moonslav59

I don't disagree, but one could certainly think 6 years of Anthony will outproduce 4 years of Duran. Duran does have split issues, but I don't see him as being the "flash" Ellsbury turned out to be.

Speculation just is not some poster's "thing." I get that. We all know there is a fraction of a percent anything we suggest will come true. Even similar trades seldom come true. For some, it's fun to come up with ideas to hopefully improve the team. Listening to feedback is also part of the fun, for some of us. I think I've been thinking of trades since I was a teen. Call it nuts or pointless. It doesn't bother me. I see it as more pointless to just blast management and keep saying, "They will never do anything like this" to try and improve the team, and offer no constructive and specific ideas on how it might be done. Generalities are equally pointless, if you truly believe nothing will change.

I'd say more than half. I'm not expecting jack in return, even if we pay 2/3rds. I'm looking for a way to trade Yoshida to a team looking to cut salary, and taking back more salary than Yoshida, of pay down enough to make it a "saving" for the other team, but getting a useful, but higher priced, pitcher in return. I admit, it is a longshot, and we'd have to find the perfect fit and willing GM to even have talks of such a deal. More likely, we'd just trade Yoshida to a team and pay $12 of his $18M owed and get nothing significant in return. This would only be worth it, if we actually added the $6M x 3 years savings to another addition, or add that $6M to an offer and get a better pitcher as a FA. Spend $24M x 3, instead or $18M x 3 or $16M x 3, instead of $10M x 3 offers. I'm just talking theory and trying to find some actual examples of what it might look like. So far, I think I have failed in my suggested offers. I'm not sure anyone wants Yoshida, at even $6M x 3, but some teams might be looking to dump higher priced pitchers for someone other than Yoshida at $6M a year.

They won't. I admitted that. My continued talk was directed to the poster who thinks BOS would want more than Casas and Abreu. Hunter Brown is an ace, IMO.

T25th in fWAR is an ace to me. The guy has nasty stuff and is for real. I've seen him pitch a few times. It's not just stats. As for what it costs to get good FA pitchers, last winter may have been a "lucky" winter, but several pitchers with an AAV below or near Gio's did very well and look to continue being good. 18.5M x 2 Stroman 1.0 fWAR (119th) $16M x 2 Wacha 3.3 fWAR (25th) $16M x 1 Montas 1.4 fWAR (93rd) 15.0 x 3 Lugo 4.7 fWAR (6th) 14.0 x 2 Manaea 2.8 fWAR (43rd) 14.0 x 1 Flaherty 3.2 fWAR (28th) 13.25 x 4 Imanaga 3.0 (35th) 13.0 x 1 Severino 2.1 (61st) $7.5M x 2 Fedde 3.4 fWAR (22nd) Only 10 pitchers signed for between $13M and $19.5M AAV: only Gio, Gibson and Stroman came up short. That was a 70% hit rate. (80%, if you count Stroman as a success, which seems semi-plausible.) As a reference, our 2nd best SP'er was at 1.9 (Crawford at 76th) and Pivetta as at 1.8 (77th) I doubt we see that success in 2025 in this price range, and maybe their success will only act to drive up the price for mid-range signings, but it is possible to hit in this range. The Sox have sucked so badly, in this range and lower, that we tend to think it's a league wide trend. It was not in 2024.

Max, Houck is no longer a "no name," and Crawford and Bello have gotten notice, to some extent. While Giolito is a big question mark, he has shown he can produce. Sure, 2019 to 2021 seems like light years away, but his 11.3 fWAR in that time period was 0.1 away from 6th best in MLB. Our pitching was tied for 12th best in MLB, and we lose Pivetta (2.0 was 2nd best), Jansen (1.4 was 6th best) and Martin (0.5 was 8th best.) We are losing 3 of our top 8 pitchers. In contrast, we are losing one of our top 12 batters (O'Neill at #4 and a 2.5 fWAR.) Yes, he is a RHB,a dn we need help, there, but we do have Story and Grissom returning and Campbell offers much promise. Our offense ranked 11th in fWAR, so your point about pitching and batting needing equal attention is well founded, but with 3-4 rookies about to make an impact, all are batters. All offer way more promise than Fitts, Priester, Guerrero and Penrod. We also finished 9th in runs scored, but Fenway had an influence on that. We were 7th in team OPS but here is a surprise: T10th in home OPS (.742) and 8th in Away OPS at .740. Fangraphs has us 26th in fWAR on defense (-40.3.) and 25th in OAA at -18. To me, we need to roll the dice on O and hope some prospects contribute. Add a back-up catcher (maybe a RHB with power) and maybe trade a LHB for a RHB- Abreu or DHam pop in my mind. I just don't see where we put a RHB, except to platoon with Abreu, but if Anthony becomes a FT starter, only benching Rafaela offers a spot for a RHB. Defense needs to improve, but maybe a healthy Story will make a big impact. Anthony and Campbell may help, too. I seriously doubt we make any moves at corner IF, but that and catcher seems to be the only clear areas where a change could be made to greatly improve our D.

The $19M x 2 contract was the largest pitcher contract, since Sale & Nate, both in terms of AAV and total outlay. Of course, it's not like a 4+ year, but it's more than Jansen's $16M x 2, and in terms of SP'er signings. In an overall outlay winter SP'er budget, Gio's contract was not much more than the norm. Here is what we paid for SP'ers since 2020 (not counting minor league deals or under $1M deals): $6M in 2020: $6M x 1 Perez $15M in 2021: $10M x 1 Richards and $5M x 1 Perez $18M in 2022: $7M x 1 Wacha, $5M x 1 Hill and $6M Paxton (really $10M/2: see '23) $14M in 2023: $10M Kluber and $4M Paxton $19M in 2024: $38.5M/2 Giolito $19M in 2025, assuming Gio's option is accepted, plus whatever we might spend. From 2021 to 2024, we've spent between $14 and !19M AAV on the rotation. We already have $19M on the books for 2025, so let's see what happens...

Houston would want more than Casas and Abreu. Hunter Brown is an ace and pre-arb.

I admit, I am not sure how well Campbell or Mayer would do at 3B. Campbell has played there a handful of games, but I cannot see us going into a season with Grissom/Romy as the 3B plan. A lot of how anything we come up with depends heavily on the health of Story and Mayer, and making any plan the relies on both of them to be even 80-90% ready to play is asking for trouble. Our best hope on those two might be as simple as just wishing both are never hurt, at the same time, and just count on them both as one SS. Let's assume that, and any time both are healthy one could play 2B or 3B. The rest of the slots are tough calls. 2B: Campbell, Girssom-DHam, Romy, EValdez/Meidroth 3B: (Devers) Campbell, Grissom, Romy, Meidroth DH & 1B: Casas/Devers (Yoshida or Refsnyder-E Valdez) There are a lot of moving parts, here, and if both SSs are healthy, an actual logjam, but keeping all these guys, except maybe DHam is probably what happens, this winter, anyway. The OF is where something almost surely will go down. Even with the departure of our best power RHB in O'Neill, we still have a solid and deep OF. One can argue too deep, but many have some major flaws or question marks. Duran: He has jumped up by leaps and bounds and seems to have proven himself. He is now an excellent LF'er and plus CF'er on D. His offensive numbers are something no other Sox player has ever done, in terms of SBs, HRs, 2B+3Bs. We tend to think he has overcome the poor L-R splits, but he was only .665 v LHPs, this season- a big step down from last year's .749 v L. For those who love career stats (not me) he has these splits: .783 v RHPs and .586 v LHPs. Abreu: He has even worse splits (.842 v .515.) He plays a plus RF defense, which in Fenway is a plus-plus. He dropped off at the end of 2024, so questions abound about his ability to be an .800+ batter for a full season, and if he can ever overcome the god-awful L-R splits. I think he gets traded, this winter. Rafaela: he may be the best defensive CF'er in Sox history, but his big question is with the bat and plate discipline. The 10:1 K/BB rate is historically horrific. His ability to play SS is a benefit, but I don't think he should play there, again, unless in an emergency. Refsnyder: He should be a platoon DH, who can play LF vs LHPs, in Fenway. He is one of MLB's best batters vs LHPs, an area we need help, so he seems like a keeper for 2025. Anthony: He is MLB's top prospect, but as a prospect, there will always be questions. I'd like to hand him the CF or RF job to begin 2025, but have a solid back-up plan in place. Campbell: He might be best suited for the OF, but we seem to need IF help more.

To me, Duran would still be a blue chip trade candidate. While most teams would prefer Anthony and likely Campbell, Teel or Mayer, he'd still bring back a hefty return. He has 4 years of team control, and while all are arb years that are getting more and more expensive, he will still be grossly underpaid for 4 years. IMO, our trade chips might be ordered like this: 1. Anthony- ML ready & pre-prime 2. Houck- 3 of 3 arbs remaining 3. Campbell- ML ready & pre-prime 4. Mayer- ML ready & pre-prime 5. Teel- ML ready & pre-prime 6. Duran- 4 of 4 arbs remaining 7. Casas- pre-arb for 1 year more 8. B Montgomery- prospect 9. Arias- prospect 10. Fitts, Priester, Sandlin, Crawford, Bleis, Cespedes, Perales, Tolle pretty much bunched together. Most likely trade candidates: 1. LHB Abreu RF/LF 2. LHB DHam 2B/emergency SS 3. RHP Winckowski 4. SS Mayer 5. 1B Casas

Agreed. Saving only $29M and taking on Yoshida would not be something they'd want. That's a lot of savings, but they would likely want a big 4 prospect. I doubt paying even more off Yoshida's deal gets STL to a yes. I do think these types of deals are what we should seek, first.

I don't pay for BTV, but I expected it would take a bigger package. Hunter Brown is the REAL DEAL- something one poster does not seem to understand. How far off was it?

I really like the idea of Campbell or Mayer at 3B. Of course, if Story or Mayer get injured, maybe we can't afford to spare one at 3B, but we'd still have a Grissom-DHam platoon at 2B, so why not give it a try?

Wonder what percent chance we get the 2nd pick.

Mayer and Yoshida ($54M/2) with $6M paid in 2027 for Gausman ($46M/2 and $22M AAV) & Bichette ($17.6M/1 but $11.2 AAV) Total $$$ to Sox: $64M (AAV $31M year 1 and $20M year 2, year 3 is an $16M savings) TOR saves $16M overall and gets a SS for 5-6 years. They may be looking to rebuild, or they could use the savings to bring back Guerrero.

Call Houston... Casas, Dobbins and Abreu for Hunter Brown (pre arb)

$14M for two good pitchers on short term deals? I know JH is a miser, now, but this is cheaper than Gio.

Here is a stab in the dark: Abreu, DHam & Yoshida ($54M/3) +$3.5M cash x 3 years for Erick Fedde ($7.5M/1) and Sonny Gray ($50M/2) Cash: $43.5M to STL and $57.5M to BOS STL saves $14M

fangraphs has him plus on range.

I guess it's better to just repeatedly say the FO sucks and won't do anything to fix our problems than offer suggestions and ideas. Nobody is making suggestions thinking Brez & JH is reading them and may take our advice. We all have different ideas on how we can try to improve the team. I enjoy hearing other ideas, even if some just make me laugh.

Maybe offer him a QO, and if he takes it maybe we trade him. If he says no, we get a comp pick, if he signs.

Good order and comments

Soxprospects has him listed as Rule 5. He will certainly be added to the 40 before that.

Draft Odds: Rockies (61-101): 22.45% Marlins (62-100): 22.45% Angels (63-99): 17.96% Nationals (71-91): 10.2% Blue Jays (74-88): 7.48% Pirates (76-86): 5.31% Reds (77-85): 3.67% Rangers (78-84): 2.45% Giants (80-82): 1.9% White Sox (41-121): Ineligible A’s (69-93): Ineligible Rays (80-82): 1.5% Red Sox (81-81): 1.22%