moonslav59

Many injuries seem like bad luck, although some players just seem to be injury prone- maybe due to some physical weakness, poor conditioning, genetics or recklessness. It's hard to know which is which, sometimes. Many predicted injury to Sale, but then some of his seemed fluky. Suddenly, he's Mr. Reliable. A guy like Gio looked pretty durable and dependable, then poof. I will say, I do not think the Sox have had any more "unexpected" injuries than the norm. We've signed guys like Richards, Kluber, Wacha, Hill, Paxton and Hill. We extended Sale, knowing he had something going on. We kept Whitlock starting, while many of us saw the warning signs. One could argue, we got what we paid for and got what was expected, except for maybe Gio. When you look at a team like the Astros, who had 5 homegrown SP'ers, at one point last year, and have seen 4-5 of their top 6 SP'ers out injured all or most of 2024, we can see that we have been woefully outmatched in building reliable and competent pitching staffs, since 2018. To me, it started in 2019, when we failed to replace the departing Kimbrell and Kelly. Teh, we lost Porcello. We lost Sale to injury, almost every year and for almost the whole season. We lost ERod to Covid, Nate to several injuries and never replace Price, either. We got what was expected, IMO.

it's hard to know. I could see one more year of skimping, and maybe it will be more. I've given up expecting more spending, but I will not be surprised if it happens.

I think we win, today.

1. L Duran 2. R Refsndyer 3. R O'Neill 4. L Devers (DH) 5. R Romy (3B, kinda sad for a 5 slot batter) 6. R Wong (2B) 7. L Casas 8. R Jansen 9. R Rafaela Bench: L Abreu, L Yoshida, L-R Sogard & Gasper

Our SS position, this year: 2.1 fWAR (20th in MLB) .756 OPS (11th in MLB) -12 OAA (29th in MLB and 1 ahead of WSH) -7 DRS (24th) and -8.5 UZR/150 (26th) Innings at SS: 606 Rafaela (-8 OAA/-4 DRS) 433 DHam (-3 OAA/-3 DRS) 75 Romy (0 OAA/+1 DRS) 68 Story (+1/+2) 19 Sogard (0/-1) 14 Reyes (-2/-2) While Rafaela brought some stability to the SS position, after Story went down, he was not a net plus. DHam is okay at 2B but not SS. Romy & Sogar should be just emergency depth. We need a healthy Story, which would greatly improve our SS and CF defense. We will likely need Mayer to be a force, or count on DHam-Grissom to do well in 2025.

Our 2B position, this year... -2.1 fWAR (30th) .534 OPS (30th) We've seen 11 players at 2B (all for 9 or more innings) 396 EValdez -7 OAA/ -6 DRS 267 DHam +3 OAA/ +8 DRS 186 Grissom -2 OAA/ +1 DRS 102 Westbrook 0/0 83 Romy -2/-2 78 Sogard -1/+1 39 Reyes 0/-1 30 Gasper -1/+1 14 Rafaela 0/0 11 Wong 0/0 9 Short 0/0 Team: -8 OAA (29th in MLB)/ 0 DRS (t 15th) /-2.5 UZR/150 (23rd) Worst offense and bottom 5 defense. You can see why Brez tried to fix the 2B problem. It did not work. DHam turned into our best 2B for 2024, and I think that was a big surprise. He might have been 5th or 6th on our depth chart in March: 1. Grissom 2. EValde 3. Reyes 4. Westbrook 5. Sogard/DHam (We acquired Romy and Short during the season.) What does our 2B situation look like for 2025? Is Story or Mayer and Campbell in the picture? Is a DHam-Romy platoon good enough? (As back-ups, I'd say yes.)

Our team OPS is about 40 points lower vs LHPs, and Skubal is one of the best. Our work is cut out for us, but we often do very well vs the toughest pitchers, and then fall flat ve unknowns or mediocre ones.

Here is how and when we acquired our top prospects and young players on the roster: 1. Anthony (2nd round draft pick 2022: Bloom) 2. Mayer (1st round pick 2021: Bloom) 3. Kyle Teel (1st rd. pick 2023: Bloom) 4. K Campbell (4th rd comp pick: Bloom) 5. Montgomery (1st rd. '24: Brez) 6. Arias (IFA '23: Bloom) 7. Cespedes (IFA '23: Bloom) 8. Bleis (IFA '21: Bloom) 9. Meidroth (4th rd '22: Bloom) 10. Perales (IFA '19 DD) Sandlin & Fitts (Trades '24: Brez) MLB Players (under control in 2025 or beyond, only) Ben: Devers (IFA '13) DD: Duran (draft '18,) Houck (draft '17,) Casas (draft '18,) Bello (IFA '17,) Rafaela (IFA '17,) Crawford (draft '17,) Bloom: Wong (trade '20), Whitlock (Rule 5 '20,) Story (FA '22,) Yoshida (FA '23,) Refsnyder MiFA '22,) DHam, Abreu & Valdez (trades '22,) Wink (trade '21,) Kelly (MiFA '22) Bernardino (Waiver '23,) Sogard (trade '19,) Brez: Giolito (FA '24,) Slaten (Trade for Rule 5 '24,) ICampbell, Weissert, Grissom, Horn, Priester (trades '24,) Romy (waivers '24)

He was the comp pick for losing Bogey to free agency. (There was some criticism of Bloom for going over the tax line, and the comp pick dropping to the 4th round, but it ended up working out okay, for us.) We also drafted Justin Reimer with the Nate comp pick on the very next pick (#133.)

Ideally, we keep the big 4. We see JH open his wallet to sign 2 solid SP'ers and a closer. We call up some kids and trade Abreu, DHam and Fitts or Sandlin for a solid SP'er, but not the ace a package headlined by Anthony could likely get us. SP: FA, FA, Houck, Bello, Gio (Crawford, Criswell, Priester) RP: FA, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Criswell, Kelly, Bernardino/Booser/Weissert/ICampbell C: Wong & Teel 1B: Casas (Devers as back-up) 2B: Story & Campbell SS: Mayer & Story 3B: Devers & Meidroth LF: Duran, Campbell, Ref CF: Rafaela, Duran RF: Anthony, Campbell DH: Yoshida (Casas, Devers, Ref) That looks very impressive, as long as those "FAs" pull their weight, for once.

The only thing about moving Mayer is that out of all the everyday positions we have, middle infield looks not only the weakest, but also lacks in quality depth. While corner infield lacks more in depth, Devers and Casas look so entrenched, that area seems like the one we don't need much depth, except to cover for injuries. (Maybe Meidroth is enough.) While the Rafaela-DHam-Romy-Sogard combo has brought some stability to the middle infield, while Story has been on the IL more often than not, and those higher on the depth chart to start the season (Grissom, Reyes, EValdez) all flopped, they should not be viewed as long time solutions to the SS and 2B slots. Rafaela belongs in CF, despite the OF bottleneck of talent and minor league depth. A DHam-Romy platoon at 2B is not bad, but I do not like thinking that should be the plan for 2025 and beyond. (Sogard should only be viewed as decent minor league emergency depth.) Now, maybe Campbell can play 2B well enough to fill that need, but with Story's injury history, who can we count on to play decent SS? Not DHam. Not Romy. Not Sogard for any long term role. It basically has to be Mayer, until Arias arrives. While I like Anthony much more than Mayer, our OF is all set, and if Campbell looks better in CF/LF than 2B, we have an even bigger bottleneck in the OF. LF: Duran, Abreu/Ref platoon, EValdez/Yoshida in a pinch (Campbell, Jh Garcia, Cespedes) CF: Rafaela, Duran, Anthony (Campbell, Jh Garcia, Bleis, Cespedes) RF: Abreu-Ref platoon (Anthony replacing Ref for 2026, but is a lefty bat, too) (Bleis, Campbell, Jh Garcia, Cespedes) To me, it makes more sense to go for broke on the best, young SP'ers we can trade for- a guy with 3+ years of team control. A guy that will demand a stiff return package, headlined by Anthony.

Teel's sample size in AAA is growing, but it is still rather small (51 ABs.) It is concerning, no doubt, but let's see how he finishes. I agree that Anthony and Campbell are now our clear 1-2 in the rankings, but that is more about their great play than Mayer's injury or struggles. Mayer has looked fine, when playing. I'm really liking our next tier of rising prospects, more and more: Arias, Jh Garcia and despite the injuries: Cespedes & Jo Garcia. Even Bleis is starting to make some noise. I don't know enough about Montgomery to have a strong opinion, but the talk is, he's a keeper. Meidroth might be the sleeper guy. Our pitchers have not jumped the rankings, all that much, but we seem to have a growing quantity of promising pitchers to hope that some will, eventually. The problem is, the close to the bigs ones have not been too impressive (Priester, Fitts, Sandlin.) Dobbins has done the best, but not many view him as having a high ceiling.

I agree, although I never felt it was a "slam dunk" good deal for the Sox. Initially, I questioned it, but then it kinda made sense, but I based that on the idea that we'd spend the savings pitching. No, I do not view adding Gio as that "replacement." We ended up cutting the budget, so I see it as not using the "savings." I liked the idea of making a strong effort to fix 2B, once and for all. That part failed miserably, for 2024, anyway. When we added Gio, I felt the innings eater would be an improvement over Sale, but I expected another SP'er addition. No Criswell, Anderson and Uwasawa were not ones I felt was what we needed. Had we added someone else, like Lugo, Imanaga or Flaherty, and Gio was able to give us 30 GS ate even a 4.10 ERA, we'd have been able to stomach the Grissom flop. Nothing could help us stomach the resurrection of Sale.

Sadly, I think this is the truth. One could even argue 2027, when the kids are more established.

Atlanta also "could afford" to trade Grissom without hurting their roster, even if Grissom turned out to be very good. The Sox gave up on a great pitcher who had let us down for 4-5 years. There really should be no shame in that, but for hindsight lamenting, after Sale's spectacular comeback. On the flip side, Grissom's spectacular flop only made matters worse, although he did show signs of disappointment the year before. On the extension given by Atlanta, Brez would have been roasted alive had he given that to Sale before the season began. We had been hearing the choir of discontent over his last contract for 4 years. Atlanta took a chance. The Sox paying a major chunk of the 2024 salary made it worth it to them. They must have felt his 2023 glimpse of hope was worthy of an extension, and now they look like geniuses, while we look like idiots. I totally get the points made about why we would trade away pitching (and pay the team to take it from us,) when that was clearly our biggest weak area. That point cannot be refuted, even if it could be viewed as just a hope for pitching, as in hoping Sale could go even 120 IP. The trade flopped, horribly. No doubt. Had we had Sale, this year, and knew than a DHam-Romy-Rafaela middle infield would be decent enough and take over for Story and Grissom, we would not have felt as strong a drive to fix the 2B position that has ranked 28th-30th for 4-5 seasons, combined. In short, on paper, the deal made some sense, if Grissom had worked out and Gio did not get hurt, but that is two "ifs." I guess there were two "ifs" on the flip side, too: Sale resurrecting himself and Grissom being a huge negative in every aspect of his play in 2024. Brez lost this trade. He did do well in the O'Neill trade, and Verdugo has done very little to call that trade a flop, before we can see the return from the young pitchers we got in return. Brez did sign Criswell and put his faith in Houck, Crawford and others, where many of us were scratching our heads. Basically, the thought of where we'd be right now with Sale, instead of Grissom is all that matters to most fans. We'd clearly be in a playoff slot, if he repeated what he has done with ATL, with us. That is the bottom line for many, and it is how GMs are graded out: hindsight. Fairly or not.

Gotta love the rebound by Houck and some other starters. We need them to be solid, going forward. Duran is really on fire! good to see Wong have a nice night. good game!

Current fWAR Leaders 9.8 Judge 9.4 Witt 7.4 Soto 6.7 Lindor 6.6 Duran & Gunner 6.3 Ohtani 5.8 de la Cruz 5.6 Sale 5.4 K Marte 5.0 J Ramirez 4.8 Skubal 4.5 Devers & Ozuna Other Sox fWARs 3.4 Houck 2.8 Abreu 2.0 O'Neill 1.7 Crawford 1.6 DHam 1.5 Bello 1.3 Pivetta, Slaten, Jansen 1.1 Criswell & Ref 0.9 Rafaela & Yoshida 0.8 Booser 0.7 Casas 0.6 Wong

The worst troll we have now is MADSTORK, but compared to some I've seen here and at the old BDC site, he's pretty tame (qand lame.) I don't think many posters have been banned in the last couple years. All I can think of is Swihart's Ghost, but I'm probably forgetting some.

This would be a nice weekend to pick up some ground. We play at DET (We are better on the road.) KCR is at HOU, a hot team. MIN plays TOR, who we just helped get kinda hot. BAL is at COL and NYY hosts STL. We are 3.5 behind MIN, 5.5 behind KCR and 7.5 from BAL.

He had 189 GS in the 6 years from 2010-2015, before we signed him. That's over 31 per season. He had 1300 IP, which was 216 per season. 2.97 ERA (130 ERA+) 3.05 FIP and 1.11 WHIP (4 K/BB) If he had an after 30 career like Scherzer or Verlander, he'd be a cinch. BTW, Scherzer from 2010-2015: 32 GS/yr and 207 IP/yr 3.38 ERA/ 3.22 FIP/ 1.15 WHIP and 4 K/BB Is Scherzer HOF?

And that doesn't always work out, either (see Price.)

The DSL Sox lost 2-0, today, in the championship series. It's their first playoff loss. Next game decides the champs.

Nailed it. Apparently being mildly in the race near the end of August is now called "competitive."

Yup. While some want to minimize the defensive aspect of runs allowed, here is something to ponder: Our staff is... 10th in xFIP at 4.03- just 0.01 from HOU and 0.03 from STL. 13th in ERA- at 96- just 1 behind CLE and 2 behind 4 teams for 8th place. (Note: I'm not praising our pitching or saying they are not a big part of our current standing, but our D has sucked, badly.)

We need pitchers ready for day one, or I'm with MVP: we might as well just plan for 2026.