or RHP, if it's your day off, you get it. It doesn't matter if you're 10 for your last 20, either.

Durbin is less swing and miss and had a .334 OBP. That's not great, but it beats Story and vs LHPs, it beats Duran, too. Putting him up 1-2-3 would actually "lengthen the line-up more than having him 6th. IMO.

I can't see the Rangers coming close, despite the easier schedule.

I just wish Story had a better OBP.

He had a better "mix" than Tolle, at the time of his call-up and may always have one. I'm trying not to let a 4 game sample size convince me of anything, but he sure looked like a man who knew what he was doing on the mound.

No doubt, the Yanks have talent plus the promise of a Cole return, but they have some serious questions, too. Sometimes I think Sox fans apply different criteria for Yankees than our own Sox players. I don't have to guess how fans think of our own pitchers who missed the previous season: it's on full display, every winter, yet it seems like Cole is pegged to win the Cy Young and lead the Yanks to an improved record. How about Rodon? No doubt- a damn good pitcher, when healthy. He's 33 and has been healthy 3 of the last 4 seasons, so no questions here, right? Same thing with 32 year old Fried. Pencil both in for 30+ starts. Gil looks very promising- I agree-pencil him in, too, despite just 40 GS in 3 seasons. I wish Schlitter was on our team, and his 14 GS in 2025 -his rookie year- and that's more than Early had. I agree he's more of a sure thing than Tolle & Early, but is he a sure bet? Some of us expect regression from Chapman & Whitlock, but is there a reason to expect Bednar to improve? The Yanks had 8 players with 19+ HRs, last season and all are back. That's scary as hell to a fanbase panicking about our team's lack of power. Does a guy who never hit over 17 HRs before last year's 34 (Grisham) really project as a better power bat than Abreu? Maybe- maybe not. How about Bellinger? Is he the model of consistency? Here are his OPS numbers the 4 seasons prior to his ,813 in 2025: .789>.542>,654>.881>.751. Ben Rice looks for real, and maybe Volpe takes a step up. Chisholm hit more than twice as many HRs than 2024. Goldschmidt was in severe decline before they brought him back. Wells is more proven than Narvaez, but they are about the same age and have about the same career OPS. I hear a lot of expecting regression from Narvaez but not Wells. I do think the Yanks look tough, but they have a lot questions- like we do.

I'd have been shocked if you said anything less negative. Tomorrow the sun will rise.

I kinda liked Mayer at 2B, too, because of the platoon option with Romy, and also that Durbin looked real good at 3B, last year. I think a RHB up second makes the most sense, and modern line-up philosophy says put your best batter up 2nd. Since Anthony is leading off, I'm thinking Contreras is our second bast bat, at least v L or as a batter with pretty even splits (.791 career v R.) Story has some speed, but he doesn't get on base enough. Duran or Abreu? Both lefties. Contreras up 4th makes a lot of sense, too. Which of these is better? 1. Anthony L 2. Contreras R 3. Duran L (v R) Romy R (v L) 4. Abreu L 5. Story R 6. Durbin R (v R) Duran (v L) 7. Mayer L (v R) Durbin R (v L) 8. Narvaez R 9. Rafaela R or 1. Anthony L 2. Durbin R 3. Duran L 4. Contreras R 5. Abreu L 6. Story R 7. Mayer/Romy L/R 8. Narvaez R 9. Rafaela R

The #1, #2, #4 & #5 AL teams by projected fWAR play in the ALE. (4 of the top 9 in MLB!) Good thing we don't play the old schedule with super loaded divisional games anymore. We do still play them more, so that will suppress the win totals for all ALE teams, in theory. I think DET & SEA are legit contenders for 6 teams in the AL, but I think there is a significant drop off between DET and #7 HOU, and fWAR projections support that opinion. The O's at #5 are 2.0 away from NYY (#2) and 3.3 ahead of HOU at #7. The Tigers at #6 are 1.2 from BAL and 1.9 from BOS, but are 2.1 ahead of HOU. I don't see HOU beating out both BOS and BAL- maybe one but not both. (We better top BAL!!!)

No doubt on that. He averages about 1 SB per two times he reaches 1B, so a higher OBP would make him much more valuable. Hey, we shoulda got JBJ back in this deal!

With our issue with power, I though maybe Contreras and Abreu could play 160-162 games, if they DH'd 10 times, instead of playing 155-157 games and having 5-7 complete days off (maybe PH in 1 or 2 or 'em.) I'm fine with this choice. BTW, Cora did not say Contreras would never DH. He also did not say Duran would not. If everyone is healthy (except Casas), I think we might see this at DH... 80 Duran (75 in LF/CF) 42 Masa 40 Anthony (115 in LF/RF)

I have no issue projecting us 3rd or 4th. The issue was over the term you used. No biggie. Let's move on. I'd predict 2nd, but I'm not sure who is first. I see us, NYY and TOR as having about the same chance at 1st, 2nd and 3rd. I do think the O's have improved a lot, but they were so far behind, I just don't see a jump that high. Unlike TOR and NYY, they do have the youth to match or exceed ours.

You posted.... What finishing in 4th place "at best" means is that I believe it is more likely we will finish there more than anywhere else That's not the same as saying.... under "the most favorable circumstances" the FLOPS will IMO finish fourth. Under less than the most favorable circumstances they will finish dead last. "More likely than anywhere else" and "at best" are not equal statements. Had you said the first statement right away, nobody would have said a peep.

He needs to get on base to use 'em. Career .283 OBP. That "great" 2024 season saw a .303 OBP. 69 singles + BBs and 33 SBs.

Did I even hint that they needed to or should have protected him? You seem to read things into statements that just aren't there or even implied. The point was that he really wasn't viewed all that highly, until the time we decided to protect him, and even then, we only valued him more than someone like Paez.

So, the idea of keeping Abreu's bat in the line-up while he "rests" at DH is not going to happen. My guess we will face enough "tough lefties," where it's worth giving him a full day off, anyway.

Yes, I only get the Texas Roadhouse one. It's often complementary with a coupon.

Yes, after leaving him unprotected for Rule 5, the previous year. He'd probably make many teams' 40. He's not terrible or hopeless, but he's not really a "prize" in trade.

I think it's hard to value pitching smarts, and that's what I think Early's strength is. He just seems to know where to pitch to. He doesn't have nasty stuff, but it is pretty good. He can still get better. I realize a 4 start sample size is puny, but he was called up before Tolle for a reason.

Sox bWARs from 2025: 6.3 Crochet 4.7 Rafaela & Duran 3.8 Story 3.5 Chapman 3.2 Abreu 3.1 Anthony (half a season) 2.8 Durbin (w MIL) 2.6 Narvaez 2.5 Bello 2.5 Contreras (w STL) 2.4 Whitlock 2.0 Romy 1.1 Weissert 0.6 Early (4 starts) 0.2 mayer & Masa ___________________ fWAR 5.8 Crochet 3.9 Duran 3.8 Rafaela & Gray 3.0 Story 2.8 Contreras 2.7 Anthony & Narvaez 2.6 Chapman & Durbin 2.4 Abreu 2.2 Whitlock 1.9 Bello 1.5 Romy 1.1 Early 0.7 Weissert 0.4 Slaten, Kelly, Mayer & Eaton

That's not what "at best" means.

They must have liked something more than we did.

The Sox were 10th in ISO and 9th in SLG in '25. In 2004, we were first and second. (T 3rd in pitching fWAR) 2007: 8th and 6th. (6th in pitching) 2013: 1st and 2nd. (14th in pitching) 2018: 4th and 1st (6th in pitching fWAR) ____________________________________ From 2004-2013: 2nd ISO/1st SLG & 9th in Pitching 2014-2018: 15th ISO/ 6th SLG & 8th in Pitching 2019-2024: 6th ISO/ 4th SLG & 15th Pitching