moonslav59

I'm afraid JH & Co. agree with you that Hendriks can be counted on a closer, Gio can be counted on as a #2 SP and Whitlock as who knows what key role they assign him for 2025. IMO, I would not discount their "additions," as well as Fulmer's and maybe a full season from Slaten & Criswell and upticks from Weissert, I Campbell and others who underperformed in 2024. No doubt, our top brass values these guys more than we do. I'd count on Hendrick as the back-up closer and top 2 set-up man with an eye on needing depth, in case of further injury. I'd count on Gio as a pretty safe bet to stay healthy and maybe give us 25 GS and 150 IP, but with numbers like a 3/4 SP'er. I'd count on Whitlock to be a decent middle RP or set-up man, but if they slot him as a SP'er his over-under on GS might be 4.5. Fulmer should be viewed as our 9th RP, at best. Slaten should be good. Not sure what we can count on from Criswell & Priester (Fitts & Dobbins) The rest or our pen is as questionable as they are now... (Will they be this bad, is the question for most) Bernardino Kelly Winckowski (make him a SP'er, again?) Booser Weissert I Campbell Horn Guerrero Mata & Murphy I see it like this: __Add___ to replace Jansen Hendriks replaces the 2024 Martin (not the 2023 Martin) Gio replaces Pivetta Whitlock replaces Whitlock (2024 or which one?) Crawford replaces a pen slot from 2024, wich creates a SP opening. Criswell stays as our rotation depth (in AAA) or a mid-relief guy Minimum needed to be significantly better in 2025 (still might not be enough) : SP1 ___ add___ SP2 Houck SP3 Giolito SP4 ___add____ SP5 Bello (SP Depth: Criswell, Wink, Preister, Fitts, Crawford/Whitlock) Closer: ___ add___ RP2 Hendriks RP3 ___add____ RP4 Slaten RP5 Crawford RP6 Whitlock RP7 Winckowski RP8 Fulmer Pen depth: Bernardino, Kelly, Booser, (SP depth list,) I Campbell, Horn, Guerrero I see 4 key pitcher additions needed, at minimum. I will not be surprised if we only add 1-2. (I'd prefer 5-6 additions.)

Of course a lot of $1-4M deals add up and matter, but let's look at the $5M+ deals signed since the Price deal in 2016: Arb contracts not counted: Black= everyday players Red= SP'ers Blue= RP'ers 2016: $300M on SP and $13M everyday 217/7 Price 83/5 Porcello 13/2 Chris Young 2017: $42M RP (not all) $33M (not all) SP, $6M everyday 42/4 Kimbrel trade 33/5 Sale trade 6/1 Moreland 2018: $129 everyday and $9 SP 110/5 JD Martinez 13/2 Moreland 9/1 Pomeranz trade 6/2 Nunez trade 2019: (lost Kimbrel & Kelly) 213 SP and 66 everyday 145/5 Sale (2020 start to extension) 60/3 (120/6) Bogey (2020 start to extension) Opt out made it $60/3 68/4 Nate (re-sign) 6/1 Pearce (re-sign) 2020: 6 SP 6/1 Martin Perez (Pillar was the next biggest deal at 4.3/1) 2021: 15 SP and 14 everyday 14/2 Kike 10/1 Garrett 5/1 Perez II (Renfroe & Marwin at #3M each) 2022: 164 everyday and 22 SP & 27 RP (30, if you count Starhm) 140/6 Story 24/2 (not all) JBJ traded for this 19/2 Barnes extension 10/2 Paxton 8/2 Diekman 7/1 Wacha 5/1 Hill (3/1 for Strahm worked well) 2023: 120 everyday, 50 RP , 19 RP/SP & 10 SP 90/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee) 32/2 Jansen 19/4 Whitlock (extension where most were arb years) Used as RP'er, too. 18/2 Martin 13/1 J Turner 10/1 Kike 10/1 Kluber 7/1 Duvall (3/1 Mondesi trade) 2024: 359 everyday, 94 SP & 10 RP 313/10 Devers 55/6 Bello (extension where most were arb years) 50/8 Rafaela (extension w many arb years included) 39/2 Giolito 10/2 Hendriks (more for 2025) 6/1 O'Neill trade Note: I probably missed a couple guys. I also counted player salary we traded for in full, so that adds too much to those totals, but I think the pattern looks clear: We used to spend more on Pitching than we have done since the Sale/Nate deals. It's way different.

I'm not saying there is no logic to these signings. The Devers one was essential, even if just to save face. I was they guy saying "Devers Forevers." The Story signing made sense, too, in theory, since the Bogey departure seemed immanent. I'm not sure the Yoshi signing was justifiable, with the pitching staff in such a sad state. Signings like Renfroe, Duvall and trades like O'Neill's and JBJ's seemed to fill a need at the time, but pitching was always a higher need. The big part of the Betts trade was Verdugo and not a pitcher. Now, the farm and 26 & 40 man rosters were not always this loaded with quality everyday players, and back when we signed these guys, we had needs at some positions, but clearly our biggest need in every season since 2019 has been pitching. We have not even drafted or signed many pitching prospects since then, and I am fine with that, but only if the plan is to focus financial and trade capital on pitching. It's easy to just say, "We need to focus our frm efforts on identifying, acquiring and developing quality pitchers in numbers," but it's not an easy thing, and even if we knew we could do it, starting yesterday, it looks like several years in the making. So what? We waste an awesome core of everyday players, all under team control for 3-9 years, as we wait for our farm system to churn out pitchers in 3-6 years? Look, I'm not just about spending more on pitching: I've been a big advocate for making a big splash everyday prospects trade for a TOTR pitcher for years and years. If we make a big trade, then the need for spending on pitching would be reduced, but even adding an ace via trade, this winter, what would you say is the next #1 need area? I'd say: 1. SP3 2. Closer 3. Top set up man 4. Good middle RP 5. SP depth 6. another pitcher 7. a RHB (maybe swap a LHB for RHB and not spend a penny more.) Do you see our needs differently? If not, how do we fix the pitching problem within the window we have, which to me is 2025-2028 and beyond, with the peak being maybe 2026-2027.

To me, when you consider where the focus on the farm has been on everyday players, the spending budget should have been something like this: 40% Rotation 30-35% Pen 25-30% Everyday players The other thing is, nearly all of the very largest and longest deals and extensions, after the Sale and Nate deals have been to everyday players. I think 3 of the highest 4 pitching contracts handed out were to RP'ers.

When you draft mostly batters, especially the higher draft picks, and sign mostly batters as IFAs, why do we then spend just nearly half of our money on pitching? Drafting and IFA have been near 75% batter. Free Agent signings & extensions should be near 75% pitching. (Or, trade batters for pitchers like we did in the olden times.)

LOL. A 6 PA sample size.

He spends more on his third highest bat contract than the 3 highest arm contracts combined. It's NOT about NOT spending, it's about not spending what he does spend on pitching. I'm not sure how many ways I can explain it. Here is a short version: He spends- just not on pitching.

More than the $313M/10 he gave Devers?

Those two have nothing to do with this being the best, second best or third best season by Devers.

I disagree on this, too. He was significantly better in 2019 and 2022. OAA +17 2019 -2 2022 -7 2024 (on pace for more) DRS -5 2019 (many more innings) -6 2022 -7 2024 He was significantly worse in 2017 & 2020. He's been all over the map both within almost every season and from season to season. He has done much better since the first 6-8 weeks, but the season has not been his best, IMO.

It's not just a better OPS. I guess we should blame him for blowing away his previous BB% rate. (11% in 2024 and 8% the rest of his career.) .296 BA is second highest ever (.311 in '19.) .371 OBP highest (.361 in '19) .578 SLG highest (.555 in '19) .284 ISO highest by a ton (.259 in '21) .393 wOBA highest by 20 points (.373 in '21 & '22) 152 wRC+ highest by 12 (140 in '21) (Even is 4.8 Spd number is second only to 4.9 in 2019) He has GIDP way less than the rest of his career. He's batting in runs at slightly better than his career rate, and that deserves criticism?

Yes, and being second to Duran in many stats is no slight, either. Duran might get some MVP votes, if the team makes it to the dance.

Okay, let's forget the fact that he has been walked more with RISP or on base and just look at RBIs per 650 PAs. After all, this season is not over. 77 RBIs in 497 PAs= 101 per 650. Career: 632 RBI in 4111 PAs= 99.9 RBI per 650. Take away 2024 from his career, and before 2024, he averaged 99.8 RBI/650 There is a reason why many view RBIs as a team-fueled stat, and not all the individual.

No, the numbers tell the truth: he is batting in RISP at exactly his career rate (15.4%) and just has less ABs than other years. The numbers show he has more RBIs with Men on base than his career norm: 17.7% compared to 17%. Blaming him for coming up to bat less often with men in RISP or on base, or walking more than usual seems harsh. Plus, he basically had a bad 5 weeks in these situations, to start the season, and has been back in form or better, ever since.

I'm not sure this is his best season, despite the OPS+ blowing all other away. Within the context of a down offensive season by the league, maybe it should be viewed as the best. As far as RISP and Men on Base, the sample sizes are rather small, but not insignificant. To cite the .236 BA w RISP without mentioning his .368 OBP hides all the BBs, he's taken. The decent .462 SLG gives him an .830 OPS. Once you take away the BBs and SFs, he's had just 106 ABs w RISP and has 45 RBIs. (Check out other years below my Men on Base point. He is hitting .296 w Men on Base, with a .382 OBP, .565 SLG and .947 OPS. 216 ABs and 61 RBIs. Many view 2019 as his best season, and he did do much better w RISP, but with a lot more ABs. His Men on Base numbers were mixed, but also more ABs: RISP (152 ABs) .336 BA, .387 OBP, .566 SLG and .953 OPS Men on Base (275 AB) .320, .368, .535, .902 and 93 RBI How about 2022, maybe his other top 3 season: RISP: 125 ABs/55 RBIs (.256 BA, .377 OBP, .496 SLG, .873 OPS) Men on Base: 235 AB/76 RBI (.298/.380/.557/.938) Your point is well taken, but with spread out sample sizes of 125-235 ABs, one would expect some differentials. I'm not sure we can read too much into them. Here is an interesting way to look at RBIs and Devers. Career: 632 RBIs in 4111 PAs and 3712 ABs That's an RBI in 15.4% of PAs and 17.0% of his ABs. 2024: 15.4% of his PAs and 17.7% of his ABs. Hmmmm....

Rich Hill started, tonight: 2IP, 0H, 0ER, 1BB, 2K Big night for the top 3 batters: 4-5 Meidroth w HR & 3B (NO BBs!) .866, now. 3-5 Campbell w 2 HRs! 1.433 in AAA (tiny sample) 2-5 Anthony w HR .961 in AAA (small sample) (Teel went 0-5 and has a .265 AAA OPS) Woo won. Wikelman came to pitch, tonight: 5IP, 0H, 3BB, 6K Slaten, not so good, 0.1, 1, 1, 1, 1 POR won 2-1. Castro 2-4 w HR. GRE won 2-0 w Mullins going 5 in relief (1H, 0BB, 6K) SAL in a tight one in the 9th. Yuten 3-5

The CB Tax line has been... $185 '20 (adjusted) $208 '21 $236 '22 $225 '23 ~$224 '24 It might not be as hard to predict as I and others have been indicating. Next year's tax line is $241M, so my guess is the 2025 CB line might be between $210 and $240, but more likely between $220-230M. Let's say it's $225M. After paying relatively low arb costs, due to all being year one, to Duran, Houck and Crawford, I have us at about $145M. That could mean we have a winter AAV budget of about $80. That seems like a lot, but we will need a big chunk of that to just stay even with the Jansen, Martin, Pivetta and O'Neill replacements. Still, we should be able to fill 4-6 slots with some top quality players at $80M. It could be... 4 x $20M/yr 5 x $16.5M/yr 6 x $13.5M/yr A better way might be: $28M SP1 $18M SP3 $12M Closer $10M SP5 $7M RP $5M RP Somehow, this just doesn't seem like what JH will approve, so forget everything I just said.

The guy who had an 8.00 ERA at ND? I'm not sure an early call up was what messed him up.

He doubled his OPS and is up to .443, now.

The thing with rafaela at SS is that it goes beyond too many errors. He has also failed to turn several double plays that do not get counted as errors. His range at SS makes up for a lot of the mistakes, but I do not see it as making up for all of them. The numbers support my observations: +2.5 Range Factor in UZR/150 (career) -9 Outs Above Average (career) -6 Defensive Runs saved Now, this might still be better than some other SSs we have seen, recently, and his .700+ OPS has been better or way better than several other SSs, even Story. The guy is a great CF'er. We need to set up the 2025 roster to make sure that happens 98% or more of the time. (I'd prefer 100%, but mid game moves or 2-3 injuries at the same time, could create a situation where it's the better idea- like it happened, this year. Rafaela in CF improves two "up-the-middle" positions with one slot change. I really like this core of defenders: SS: Story or Mayer 2B: Story or Mayer (DHam is not bad) LF: Duran/Refsnyder/Abreu CF: Rafaela/Duran/Anthony RF: Abreu/Refsnyder/Anthony We might only be weak at: C: Wong & ____ (Teel?) 1B: Casas 3B: Devers If we traded Casas or Yoshida, we could improve our D and O (depending on who we get to play 3B) by moving Devers to 1B and Casas to DH or another team. We can improve our D without making the team any worse on O.

Except, the excrement is not what was intended to not come out.

I think I read that Cora is planning on playing him.

Yes, which he might or might not have allowed to score, himself. I do think leaving with bases loaded and no outs is much different than the same with 2 outs. ERA also does not factor in non error mistakes made by the D, mistakes made by the scorekeeper, park factors and strength of opponents. It's not a bad stat, but many are better.

Good one.

If you have to choose between being grammatically correct or blocking your colon, the choice is a no brainer.