moonslav59

Fangraphs Projections: Rotations: BOS: 4.8 Crochet, 2.7 Houck, 2.5 Bello, 1.8 Crawford, 1.4 Buehler, 1.2 Giolito LAD: 3.7 Glasnow, 3.4 Snell, 3.1 Yamo, 2.5 Ohtani, 1.0 May, 0.9 Gonsoli Pens: BOS: 1.1 Chapman, 1.0 Hendriks, 0.7 Whitlock. 0.6 Slaten LAD: 0.9 Treinen, 0.7 Phillips, 0.4 Miller, 0.3 Vesla, 0.2 Banda Everyday Players: BOS: 4.2 Devers, 3.3 Duran, 2.4 Casas, 1.9 Campbell, 1.6 Abreu, 1.3 Rafaela, 1.1 Yoshida, 1.1 Story, 0.8 Anthony, 0.7 Ref/Grissom, 0.6 Wong/Narvaez LAD: 6.1 Betts, 5.6 Ohtani, 4.1 Freeman, 3.1 Smith, 2.4 Muncy, 2.3 Teoscar, 1.8 Edman, 1.4 Kim, 1.3 Conforto/Edman On the everyday players, the LAD look to be Betts + Ohtani better than us. Start with our #1 and their #3, and we match up okay. That is pretty damn bad. Our pitching seems pretty close to theirs.

I kinda like the Texans chances at KC, today. I think WSH will give the injured Lions a run for their money, tonight. The Eagles should beat the Rams, tomorrow afternoon and I like Baltimore to win at Buffalo in the Sunday evening game. Detroit should beat Philly to advance to the Super Bowl to face Baltimore, who should beat HOU, next week. I'll take BAL as the champ.

Hey, they were forced to play a guy named Mookie at SS, so how good can they really be?

14 saves in 19 chances. I guess that is "real," but not real good, and certainly not lockdown.

I guess you could argue Hendriks and Chapman are "closers," but when was the last time either was a lock-down closer? I'll save you some time: Hendriks was for 2 - maybe 4- years of his 13 year career: 2021, 2022 and '19-'20. (2019-2022 2.26 ERA and 114 saves) I guess that wasn't that long ago, but the guy had major surgery and turns 36, before opening day. Chapman was for many years (2012-2021,) but that was 3 years ago. 2022-2024: 3.68 ERA & 29 saves. Gotta love the 14 K/9 but yikes on the 6 BB/9. He should not be a "real closer." Maybe Whitlock or Slaten can grow into the role, but when I see our closers for our 4 ring years, I cringe at who we have now. Foulke, Papelbon, Uehara, Kimbrell Those 4 were REAL CLOSERS!

Good point. Estevez would just be adding another good set-up man into a closerless mix. Yates was a closer in 2024, though. Finnegan was, too. I'd take him... maybe over Estevez, for that reason. (He'd probably be cheaper, too.)

Yates turns 38 in March, but he seems to be aging very well. The thing a bout him is that it would be a one-year deal, so the risk is lowered. Yates has 60+ IP for two straight years. 2.21 ERA (188 ERA+) 3.55 FIP 1.01 WHIP 12.2 K/9 and a bad 4.3 BB/9 0.9 HR/9 OPS Against: .407 in '24 (.409 v R/.403 v L) .619 in '23 (.657 v R/.574 v L) I'd roll the dice on a 1 year deal.

I like the deal, and the option is interesting. It is a good thing to know Duran will not be disgruntled.

I think the Dodger pen still includes Brasier. That being said, I do think the loss of Jansen and Martin is significant, despite the drop off by both since 2023. I also see the loss of others as being an addition by subtraction, but I do see and agree with Bell on the point that we have not added a closer. I think Chapman, hendriks and Whitlock have improved the set-up man situation over Martin, but with one being the closer, it might cancel all those gains out. While we don't know how well the pen replacements will do, or how well those who will see their IP grow will do. It's not easy to see how Jansen and Martin's 99 IP will be replaced in kind, but how about these 99 IP? 50 Anderson 4.11 42 Booser 3.38 7 Campbell 16.20 or, these 149 IP? 47 Bernardino 4.37 24 Keller 5.84 18 Horn 6.50 15 Garcia 8.22 14 Sims 6.42 14 Joely 5.93 9 Shugart 4.15 4 Hill 4.91 2 Wingenter 27.00 2 Jacquez 5.40 We need a real closer, and until we get one, I'm not projecting a better pen, but the rest of the pen looks better. 1. ______ 2. Hendriks 3. Chapman 4. Slaten 5. Whitlock 6. Winckowski 7. Crawford/Criswell 8. Wilson The larger improvement, IMO, comes with the AAA depth: Guerrero, Weissert, Penrod, Kelly, Criswell, Fitts, priester, Dobbins Bernardino, Adams, I Campbell, Moran, Mata, N Davis, Harris, Adames, Mills, Stock I'm with Bell: add Yates or Estevez, since we will not get Scott, and now we'd have a better pen, for sure.

Yes, we know your position well. We also know that Cora & Brez have changed his language on Yoshida playing in LF and even about moving Devers to 1B. It's not ideal, and neither is keeping our corner IF D as is. We also have Campbell and Anthony who could crash the party. Much can change, as the season unfolds, not even counting injuries. I doubt we add Bregman or Arenado, so none of this would happen, anyway. There is a chance that one of two from Grissom/DHam/Romy show they can handle 2B in a plus way, which could force Campbell to 3B, but I'm not counting on that, either. Story staying healthy seems like a very long shot, but that coudl also force Mayer to 3B (or Story to 2B and Campbell to 3B.) Last year, we saw O'Neill play LF 70 times, Ref 46 times and others 10 times. We also saw O'Neill and Ref play RF in 87 games. O'neill is gone. If and until Anthony arrives, our OF is not as crowded as it was, last year. OF Games Played (GS) 160 Duran (160) 130 Abreu (110) as a platoon 95 O'Neill (90) missed time w injury 87 Rafaela (72) forced to play SS & 2B 76 Refsnyder (51) mostly as a platoon in RF/LF 15 Others (3) Romy, Dalbec, Wong, Yoshida, EValdez, Westbrook

There seems to be no talk of the Sox being linked to Scott, who may be signing this weekend. Word is, he may get close to $20M x 3-5 years, which seems absurd, but that is a lot less than the money being discussed with Bregman and Arenado. I'd much rather have Scott than Bregman or Arenado. Scott & Grichuk, plus maybe a trade for a catcher should be doable within the budget.

That also fits with the idea of Dr Stangeglove Yoshida playing LF, right?

It's not like the "RAF Man" is making mega bucks, and plans often change. They didn't sign Yoshida to be the DH, either, but things changed. You seem to be overlooking the fact that Duran played more CF than Rafaela in 2024 by 18 games, so RAF could play SS. I'm not so sure it's far-fetched for him to play RF, when Abreu sits. Duran did an excellent job in CF. CF stats: 3 errors in 631 innings Rafaela (5 Outs Above Avg and 12 DRS) 1 error in 810 innings Duran (7 Outs Above Avg and 17 DRS) I do think they want Rafaela to play FT, and if he does show he can hit, they could still find a way for him to play 150+ games without being the FT CF'er. He could play RF vs LHPs, as someone has to. He could alternate his games vs RHPs between CF, 2B, SS and maybe some in RF, if Abreu gets hurt. We know Story is no ironman. Our 2B situation improved over the second half of 2024, as DHam & Romy did much better than EValdez/Grissom/Reyes to start the season, but are any sure bets to play a lot in 2025? There is also no guarantee that even if the plan did turn out to be Yoshida/Ref in LF, that they will start 162 games, there. I'm not happy with the idea of those two playing 150+ games in LF, either, and I'm sure Cora cringes at the thought, but he should also cringe at the thought of Bregman at 2B, Devers at 3B and Casas at 1B, when it could be Bregman at 3B with Casas/Devers sharing 1B/DH. To me, that is worse. To Brez and Cora, maybe not. I get that.

For quite a few years, the talk was about how the Dodgers outspend everyone else by so much, but keep coming up short. Their WS championship in the 60 game Covid season seemed more like the outlier. Last year, despite less season wins than 2021-2023, they won, again. On paper, they look like a mega dynasty type team, and maybe they will be, but they still need to get the job done in the playoffs. They've had 91+ wins, every year since 2013 (Except in 2020, they had their highest win %.) 2 rings in those 12 years and two since 1989. The 2025 Roster: SP: Snell, Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow, May/Gonslin/Sasaki RP: Treinen, Vesla, Banda, Kopech, Graterol, Casparius, Brasier C: Will Smith, A Barnes 1B: Freeman, Muncy 2B: Kim, (Edman, C Taylor) SS: Betts, Rojas (Taylor) 3B: Muncy (Taylor) LF: Teoscar CF: Edman/Taylor RF: Conforto (Betts/Teoscar) DH: Ohtani (W Smith) Did I miss anybody?

It was revealed that Patrick Sandoval had the internal brace surgery and not the full TJS. That makes it more likely he returns, this year. He was surprised the SFG non tendered him, as he had 2 arb years left, where maybe he'd get $12-15M, and not what he got as a FA. Here is the story... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/patrick-sandoval-discusses-surgery-recovery-non-tender.html

That's what they said about 2021, back in 2022.

LOL!

Heard the same in 2023.

Roki signs with Dodgers, of course.

Hope is not a plan, but "the plan." last year was 25 starts from Whitlock. It's no worse now, for him, than last winter. I'd rather have Hendriks as a choice than nobody. I guessed you missed my years long rant on why quality is more important that quantity, and how we need to switch gears towards quality. Fix the rotation by adding an ace not trying to improve your 4's and 5's. Add a lock down closer, not a bunch of mid RP'ers. I applauded the Jansen and Martin signings and agreed with you, that Jansen a year earlier would have been nicer. That being said, it's not a bad thing that out #2 to 25 RP'ers as a group (not one by one) look better than 2024. but I'm still "crying from town to town, "GET A LOCKDOWN CLOSER!" (BTW, you used to bash me for calling the complainers "crybabies," now you throw the term around. Just sayin'... LOL!)

I get your point, and my mantra has been we still need a lock down closer, but I would not say our pen got worse losing Jansen, Martin and a bunch of scrubs and adding Chapman, Wilson, Hendriks, Fulmer and maybe some or more IP by Whitlock, Slaten and others from the better RP'ers we are bringing back from 2024. Our pen looks better and deeper, now, but to me, not nearly as much as it needed to improve. I might be a homer in saying this, but I see more chance for an uptick on our pen projection than a down tick. We have a few pen guys with a history of having some very high skills. We need health and minimal age-related regression, along with just normal luck, in terms of ups and downs. We do have decent pen depth and maybe some AAA starters who could be used in the pen, like Criswell, Fitts, Priester and Dobbins. (And maybe Crawford.)

The one summer we actually did something (Schwarber Robles, Iggy & Shaw) look what happened.

Well. a return of Story creates the replacement for O'Neill with Rafaela playing FT OF.

I would not say Story was ever viewed as a key element of our offense. When we signed him, we thought he was, or could be, but he has never been a force on O for us. Casas has done very well, when he plays. Playing 195 games out of about 320 in 2 seasons is not a catastrophic loss, but it is significant. Devers playing hurt and then missing time hurt, a lot. he was on pace for beating his career high OPS by 70 points, in early August, and he was still over his career high on Sept 1st. He hit .568 after AUG 15th and .470 after AUG 31st (last 19 games.) On the flip side, Duran ha 735 PAs (led MLB) and could have had more w/o hi suspension. Wong, Rafaela and Abreu were healthy and missed no time and all did fine on O. We didn't have great health with our everyday players, but I do not think we had more than the norm, in terms of missing key bats.

When it comes to pitching, we seem to only sign injury-prone pitchers and guys who are known to be starting the season on the 60 Day IL (Paxton, Hendriks, Fulmer, Sandoval.) I don't think our everyday players get hurt more than the average or norm. Story has been our poster boy, but most teams have a Story or two. Casas hurt us, since Dalbec and Copper sucked for too long, until DSmith stabilized the position until Tristan's return. The Devers injury hurt, badly, but 3 injuries is not a lot. Last year, the unplanned injuries to the rotation were Giolito (33 GS) and Whitlock (29 GS missed.) The pen lost Slaten and martin for a few weeks, combined. They just plain succked.