moonslav59

Could be a lot of fun, if this works out on both fronts.

Here are the international free agents the Red Sox have signed so far Dorian Soto, SS, Dominican Republic Harold Rivas, OF, Venezuela Eliezer Alfonzo, SS, Venezuela Hector Ramos, SS, Dominican Republic Sadbiel Delzine, RHP, Venezuela Christopher Cordero, RHP, Dominican Republic Jhorman Bravo, SS, Venezuela Jainer Almanzo, RHP, Colombia Soto is the most notable name among Boston's signings so far. The 16-year-old ranks No. 8 on MLB Pipeline's list of top international prospects. He leads the pack with a $1.4 million signing bonus and has been tabbed as "advanced for his age" in multiple skills, according to SoxProspects. The six-foot-three switch-hitter may not be able to stick at shortstop long-term, but his offensive profile is the key here. Delzine is the top arm among the Sox's international signings so far this winter. The six-foot-five righty can already miss bats with his changeup and his curveball has high potential. SoxProspects believe he has the highest potential "for any Red Sox IFA pitcher in recent history" at the time of his signing.

JH has to be shaking his head on so many swings and misses. Sure, the odds of missing go up when you spend $10M/1 or $18M/2, instead of larger deals, but our record on $10+M deals is pathetic. While Gio had some big Qs, when we signed him, one was not health, so that one seems like just bad luck, but knowing our record, had he stayed healthy, he probably would have done worse than Criswell, anyway.

But hey, cheer up, we graduated from $10M/1 guys like Kluber and Richards to a $20M/1 like Buehler. We graduated from $10M/2 injury projects like Paxton and Hendriks to an $18M/2 Sandoval. We traded good young talent for Crochet and not Wink and Verdugo. The sky is JH's limit!

Yes, and I'm not trying to change your opinion. Certainly a larger sample size is more valid for knowing how good someone is, and in many cases, depending on age, it is often a useful tool in projecting how good someone will be. I think Yamamoto will be good, but there is a lot more doubt for him vs someone like Kershaw, when he signed at age 26. I do think differing ways of judging someone have pluses and minuses, and I have never said going by longer recent sample sizes is a worse way of projecting how good someone will be vs looking more at age and very recent smaller sample sizes and skillset. There are plenty of examples of getting it wrong (like w Price) and how we could have gotten it right (Lester.) No way is a surefire bet, or everyone would use that method. I know I could be terribly wrong about Crochet. I have very serious doubts and concerns, for exactly the reasons you, other and even I have posted about his small sample size. I think I was the first to point out he never pitched over 35 IP, all the way back through college, until 2024. Had we signed Fried (as I wanted us to, instead of Buehler & Sandoval) I'd be very concerned, too, but more about age decline or possible career ending injury, which tends to happen more to pitchers over 30 than those 24-29. We pick our poisons.

The post said: Casas and Wink for Arenado, Helsley & Herrera. (Not sure it was based on anything but someone's whim.

Yup, and even adding one year of Helsley is a "no," for me. Add Herrera and I start listening.

I explained "the world" comment was hyperbole. Do I need to explain what that word means? Of course the 897 IP in Japan matters. No, I'm not "star struck." I'm not a gambling man, but I think Crochet is a better gamble than a 30-31 year old guy with a long record of success and IP nearing an almost certain decline period. Yamo had no comp for his situation. None. His contract has no comp, unless you count the two-way Ohtani. His age had very little comp. My point is, so what? Every case is different and we pick and choose what we value most, somewhat and least. I'm looking at Crochet's age, his skillset and yes, a very small sample size, and I happen to think the other factors outweigh the unknown created by the small sample size. It's also unknown if Fried and Burnes will decline like most pitchers who move into post-prime years. It's unknown who will get hurt, but we tend to place more injury risk on those with injury history or who are getting older. A lot is unknown, when you have to project future value and durability. I'm going with the young guy. I'm not suggesting insane money, but I'm not afraid of giving something that has not been given before (like Yamo,) just because very few pitchers are at this point by age 25. Many that were in similar situations, never got extended, and I'm sure many fizzled out, some did okay and some went on to greatness, and likely got much more than the numbers some of us are suggesting. No matter who we pay, it's a dice roll, just as the $324M/12 on Yamamoto was.

We know the number. It is zero MLB IP before signing. (Yes he had over 800 in Japan starting at like age 18. His deal was still made on mostly speculation and observation of his skill level.

Oh, count Japan but not the minors or college. Yamo also got 12 years: we are saying 6 yrs (7-8 if arbs years, included) Yamo also got $324M: we are suggesting $140-$200M, depending on the arb buyout years. BTW, Yamo had no comp before he signed the largest deal for a pitcher only. I'm not sure why "no comp" is somehow the winning argument.

Yup, and we had Gasper, before that. I guess he is the catcher depth, and we will go with Wong and Narvaez. I think Sabol averages about 20 HRs per 650 (Majors and minors.)

How many did Yamamoto have?

Largest Signings in MLB History (first year of deal and age when 1st year started): $325M/12 Yamamoto '24 & 24 y/o $324M/9 Cole '20 & 29 y/o $245M/7 Starsburg '20 $ 31 y/o $218M/8 Fried '25 & 31 $217M/7 Price '16 & 30 $215M/7 Kershaw '14 & 26 $210M/7 Scherzer '15 & 30 $210M/6 Burnes '25 & 30 (Hometown discount) $207M/6 Greinke '16 & 32 $185M/5 deGrom '23 & 35 $182M/5 Snell '25 &32 $180M/7 Verlander '13 & 30 The underlined pitchers are the only two who signed large and long under the age of 29. 9 of the top 12 were signed at age 30 or above. 3 of the top 6 contracts also are the youngest 3 on the list. That's no coincidence. The big difference, of course, is that all these guys, except Yamamoto had long success in MLB, and they were open to being signed by any team, except Kershaw who had his last arb year bought out before the 2014 season. (I guess he could be a comp for Crochet, but he has one year left, not two, plus a big kicker: 2 Cy Young awards and 4 yrs in a row over 200 IP. Huge difference, so still apples to oranges. There is, however, examples of $200M+ for pitchers still in arb year or Yamo's no MLB experience example.

It was mentioned to him by me, when he asked.

I meant our farm has been prioritizing offense over defense and pitching. (Not FA signings.)

Isn't that what we have been doing? Anthony, Campbell, Mayer, Teel, Montgomery.... We have not drafted a pitcher, first, since 2016 (Jay Groome.)

I think he'd say no to this, but it seems like a fair first offer. Also, just because he has a $3.8M deal in place for 2025, does not mean an extension has to start in 2026. Sometimes, it helps to offer a younger player a nice signing bonus or rework the deal to include the current year at more money, You then lower the back-end money, so the AVV is lower for the team, and the player makes out by getting more money, up front. My guess is, he 2026 arb would pay him more than $7M, if he does well, but that is a big guess, right now.

Brent Rooker is not a pitcher, and may end up being mostly a DH. He had 3 arb years left and just signed an extension. Instead of maybe $1-3M for this year's arb, he gets $4M, $8M next year and $14M is what would have been arb 3 in 2027. (These numbers reflect his signing bonus of $10M, spread out.) It was basically a $60M/5 deal that added two years of control. Assuming he might have made $20-30M over his 3 arb years, it's hard to figure what they paid him for years 4 and 5: maybe $30-40M/2 or $15-20M AAV x 2. Not sure this helps with projecting Crochet bu he had 3 arbs left.

Bregman turned down a reported $156M/6 deal from HOU. I'm sure he would like to have the optics show he made the right choice, but if nobody offers that, he will have to take the best he can get or go short term with a higher AAV to "save face." Maybe he ends up with $160M/6, which seems fair and maybe doable for JH & Co. That's close to what Story got, when adjusted for inflation. That is just under $27M AAV, and maybe we can bring down the AAV with some creative financing, but that number would eat up just about all of the budget room below the first line- leaving very little for adding a closer or decent RP'er. An Areando trade with paydowns might allow us to sign Yates or Esteves, too.

Guess who will be the number one complainer, if Crochet goes on to greatness, and we "low-balled" him, when we had the chance to extend him. For those of us suggesting we offer him an unprecedented extension, based on his limited MLB IP, I for one am ready to admit to a major blunder, if he comes up way short. It is a major risk/gamble. I think we all know that. We tried to get Betts to extend before he was a year from free agency. He said no, and look how his asking price jumper out of JH's range. This may or may not happen with crochet, if we wait, and there is merit to waiting, but we should be prepared to lose someone great, if we do so- just as we should be prepared to be let down, if we extend him, and he comes up little.

Strider was drafted by ATL in 2020, so if we count him as part of the "recent wave" of Braves pitching prospects, then can't we also count: Slaten, Fitts and Priester, although not in our system from day 1. Couldn't these guys be counted in the first wave 2017-2021? Houck, Bello, Crawford, Whitlock (NYY system), Wink (KCR/BOS systems) and Perales

Baseball America says we have signing agreements with these players (not official yet) Dorian Soto, SS, Dominican Republic Harold Rivas, OF, Venezuela Eliezer Alfonzo, SS, Venezuela Hector Ramos, SS, Dominican Republic Sadbiel Delzine, RHP, Venezuela Christopher Cordero, RHP, Dominican Republic Jhorman Bravo, SS, Venezuela

I did not think of this, and Cochet may not want to go this route, but it's worth a try. Maybe if he insists on an opt out or two, we can counter with a lower guarantee with performance bonuses to hedge our bet, too.

I hope we get a catcher. Helsley would be great, but I don't want to overpay for 1 year. If he is the balancing act for Arenado, okay, but I still want STL to pay down some of Arenado's deal or take Yoshida + $8M x 3 years. We'd save $10M on Yoshida and pay in a sense, take $10M off Arenado's deal, which already has COL paying $5M x 2, and deferments brining the actual cost down lower than it looks on paper. Herrera, Helsley and Arenado would solve 3-4 of our top 5-6 weak areas. RHB, Catcher, 3B defense and maybe 1B defense, mildly. If we dump Yoshida, I'd be thrilled and count that as another weak area addressed. While I have major concerns on Arenado's bat falling off a cliff, and maybe not fixing the RHB issue, I'd still like Herrera and 1 year of Helsley. (Maybe we extend him, too.)

Indeed. Maybe, after this year, we might have 1-3 that we start those sorts of debates about, If Perales can finally get healthy, he could be one. Guys like Fitts, Priester, Dobbins, Early and Sandlin need to do things we have not seen them do, before. That does happen, sometimes, but usually there are some early signs of high skills, such as one to two nasty pitchers already developed. The younger pitchers have a more wide-open future outlook. Tolle is 22, but starts his first professional season in 2025. Valera, Cason and Reyes are just 18. Others are 19-20ish.