moonslav59

The post said: Casas and Wink for Arenado, Helsley & Herrera. (Not sure it was based on anything but someone's whim.

Yup, and even adding one year of Helsley is a "no," for me. Add Herrera and I start listening.

I explained "the world" comment was hyperbole. Do I need to explain what that word means? Of course the 897 IP in Japan matters. No, I'm not "star struck." I'm not a gambling man, but I think Crochet is a better gamble than a 30-31 year old guy with a long record of success and IP nearing an almost certain decline period. Yamo had no comp for his situation. None. His contract has no comp, unless you count the two-way Ohtani. His age had very little comp. My point is, so what? Every case is different and we pick and choose what we value most, somewhat and least. I'm looking at Crochet's age, his skillset and yes, a very small sample size, and I happen to think the other factors outweigh the unknown created by the small sample size. It's also unknown if Fried and Burnes will decline like most pitchers who move into post-prime years. It's unknown who will get hurt, but we tend to place more injury risk on those with injury history or who are getting older. A lot is unknown, when you have to project future value and durability. I'm going with the young guy. I'm not suggesting insane money, but I'm not afraid of giving something that has not been given before (like Yamo,) just because very few pitchers are at this point by age 25. Many that were in similar situations, never got extended, and I'm sure many fizzled out, some did okay and some went on to greatness, and likely got much more than the numbers some of us are suggesting. No matter who we pay, it's a dice roll, just as the $324M/12 on Yamamoto was.

We know the number. It is zero MLB IP before signing. (Yes he had over 800 in Japan starting at like age 18. His deal was still made on mostly speculation and observation of his skill level.

Oh, count Japan but not the minors or college. Yamo also got 12 years: we are saying 6 yrs (7-8 if arbs years, included) Yamo also got $324M: we are suggesting $140-$200M, depending on the arb buyout years. BTW, Yamo had no comp before he signed the largest deal for a pitcher only. I'm not sure why "no comp" is somehow the winning argument.

Yup, and we had Gasper, before that. I guess he is the catcher depth, and we will go with Wong and Narvaez. I think Sabol averages about 20 HRs per 650 (Majors and minors.)

How many did Yamamoto have?

Largest Signings in MLB History (first year of deal and age when 1st year started): $325M/12 Yamamoto '24 & 24 y/o $324M/9 Cole '20 & 29 y/o $245M/7 Starsburg '20 $ 31 y/o $218M/8 Fried '25 & 31 $217M/7 Price '16 & 30 $215M/7 Kershaw '14 & 26 $210M/7 Scherzer '15 & 30 $210M/6 Burnes '25 & 30 (Hometown discount) $207M/6 Greinke '16 & 32 $185M/5 deGrom '23 & 35 $182M/5 Snell '25 &32 $180M/7 Verlander '13 & 30 The underlined pitchers are the only two who signed large and long under the age of 29. 9 of the top 12 were signed at age 30 or above. 3 of the top 6 contracts also are the youngest 3 on the list. That's no coincidence. The big difference, of course, is that all these guys, except Yamamoto had long success in MLB, and they were open to being signed by any team, except Kershaw who had his last arb year bought out before the 2014 season. (I guess he could be a comp for Crochet, but he has one year left, not two, plus a big kicker: 2 Cy Young awards and 4 yrs in a row over 200 IP. Huge difference, so still apples to oranges. There is, however, examples of $200M+ for pitchers still in arb year or Yamo's no MLB experience example.

It was mentioned to him by me, when he asked.

I meant our farm has been prioritizing offense over defense and pitching. (Not FA signings.)

Isn't that what we have been doing? Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Teel, Montgomery.... We have not drafted a pitcher, first, since 2016 (Jay Groome.)

I think he'd say no to this, but it seems like a fair first offer. Also, just because he has a $3.8M deal in place for 2025, does not mean an extension has to start in 2026. Sometimes, it helps to offer a younger player a nice signing bonus or rework the deal to include the current year at more money, You then lower the back-end money, so the AVV is lower for the team, and the player makes out by getting more money, up front. My guess is, he 2026 arb would pay him more than $7M, if he does well, but that is a big guess, right now.

Brent Rooker is not a pitcher, and may end up being mostly a DH. He had 3 arb years left and just signed an extension. Instead of maybe $1-3M for this year's arb, he gets $4M, $8M next year and $14M is what would have been arb 3 in 2027. (These numbers reflect his signing bonus of $10M, spread out.) It was basically a $60M/5 deal that added two years of control. Assuming he might have made $20-30M over his 3 arb years, it's hard to figure what they paid him for years 4 and 5: maybe $30-40M/2 or $15-20M AAV x 2. Not sure this helps with projecting Crochet bu he had 3 arbs left.

Bregman turned down a reported $156M/6 deal from HOU. I'm sure he would like to have the optics show he made the right choice, but if nobody offers that, he will have to take the best he can get or go short term with a higher AAV to "save face." Maybe he ends up with $160M/6, which seems fair and maybe doable for JH & Co. That's close to what Story got, when adjusted for inflation. That is just under $27M AAV, and maybe we can bring down the AAV with some creative financing, but that number would eat up just about all of the budget room below the first line- leaving very little for adding a closer or decent RP'er. An Areando trade with paydowns might allow us to sign Yates or Esteves, too.

Guess who will be the number one complainer, if Crochet goes on to greatness, and we "low-balled" him, when we had the chance to extend him. For those of us suggesting we offer him an unprecedented extension, based on his limited MLB IP, I for one am ready to admit to a major blunder, if he comes up way short. It is a major risk/gamble. I think we all know that. We tried to get Betts to extend before he was a year from free agency. He said no, and look how his asking price jumper out of JH's range. This may or may not happen with crochet, if we wait, and there is merit to waiting, but we should be prepared to lose someone great, if we do so- just as we should be prepared to be let down, if we extend him, and he comes up little.

Strider was drafted by ATL in 2020, so if we count him as part of the "recent wave" of Braves pitching prospects, then can't we also count: Slaten, Fitts and Priester, although not in our system from day 1. Couldn't these guys be counted in the first wave 2017-2021? Houck, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock (NYY system), Wink (KCR/BOS systems) and Perales

Baseball America says we have signing agreements with these players (not official yet) Dorian Soto, SS, Dominican Republic Harold Rivas, OF, Venezuela Eliezer Alfonzo, SS, Venezuela Hector Ramos, SS, Dominican Republic Sadbiel Delzine, RHP, Venezuela Christopher Cordero, RHP, Dominican Republic Jhorman Bravo, SS, Venezuela

I did not think of this, and Cochet may not want to go this route, but it's worth a try. Maybe if he insists on an opt out or two, we can counter with a lower guarantee with performance bonuses to hedge our bet, too.

I hope we get a catcher. Helsley would be great, but I don't want to overpay for 1 year. If he is the balancing act for Arenado, okay, but I still want STL to pay down some of Arenado's deal or take Yoshida + $8M x 3 years. We'd save $10M on Yoshida and pay in a sense, take $10M off Arenado's deal, which already has COL paying $5M x 2, and deferments brining the actual cost down lower than it looks on paper. Herrera, Helsley and Arenado would solve 3-4 of our top 5-6 weak areas. RHB, Catcher, 3B defense and maybe 1B defense, mildly. If we dump Yoshida, I'd be thrilled and count that as another weak area addressed. While I have major concerns on Arenado's bat falling off a cliff, and maybe not fixing the RHB issue, I'd still like Herrera and 1 year of Helsley. (Maybe we extend him, too.)

Indeed. Maybe, after this year, we might have 1-3 that we start those sorts of debates about, If Perales can finally get healthy, he could be one. Guys like Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Early and Sandlin need to do things we have not seen them do, before. That does happen, sometimes, but usually there are some early signs of high skills, such as one to two nasty pitchers already developed. The younger pitchers have a more wide-open future outlook. Tolle is 22, but starts his first professional season in 2025. Valera, Cason and Reyes are just 18. Others are 19-20ish.

Pujols, Goldschmidt, Miggy, and many more dropped off significantly and some, quite early in their new deals.

Yes, okay. Crochet might have total confidence that he will be an ace for 7-10 more years, but he has to worry about a major injury, and that is why he should take less than open market prices starting 2 years from now. I think he might take a similar offer to what we have suggested. The sticking point might be on opt-outs and when they are.

I'm not saying expect it to happen, but to me, gambling on a 25 year old is 10 times better than gambling on a 30-32 year old for 7-8 years. We could be pissed after just one year. I get it. Really, I do. We could be upset 3-4 years into a 7 year deal, like with Price. We could be pissed 1-3 years into an extension, like Sale's, then get doubly pissed when he wins a Cy Young, they year we finally give up on him, once and for all. The risk is always there. I like the Crochet risk more than the Burnes, Fried, Price, Sale and many others' risk. You don't. That is fine and understandable, but I'm not sure why you'd have been happier signing Fried or Burnes than the Crochet, or would you be?

He is the exact case to make my point. Guys over 30-31 don't bounce back and give a lot of value after an injury. Freakishly, he did give 1 Cy Young season under the years of that extension, but his overall value was a big dud. If Crochet has a major injury, I like his chances of still giving some value, afterwards much more than if Burnes or Fried get hurt year 1, 2 or 3. I've said over and over, this is major risk and gamble. Signing Fried and Burnes has major risks, too. They also have an almost certain age-related decline projected.

All of it, unless we can talk him into team options with buy-outs. I fully realize, he could not do so great in the next 2 years, and I'd have egg on my face, and maybe he will take less than what I'm putting out here, but I'm thinking the highest I'd go, and I still think it is less than he'd get, if a teams could sign him right now, as a FA, but with the contract starting in 2027. Look what Yamo got, and he had no MLB experience. It's more about age and skill level vs risk, and I think younger players have a better chance at bouncing back from injury or a couple down years than a 30-32 year SP'er signing for 7-8 years. Maybe he takes $120/6 plus $20M for the 2 arb years ($140M/8.) Maybe he won't go past 4-5 years, in hopes of a mega payday, later. I'm just saying I'd try to lock him up until age 30-31. Go prime not post-prime.